In a surprising twist in the Conservative Party leadership race, James Cleverly has surged ahead of Robert Jenrick, marking a significant moment for Tory grassroots. This change in momentum comes following a Conservative Home survey conducted right after the party's conference in Birmingham last week. For the first time, Cleverly has overtaken Jenrick, setting the stage for an intriguing showdown among the candidates vying to succeed Rishi Sunak.
The survey, which gathered insights from 784 respondents, revealed that Cleverly garnered 25% of the votes, a notable 12 percentage points increase from the previous week’s poll. In contrast, Jenrick's support dipped to 19%, down by six points. This sudden shift in numbers not only highlights Cleverly's rising popularity but also suggests that the political landscape among Conservative activists is anything but stable.
Kemi Badenoch, the shadow housing secretary, continues to lead the pack with 32% of respondents indicating their support for her candidacy. While she experienced a slight decline of four percentage points, her position remains relatively secure. It's worth noting that despite recent controversies surrounding her remarks on maternity pay and integration, her base appears undeterred, demonstrating the depth of support she commands within the party.
Now, let’s talk about the dynamics of the leadership race. Each of the four candidates had the opportunity to address supporters for about 20 minutes, showcasing their visions for the party's future. Jenrick stood out by presenting his five-point plan, which included stringent new migration curbs, all while speaking without notes—a bold move that reflects confidence. However, the impact of Cleverly's well-received speech cannot be understated. He emphasized a vision of Conservatism "with a smile" and defended the party's achievements over the past 14 years, resonating well with the conference attendees.
Polling head-to-head among the candidates reveals a more competitive landscape. For the first time, Cleverly is projected to defeat Jenrick by a solid margin of 54% to 36%. Badenoch, not to be outdone, leads both men in head-to-head scenarios, beating Jenrick by 53% to 33% and Cleverly by 48% to 42%. These figures indicate that the race is far from predictable, with each candidate holding a unique appeal to different factions within the party.
While Tom Tugendhat, the fourth contender, remains in the race, he only secured 12% in the latest poll—a one-point decline. Many commentators now consider him to be lagging behind the others, suggesting that he may need to step up his game if he hopes to remain relevant in the contest.
Looking ahead, Tory MPs are set to vote on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, a process that will see two more contenders eliminated. This initial stage is crucial, as it will eventually lead to a final showdown among the top candidates, with Conservative members casting their votes before the new leader is announced on November 2. It's a thrilling time for party members as they witness the evolution of their leadership landscape.
What’s particularly interesting is the trajectory of Jenrick's campaign. Once thought to have a clear path to the final two, his recent decline in popularity raises questions about the assumptions made in Westminster. The perception that he and Badenoch would be the final candidates may no longer hold, especially in light of Cleverly’s impressive rise.
Henry Hill, the deputy editor of Conservative Home, weighed in on the shifting dynamics, stating, “According to our latest survey, Robert Jenrick has lost all the ground he’d gained a week ago. Kemi Badenoch has also slipped back. James Cleverly, meanwhile, has stormed ahead, picking up 12 points and comfortably taking second place in members’ first preferences.” This commentary underscores the volatility of political fortunes, where one week’s frontrunner can quickly become a trailing candidate.
Cleverly’s ascent isn’t without controversy. He faced criticism from Tugendhat after calling out Sir Keir Starmer for the Chagos Islands situation. Cleverly condemned the opposition leader for signing away the islands, even though negotiations had begun during his own tenure as foreign secretary. His announcement in November 2022 about engaging in “constructive negotiations” with Mauritius reflects a commitment to resolving long-standing issues, but it also opens the door for intra-party conflict.
In a recent BBC interview, Tugendhat accused the Foreign Office of “pushing for” the ceding of sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, framing it as an example of “legalism replacing leadership.” Such exchanges not only highlight the personal rivalries but also the differing visions each candidate has for the Conservative Party's future direction.
As the contest unfolds, the timing of the leadership race is also drawing scrutiny. All four candidates have voiced concerns about the tight schedule, noting that the victor will have little time to respond to Rachel Reeves’s first Budget on October 30. This concern adds another layer of complexity to an already intense competition, as the new leader will need to hit the ground running, addressing immediate issues while also shaping long-term party strategy.
As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Conservative Party is at a pivotal moment. With Cleverly’s recent surge, the competition has become more heated, and the final outcome is far from certain. The upcoming votes among Tory MPs will be crucial in shaping the future of the party, and members are undoubtedly paying close attention to how each candidate is positioning themselves.
In summary, James Cleverly's rise over Robert Jenrick signifies a changing tide within the Conservative Party. With Kemi Badenoch still holding strong, the competition remains fierce, and all eyes will be on the upcoming votes to see who makes it through to the next stage. The journey to find Rishi Sunak's successor is packed with twists and turns, making it an exhilarating experience for party members and political observers alike. Will Cleverly maintain his momentum, or will Jenrick find a way to reclaim his position? Only time will tell as this political drama continues to unfold.
Login