In the latest twist in the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out former President Donald Trump by a slim margin, following President Joe Biden's decision to step down from his re-election bid. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday, Harris holds a narrow two-percentage-point lead over Trump. This poll comes right after the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally accepted his party's nomination, and Biden's surprising announcement on Sunday that he was bowing out of the race and endorsing Harris.
The numbers show Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%, though it's crucial to note that this difference falls within the poll's 3-percentage-point margin of error. This tight race mirrors recent trends: a July 15-16 poll had Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll showed Trump ahead by just one percentage point—again, within the same margin of error.
What's worth noting is that while nationwide polls provide a snapshot of general support, the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately decides the presidency, is swayed by a few key battleground states. These are the states where the real action happens, tipping the scales in favor of one candidate or another.
An interesting aspect of the latest poll is the contrast in public perception between Harris and Trump. About 56% of registered voters believe Harris, who is 59 years old, is "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges." In comparison, only 49% of voters have the same confidence in Trump, who is 78. Meanwhile, only 22% of voters felt Biden, who is 81, had the sharpness needed for the presidency.
Biden’s exit from the race followed a debate performance where he struggled to keep pace with Trump’s attacks, which included several inaccuracies. Biden's stammering responses and inability to robustly challenge Trump’s claims likely contributed to his decision to step down and support Harris.
This development has added a new layer of excitement to the election season. As the race heats up, all eyes will be on how Harris and Trump fare in the crucial battleground states, which will ultimately determine the next President of the United States.
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