In the highly anticipated race for district attorney, Democrat Sean Teare is outpacing his Republican rival, Dan Simons, by a striking 14 percentage points. The poll, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, shows Teare capturing 52% of likely voters, compared to Simons’ 38%. But it’s not just a clean sweep yet — about 10% of likely voters remain undecided, which means there's still room for some last-minute surprises. The survey itself was pretty thorough, conducted online in both English and Spanish between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10, reaching out to 491 registered Harris County voters. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.42%, this poll is giving us a clear glimpse into how things might shake out.
Let's not forget about the sheriff's race either, where incumbent Ed Gonzalez, the Democratic favorite, has a commanding 16-point lead over Republican challenger Mike Knox. Gonzalez is sitting comfortably with 53% of the vote, while Knox trails behind with 37%. But, just like in the district attorney race, 10% of voters are still sitting on the fence. That undecided chunk could still sway the outcome in unexpected ways.
The position of tax assessor-collector is another hot race this year, mainly because it's an open seat. With the longtime Democratic incumbent, Ann Harris Bennett, opting not to run for re-election, this race has some fresh faces. On the Democratic side, Annette Ramirez, a tax attorney for Aldine ISD, is making her first run at the position. She’s currently leading with 50% of likely voters backing her. On the Republican side, Steve Radack, a seasoned political veteran who spent over 30 years as Precinct 3 Commissioner before retiring in 2020, is holding at 38%. However, 12% of voters haven’t made up their minds yet, so it's still a race worth watching.
The poll also offers some insight into the Harris County attorney race, where incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee is holding a respectable lead over Republican challenger Jacqueline Lucci Smith. Menefee is pulling in 48% of likely voters, compared to Smith's 37%, leaving a sizeable 15% of voters undecided. Those undecided voters could tip the balance in either direction as Election Day approaches.
One fascinating element emerging from this poll is the gender divide among voters. While the Democratic candidates — Teare, Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Menefee — are virtually neck and neck with their Republican opponents among male voters, it's the women voters who are really making a difference. The poll shows a significant lead for Democrats among women, with margins ranging between 20 and 27 percentage points. It's clear that female voters are playing a pivotal role in this election, and their preferences could very well decide the outcome of these critical races.
Ethnic demographics also tell an interesting story. Both Democrats and Republicans are drawing nearly equal support from white and Latino voters, making these groups key battlegrounds for both parties. However, Black voters in Harris County are overwhelmingly favoring the Democratic candidates, with margins ranging from 39 to 51 percentage points in favor of the Democrats. These numbers suggest that the Black vote could be a critical factor in determining the winners in this year’s election.
Beyond the candidate races, there's also an important issue on the ballot: Harris County Flood Control District’s proposed tax increase. The poll reveals that just over half of likely voters (51%) support the tax hike, which would provide much-needed funding for flood mitigation projects in the region. However, 30% are against the measure, and a not-insignificant 19% remain undecided. With the devastation of recent floods fresh in the minds of many voters, this issue could be a major factor driving people to the polls this year.
It’s not just the local races that are making waves, though. On the national stage, Harris County voters seem to be leaning Democratic as well. In the presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris has a significant lead over Republican Donald Trump, with 54% of likely voters backing her, compared to Trump's 41%. Only 3% of voters are still undecided in this race, while 2% are throwing their support behind third-party candidates.
Meanwhile, the Senate race between Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred is shaping up to be another closely watched contest. According to the poll, Allred is currently leading with 52% of likely voters supporting him, while Cruz is trailing at 39%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has garnered support from 2% of voters, and 7% remain undecided. These numbers suggest that Cruz may face a tougher challenge than expected, as voters seem to be leaning toward a change in leadership.
What's exciting here is that Harris County is truly shaping up as a battleground, with both local and national implications. Voter turnout is expected to be high, especially with early voting set to begin soon. The mix of undecided voters, gender and racial divides, and key issues like the flood control tax increase make this a dynamic and unpredictable election season. While Democrats currently hold the lead in many of these races, anything can happen between now and Election Day, especially with such a significant portion of voters yet to make up their minds.
So, buckle up! This election season in Harris County is poised to be an exciting ride with plenty of twists and turns. Whether you're focused on the local district attorney race or the national showdown between Cruz and Allred, there’s a lot at stake, and every vote will count. Keep an eye on those undecided voters, as they could be the ones to ultimately shape the future of Harris County and beyond.
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