The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could be the tightest contest in over a century. One person who truly understands how razor-thin the margin could be is David Binder, Harris' trusted pollster. Binder has been quietly yet significantly influencing the course of her political career, providing crucial insights that could ultimately pave her path to victory. While Harris' campaign relies heavily on his work, Binder’s contributions have flown largely under the radar, despite the immense impact his research has on shaping strategies for both Harris and other major Democratic figures.
David Binder’s name might not be familiar to most Americans, but those within political circles know just how instrumental his work has been. Binder has served in every campaign Harris has ever run, standing as one of her most loyal and essential confidants. His knack for uncovering the hidden sentiments of voters has earned him a reputation for being among the best in the business. But it's not just Harris who has benefited from his talents—Binder’s polling work also played a critical role in both of former President Barack Obama's successful presidential bids.
"David's unique talent was his deep, qualitative research, which was the best I’d ever seen anyone do," said David Axelrod, Obama's former senior strategist, in an interview with ABC News. Axelrod vividly recalls how Binder’s early work during Obama's Iowa focus groups gave them the insights needed to propel Obama’s candidacy forward. Axelrod credits Binder with being intricately woven into the fabric of Obama’s political journey.
The critical role Binder played in Obama’s campaigns is a testament to his ability to shape political narratives and give campaigns the tools they need to succeed. Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012 was particularly challenging, as the country was still recovering from the Great Recession. Binder’s research helped the campaign develop a strategy to address economic concerns head-on, providing the foundation for the messaging that would eventually win over voters. At one point, Binder suggested using a simple chart illustrating job losses and gains during the recession. It was a stroke of genius. "No words, just a chart. We ended up using that chart in television ads with very little narrative, and it was unbelievably powerful," Axelrod revealed.
What makes Binder so effective is his ability to tap into the core beliefs and concerns of voters. His approach is not merely about numbers and percentages; it’s about understanding the emotional and psychological drivers behind voting behaviors. This deep dive into voter sentiment allows campaigns to tailor their messaging in a way that resonates on a personal level. His ability to extract insights from focus groups is legendary. He’s not just listening to what voters say—they're listening for what’s behind their words, for recurring themes and subtle cues that can be leveraged to shift the campaign’s direction.
Polling is not just about gathering data—it’s about interpreting it and then making tough decisions based on it. Brian Brokaw, who managed Harris’ 2010 campaign for California Attorney General, explained that a good pollster needs a strong "bedside manner." Pollsters are often bearers of difficult truths, and campaigns rely on their ability to deliver both good and bad news with clarity and guidance. Brokaw said, "You almost never encounter a pollster who says, 'actually, we’re good, you don’t need to change anything.'" Instead, they often serve as the catalysts for adjusting a campaign’s course.
What sets Binder apart in his relationship with Harris is the deep bond they’ve cultivated over the years. Ace Smith, a long-time strategist for Harris, described their connection as "sweet and personal," one that stretches back to their early days in Democratic politics in San Francisco. It’s this long-standing relationship that has made Binder such a fixture in Harris’ political world. "He has had a long relationship with Kamala Harris that predates this presidential campaign... These things matter," Axelrod added.
It’s hard to overstate how crucial Binder’s role has been in Harris’ career. From her early days as a San Francisco District Attorney candidate to her historic win in the 2010 race for California Attorney General, Binder’s data and polling insights have consistently been spot on. When Harris first ran for District Attorney, her polling numbers were abysmally low. The first survey Binder conducted showed her at just 9%, but with his guidance, Harris defied expectations and won the seat.
One of the most notable moments came during the 2010 Attorney General race. It was a nail-biter, with Binder predicting a "jump ball" scenario—meaning the race was too close to call. It took nearly a month for the final results to come in, but in the end, Harris squeaked out a victory by the slimmest of margins. As Smith put it, "In the history of California politics, it was one of the closest races in the state." Binder’s accurate predictions and steady hand in such a high-pressure situation solidified his reputation as one of the most reliable pollsters in the business.
Fast forward to today, and Binder’s work could once again play a decisive role in determining the outcome of a historic election. Harris’ race against Trump is shaping up to be fiercely competitive, and the polls are already reflecting just how tight the race could be. A former staffer shared an email from Binder, which summed up the situation succinctly: "Battleground polls are so tight."
The process Binder follows is thorough and methodical. During Obama’s campaigns, for instance, Binder led focus groups three nights a week, gathering data from small groups of people—typically 8 to 12 participants—asking them probing questions to reveal their deepest concerns. The repetition of these groups, across different cities and regions, allowed Binder to identify recurring themes and trends, which he would then present to the campaign team. This qualitative research is what often drives the messaging decisions in a campaign, helping shape the way candidates address issues that matter most to voters.
With the 2024 election looming, Harris' fate may rest on Binder’s shoulders once again. Pollsters like Binder don’t just gather information—they craft the blueprint for a campaign’s success. And as we’ve seen in past elections, when the margins are razor-thin, every bit of insight matters. It’s not just about a candidate’s charisma or policy positions; it’s about having the right data to make informed, strategic decisions. As Jim Stearns, Harris’ first campaign consultant, aptly put it, "When you win close elections, it’s not just about the character of the candidate, but it means your numbers were right."
In the weeks leading up to November, Binder’s work will likely take on even more significance. With battleground states in play and the race too close to call, his insights will help Harris navigate the final, critical stretch of her campaign. Should Harris emerge victorious, there’s no doubt that Binder’s behind-the-scenes expertise will have played a pivotal role in her journey to the White House.
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