In a surprising move following a big hit for his Renaissance party in the recent European Parliament election, President Emmanuel Macron has called for snap elections for France's lower house of parliament. The first round is set for June 30, just a few weeks away, with the run-off on July 7. This sudden decision has stirred the political landscape, opening up possibilities for various outcomes.
According to the latest opinion poll by Toluna Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6, and RTL, Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is projected to make significant gains, possibly securing 235 to 265 seats in the National Assembly, a considerable leap from its current 88. However, this falls short of the 289 seats needed for an outright majority. Macron's centrist alliance, on the other hand, might see its representation halved, dropping from 250 to 125-155 seats.
Despite the forecast, the situation remains uncertain. The far-right's rise to power is not guaranteed, and other scenarios are plausible, including a coalition government involving mainstream parties or a hung parliament. Macron's gamble on snap elections has injected an element of unpredictability into French politics, causing fluctuations in the financial market and raising questions about the future direction of the country.
The impending elections have sparked a flurry of activity among political parties, with discussions about potential alliances and candidate selection in full swing. Leaders from across the political spectrum are engaged in talks, exploring opportunities for collaboration in a bid to secure their respective interests.
For Le Pen and her allies, the challenge lies in translating their growing popularity into electoral success. The election is expected to center on dissatisfaction with Macron's policies, particularly regarding the cost of living and immigration. However, it also presents a test of whether the National Rally can be entrusted with governing France.
The outcome of the election holds significant implications, not just for domestic policy but also for France's position on the international stage. With Macron potentially losing control over key areas such as economic policy and security, the country's ability to influence global affairs could be affected.
As France prepares to host the Paris Olympics starting on July 26, the political landscape is set for a period of intense scrutiny and speculation. All eyes will be on the outcome of the snap elections, as they have the potential to reshape the country's trajectory for years to come.
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