Elections in the USA generally fall into one of two categories: either they're a referendum on a person, party, or idea, or they're a choice between competing individuals, parties, or ideas. The type of campaign, whether more of a referendum or a choice, often determines how the election plays out.
When out of power, candidates and parties typically frame their campaigns as referendums on the incumbent. Conversely, incumbents aim to make the election a choice between competing visions.
In 2016, both parties focused on characterizing the other nominee negatively. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's campaigns were largely based on attacking each other's characters, leading swing voters to waver between voting for their candidate or against the opponent.
In contrast, some elections are clear anti-incumbent campaigns, like in 2008 when the GOP was on the ballot, or in 2020, which was more a referendum on Trump.
Looking ahead to 2024, the battle between likely major-party nominees seems poised to make the campaign a referendum on the other candidate. Currently, many swing voters view the election as more of a referendum on Biden than on Trump.
To avoid a negative referendum solely on him, Biden's campaign may need to focus more on policy rather than character. While character is often emphasized, voters usually prioritize policy, especially when their own lives are stable.
On the international front, NATO faces challenges beyond Trump's rhetoric. Growing isolationist sentiment in the GOP, particularly in rural America, reflects skepticism about past military involvements. Many Republicans are reevaluating their stances to align with this sentiment, making issues like aid to Ukraine politically sensitive.
Finally, criticizing the media has become common, but it's important to be accurate. Media bias is inherent, and most well-funded newsrooms prioritize fairness and accuracy over balance. However, smaller, more biased media outlets often distort the larger narrative, contributing to a widespread distrust of the media. It's crucial to differentiate between honest reporting and biased misinformation.
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