2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Key Battleground States and What to Expect in the Final Results

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election heads toward its dramatic finale, polls are closing across the country, and the tension is mounting. In some states, the polls are already closed, while in others, votes are still being tallied. But there's one thing everyone agrees on: the race is too close to call in key battleground states, and it's all about the final few states that will decide who will lead the nation for the next four years.

States Already Reporting Results: What We Know So Far
Former President Donald Trump has already been declared the winner in a series of states including Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia. These states, solidly red in past elections, have followed the expected trend, giving Trump an early boost in the race. However, Vice President Kamala Harris is also securing victories in a number of blue states such as Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont, signaling that the Democratic base is turning out strongly.

But the real drama is unfolding in seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are too close to call, and the final results are expected to take time to come in. The delay is due to differing state laws on when votes can be counted and how long the process takes. While some states are set to announce results fairly quickly, others might keep us waiting for days. With polls showing a tight race, it’s clear that the winner could be anyone’s guess until the final ballots are counted.

Exit Polls: Insights Into Voter Sentiments
While the results in key states are still rolling in, early exit polls offer a glimpse into the mindset of voters across the nation. These exit polls are always a bit of a mixed bag, providing insights that can be both encouraging and worrying for each candidate.

For Harris, the final days of the campaign focused heavily on the theme of democracy, and that message seems to have resonated with voters. According to NBC News exit polling, 35% of voters said that democracy was the most important issue influencing their vote. This marks a shift in voter priorities, as national polling had previously shown that the economy was far and away the top concern. Notably, three in four voters expressed that they felt democracy in the U.S. was under threat, which could work to Harris's advantage, especially with those voters focused on safeguarding democratic institutions.

On the other hand, Trump’s campaign strategy has been to tie Harris closely to President Joe Biden, who has faced low approval ratings throughout the election cycle. A CNN exit poll revealed that just 7% of voters were enthusiastic about the country’s direction, while 29% were outright angry. Only 26% of voters expressed satisfaction with the nation’s direction, a stark contrast to the 72% who were dissatisfied. This dissatisfaction could be a strong motivator for Trump’s base, fueling the desire for change and a shift in power.

However, the majority of voters have already made their decision long before Election Day. According to CNN’s exit poll, 80% of voters had their minds made up by September, suggesting that any last-minute developments, including Trump’s controversial rally in Madison Square Garden or Harris’s strong debate performance in early September, may not have had a significant impact on the outcome.

When Will We Know the Results?
One of the most pressing questions on everyone’s mind is: when will we know who won? The answer isn’t simple, as each state has different rules for counting and reporting ballots. Some states are able to process ballots quickly, while others will take much longer. Here’s a look at when we can expect to hear results from the major swing states:

• 7 p.m. ET: Polls close in most of Georgia, though a few polling places will remain open late due to bomb threats. Georgia is expected to be one of the first states to declare a winner, as new laws allowing election officials to begin counting mail-in ballots on Election Day should speed up the process compared to 2020.

• 7:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina’s polls close, and this state is known for its quick vote-counting. A winner could be declared by Tuesday night.

• 8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan has a reputation for counting ballots quickly, so we may hear results as soon as Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Pennsylvania, however, will likely take much longer due to the high number of mail-in ballots that can’t be processed until after the polls close. In 2020, Pennsylvania wasn’t called until Saturday, ultimately giving Joe Biden his win.

• 9 p.m. ET: Wisconsin and Arizona both close their polls. Wisconsin is likely to take until Wednesday to report final results, primarily due to the time it takes to count absentee ballots, especially in the Democratic stronghold of Milwaukee. Arizona, similarly, may take days to count votes due to its high volume of mail-in ballots.

• 10 p.m. ET: Nevada’s polls close, and this state also has a significant amount of mail-in voting. Results here may take several days as well.

Given the tight margins in these states and the potential for delays in counting ballots, it could be several days before we know for sure who won.

Understanding the Electoral College: How the Math Works
In the U.S., winning the presidency is all about securing enough electoral votes, and that’s where the race really heats up. Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes based on its population, and the candidate who reaches at least 270 electoral votes (out of 538 total) wins the presidency.

Most states are pretty predictable in terms of which party they tend to support. However, the seven battleground states — Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin — hold a combined 93 electoral votes that could go either way. So, let’s break down the paths to victory for both Harris and Trump:

• Harris’s Path to Victory: If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan (with results coming in late Tuesday or early Wednesday), she will reach 273 electoral votes, clinching the win. These states are considered her best chances for securing a victory, and she has generally polled better in the traditional “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin than in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

• Trump’s Path to Victory: For Trump, a win in the Sun Belt states combined with a victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin would put him in a strong position. If he can secure Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, he will have 266 electoral votes, which is close, but not quite enough to claim victory. He would still need to win a couple more key battleground states to reach the magic number of 270.

As the results continue to come in over the next few days, the world will be watching to see which candidate can secure the crucial swing states. Whether it’s Harris’s message of preserving democracy or Trump’s focus on a desire for change, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched and unpredictable races in U.S. history. Stay tuned — we’re in for a wild ride!