The SAG Awards’ 2025 nominations have definitely stirred the pot and left the Oscar race feeling even more uncertain than before. While many were predicting that Wicked would garner strong attention from the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), one nomination that caught almost everyone off guard was Jonathan Bailey’s nod for Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture. It’s safe to say his inclusion wasn't widely expected, adding an unexpected twist to the competition.
But the surprises didn’t stop there. The nominations for The Last Showgirl stars Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis turned heads, too. In hindsight, though, it’s not hard to see why both stars would earn such recognition—after all, they have a long track record of being beloved by their peers in the industry. This kind of unexpected recognition is not unprecedented in the SAG Awards, which famously set the stage for Curtis’ Oscar win in 2023 for Everything Everywhere All at Once. That year, Curtis had a fiercely competitive race against Angela Bassett from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin.
What stands out, however, is how these SAG nominations differ from what other major awards bodies are leaning toward. With the growing influence of international voting groups in recent years, the SAG nominations, on the other hand, continue to lean more heavily on American-centric works. Take A Complete Unknown, for example. Despite the film’s rapid entry into the awards season—skipping festival premieres and screening publicly later than most of its competitors—it still managed to rack up nominations for not only lead Timothée Chalamet but also supporting players Edward Norton and Monica Barbaro, and even a Best Ensemble nomination. This impressive haul for a film rooted so deeply in American music culture stands in stark contrast to other releases that are attracting more international attention.
Interestingly, the lack of recognition for international stars has been striking. Actors like Guy Pearce from The Brutalist and Isabella Rossellini from The Last Showgirl were notably snubbed. This feels especially noticeable given the growing recognition of international cinema in recent years. Instead, the nominations went to American actors such as Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice and once again, Jamie Lee Curtis. These kinds of selections highlight a more domestic bias, with international talents often being overlooked in favor of their American counterparts, even when the international actors were seen as strong contenders.
On the flip side, fewer Black actors made it into the nominations than many had anticipated, raising questions about diversity and representation in the selection process. One of the most significant examples of this was Sing Sing, which many expected to be a strong contender in the Best Picture race. While lead actor Colman Domingo received a nod, his co-star Clarence Maclin—once seen as a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor—was left out. The film also failed to land a nomination for Best Ensemble. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, a critical favorite for her role in Hard Truths, also didn’t get the recognition many had hoped for from the SAG Awards, despite her rave reviews. Similarly, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor from Nickel Boys had strong buzz but only found success with the Critics Choice Awards thus far. Even Denzel Washington, who’s been a constant presence on the awards circuit, was snubbed for Gladiator II. It’s worth noting, however, that Washington has more Oscars than SAG Awards, which highlights the ongoing complexities of awards season.
That being said, there were still some notable international nominees who made it through. Karla Sofía Gascón from Emilia Pérez and Yura Borisov from Anora earned nods, as did Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson, a film with an almost entirely Black cast. While this shows some positive movement toward inclusivity, the overall trend still feels a bit off compared to past years when SAG was more progressive in terms of international recognition, such as when it awarded Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture to Parasite and Black Panther.
So, what does all this mean for the Oscars? While the SAG Awards nominations have often been a reliable indicator of who might go on to secure an Academy Award nomination, this year it’s becoming increasingly difficult to draw any firm conclusions. These nominations seem to tell us less about who will be nominated for Oscars and more about who is likely to take home the win. For instance, Conclave and The Brutalist had been seen as dark horse contenders for Best Picture, but after receiving only one or two SAG nominations, it casts doubt on their chances. After all, the Actors branch of the Academy is the largest voting body, and it has a lot of overlap with SAG. It’s worth noting that films like Anora, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked have been faring much better in multiple award circuits, signaling that they could emerge as front-runners.
When it comes to the acting categories, the Best Actor race largely mirrors what we’ve been expecting for the Oscars, with A Complete Unknown continuing to hold strong with its nominations for Chalamet and his supporting cast. However, the Best Actress race has been far more unpredictable. Based on the SAG Awards nominations, it’s safe to assume that all but Pamela Anderson can probably expect an Oscar nomination. Angelina Jolie, long seen as a lock for her role in Maria, failed to secure a SAG nomination, which has severely hurt her chances of an Oscar nod. This absence might just be the final nail in the coffin for her Oscar hopes.
As for the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress categories, these are still tough to call. If anything, the SAG nominations serve as a reminder of just how volatile these categories can be. However, there are a few clear frontrunners emerging from the pack. A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin and Emilia Pérez’s Zoe Saldaña are looking like safe bets to pick up more awards as the season continues, with both of them expected to continue their strong showings right up to the 97th Academy Awards on March 2.
The unpredictability of this year's SAG Awards makes it an exciting time for awards watchers, though it also reinforces how difficult it is to predict the outcome of the Oscars. With nominations that shake up expectations and create new conversations, the race for this year’s biggest awards is far from settled. Will the Oscars follow the lead of SAG, or will we see some shocking upsets? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: the competition is fierce, and the road to the Oscars will be anything but predictable.
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