In the political arena of Florida, the primary battle this Tuesday is set to be a high-stakes showdown. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), a figure known for his controversial positions and dramatic clashes within the Republican Party, is facing off against a fresh challenger. This primary is not just another electoral event; it’s part of a larger strategy orchestrated by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to retaliate against the Republicans who were instrumental in his ousting last year.
Gaetz, who played a pivotal role in the October vote that removed McCarthy from his position, has been a lightning rod for GOP infighting. His alliance with Democrats in that unprecedented move deepened the rift within the party. Despite the tumult, Gaetz has stayed in the spotlight, continuing to challenge his GOP colleagues and defy the new speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.). As the sole remaining member of the anti-McCarthy faction seeking re-election, Gaetz is under intense scrutiny. So far, among his former allies, only Rep. Bob Good (Va.) has lost a primary—largely due to a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, other anti-McCarthy figures like Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.) opted out of running for another term.
Gaetz’s lone opponent in this race is Aaron Dimmock, a retired Navy officer who has been on the receiving end of Gaetz’s sharp attacks. Gaetz has taken a critical stance against Dimmock’s background in diversity training, using it as a key point in his campaign. Additionally, Gaetz has been playing up his relationship with Trump, who has endorsed him, as shown in campaign ads where Gaetz proudly declares, “This is Donald Trump’s party, and I’m a Donald Trump Republican.”
On the other side, Dimmock and his supporters have been actively highlighting serious allegations against Gaetz, including claims about inappropriate conduct with a 17-year-old girl. Although the Justice Department decided not to pursue charges, and Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing, the House Ethics Committee continues to investigate. Anti-Gaetz super PACs, such as the Florida Patriots PAC, have seized on these allegations, running ads that assert, “Your daughters are never safe with the real Matt Gaetz.”
In terms of financial backing, Gaetz has significantly outpaced Dimmock, raising an impressive $5.7 million by July, as reported by the Federal Election Commission. Dimmock’s fundraising has lagged far behind, but he has received substantial support from the Florida Patriots PAC, which has invested over $3 million in the race. This PAC is funded by America Fund, a major player in efforts to unseat Republicans who voted against McCarthy. Notably, Brian O. Walsh, a former top aide to McCarthy, now serves as a senior adviser to the American Prosperity Alliance, another group involved in these challenges.
Kevin McCarthy has been openly backing Dimmock since his entry into the primary this spring. Their feud came to a head during a recent Republican National Convention, where Gaetz interrupted McCarthy during a TV interview, showcasing the ongoing tension between the two.
Turning our gaze to Florida’s Senate race, the primary elections are also expected to finalize the November matchup between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democratic challenger. This race is drawing significant attention as one of the Democrats' most promising opportunities to gain ground in the Senate, alongside a contested seat in Texas where Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is facing Rep. Colin Allred (D).
Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, expressed optimism about Democrats' chances in Florida and Texas. With Vice President Kamala Harris now at the top of the Democratic ticket, some believe she has expanded the party’s appeal to more states. Both Scott and Mucarsel-Powell are leading in their respective primaries, with Scott facing two challengers and Mucarsel-Powell up against three.
For Democrats, capturing Florida's Senate seat is crucial to counter the state’s rightward shift in recent elections. Trump carried Florida in both 2016 and 2020, and Governor Ron DeSantis (R) secured a landslide victory in 2022. The Senate race is also significant for Scott, who is eyeing the position of Senate GOP leader in 2025, competing against two other Republicans for the role.
Shifting to Alaska, voters are deciding which candidates will advance to the November general election for one of the state's most competitive House seats. Currently held by Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the at-large seat is up for grabs in a unique primary system where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot. The top four vote-getters will proceed to a ranked-choice general election.
Peltola is facing off against 11 other candidates, including four Republicans. The most prominent GOP contenders are Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is endorsed by Trump and the House GOP campaign arm, and Nick Begich, a businessman and former candidate against Peltola with a background in Democratic politics. Peltola, one of the more vulnerable House Democrats, is running in a district that Trump won in 2020. She has maintained a degree of distance from her party’s national ticket, notably not endorsing Harris following Biden’s exit from the presidential race last month.
A Democratic-aligned super PAC, Vote Alaska Before Party, has been active in the primary, spending over $900,000 on ads that seem aimed at ensuring Peltola faces a consolidated Republican field in November. In contrast, the newly-formed 1959 PAC, with undisclosed donors, has recently invested at least $751,000 in supporting Dahlstrom’s campaign.
This Tuesday's primaries in Florida and Alaska are set to be pivotal, shaping the political landscape and setting the stage for November's crucial elections.
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