Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan has likely never been more influential on the global stage than he is right now. Hosting the first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years, Erdogan has positioned himself as a key player in the geopolitical chess game. The timing of this major diplomatic move comes just days after a significant development in Turkey’s internal politics: the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the country’s long-standing militant nemesis.
Erdogan’s rising profile as an international statesman is undeniable, with his efforts aimed at stabilizing both Eastern Europe and the Middle East earning him praise even from former US President Donald Trump. This increased diplomatic influence has helped Turkey bolster its role as a regional power. However, the timing of Erdogan’s international success has raised some eyebrows domestically, with many fearing that his global achievements might be leveraged to serve his political ambitions at home.
In recent months, the arrest and imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s chief political rival, sparked the largest protests Turkey has seen in a decade. These protests erupted over what critics described as a politically motivated and undemocratic legal crackdown. Imamoglu has consistently denied the charges against him, while the Ankara government has rejected accusations of autocratic behavior. Despite the international focus on Erdogan’s diplomacy, his domestic challenges are far from over, and his government’s actions at home cannot be ignored.
Erdogan, who has been in power for over two decades, has often shifted his focus abroad when facing internal political or economic challenges. This pattern of focusing on international matters to divert attention from domestic issues is not new. For example, in May 2022, as Turkey’s inflation rate soared to nearly 85%, Erdogan blocked NATO’s expansion plans, waiting until early the following year to approve Sweden’s membership bid, extracting concessions in return.
According to Birol Baskan, a political scientist based in Turkey, “Erdogan has never been this pivotal in geopolitics.” Indeed, the past few years have seen significant changes in global affairs, with some of the most notable shifts tied to Erdogan’s strategic moves. From supporting Syrian rebels to negotiating key international deals, Erdogan has significantly expanded Turkey's geopolitical influence.
One of Erdogan’s most significant foreign policy wins came in Syria, where his backing of anti-Assad rebels has paid off. The downfall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December solidified Turkey’s influence in the region. As the Syrian civil war continues to recede, Erdogan finds himself holding considerable sway in Damascus, positioning Turkey as a key regional player.
The relationship between Erdogan and former US President Donald Trump has also played a pivotal role in strengthening Turkey’s global standing. Trump, who has long spoken of his "great relationship" with Erdogan, has backed Turkey’s peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. During a recent conversation, Trump even praised Erdogan for his role in hosting peace talks in Istanbul, offering his full support.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who is set to visit Turkey in the coming days, has challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin to join him for a ceasefire meeting in Istanbul. However, Putin’s response to this invitation remains uncertain. Erdogan, for his part, has used his diplomatic connections to urge both sides to seize the opportunity for peace. With calls from various global leaders, including those from Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, France, and NATO, Erdogan finds himself at the center of high-stakes negotiations.
At the same time, another major development in Turkish politics has unfolded to the south, where the PKK has finally agreed to disband after decades of insurgency. The PKK, which has fought against the Turkish state for over 40 years, has caused significant loss of life, with over 40,000 people killed. However, weakened by years of Turkish military operations, the PKK announced its decision to disband and lay down its arms, marking a major victory for Erdogan.
While this development may seem like a positive shift, opposition figures have warned that Erdogan could use this opportunity to secure his political future. Musavvat Dervisoglu, chair of Turkey's opposition IYI Party, cautioned that Erdogan might leverage the disbanding of the PKK to rally Kurdish support, which could prove crucial in extending his rule beyond 2028. Erdogan has yet to clarify whether he intends to run for re-election, but his actions suggest he is positioning himself for long-term political success.
Since Imamoglu's arrest in March, the Istanbul mayor's lead in public opinion polls has continued to grow. However, his access to social media platforms has been restricted, and he is awaiting a court hearing on corruption charges. Meanwhile, the protests against Erdogan’s use of the judiciary for political purposes, which initially sparked mass demonstrations, have largely subsided, even as the political landscape remains tense.
Despite these domestic challenges, Erdogan continues to emphasize his diplomatic achievements, with Harun Armagan, vice-chair of foreign affairs for Erdogan's AK Party, claiming that Imamoglu’s case is a “judicial” issue rather than a political one. Armagan stressed that the “historic milestones” in Turkish politics, such as the disbanding of the PKK, should be seen in a broader context of political stability.
Europe’s response to Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts has been largely positive, with French President Emmanuel Macron even emphasizing the importance of a ceasefire in Ukraine. In fact, European leaders are increasingly turning to Turkey for support as the continent grapples with security challenges and seeks new strategies for peace. Turkey’s military strength, particularly its role as a NATO member and its production of armed drones, has earned Erdogan’s government a significant role in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Despite Turkey’s close ties to Russia, Erdogan has carefully navigated a diplomatic path, balancing relations with both Moscow and the West. This delicate balancing act has only increased his diplomatic clout, with some analysts suggesting that even if peace talks in Istanbul do not lead to an immediate breakthrough, Erdogan will still receive considerable praise for his role in facilitating dialogue.
One of the most recent diplomatic victories for Erdogan came in the form of US President Trump’s announcement that the US would lift sanctions on Syria. This decision, which followed talks between Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, marked a significant shift in US policy. Trump’s surprise announcement came after Erdogan and the Saudi leader had urged him to take action, and it reflects Erdogan’s growing influence in global affairs.
In addition, Trump’s appointment of Thomas Barrack, a longtime advisor, as US ambassador to Turkey further highlights the deepening ties between the two countries. Barrack has stated that he intends to elevate the US-Turkey relationship to an “extraordinary” level, a sentiment that underscores Erdogan’s importance in global diplomacy.
As Erdogan continues to navigate the complex intersection of domestic and international politics, his role as a key player in global affairs is becoming increasingly evident. Whether in peace talks or regional security efforts, Erdogan’s actions will continue to shape Turkey’s future, both at home and abroad.
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