In the 2024 election, one of the key factors that helped Donald Trump’s campaign gain traction was the rising cost of living and economic concerns that hit close to home for many Americans. Despite the Biden administration’s claims of a strong economic recovery, many voters felt that their paychecks didn’t stretch as far as they used to. Let’s take a deeper look into what swung these voters toward Trump and the underlying economic dynamics that played a big part in this election.
To set the stage, it’s essential to understand that job growth was indeed a major talking point for the Biden administration. Under President Biden, the U.S. saw significant job creation, with around 16 million jobs added since he took office. Unemployment dropped sharply and has remained at historically low levels. These statistics allowed Biden’s team to proudly tout economic recovery on the campaign trail. But even as jobs were added, the real story for many voters was their dwindling purchasing power due to inflation.
Inflation: The Unseen Burden on Americans
From the early days of Biden’s presidency, inflation reared its head, making goods and services more expensive across the board. Gas prices, groceries, rent, and even energy bills went up, causing real wages to stagnate or, in many places, decline. The Federal Reserve attempted to control inflation by adjusting interest rates, gradually bringing inflation down toward their 2% target, but the damage was already done in the eyes of many voters.
Trump seized on this economic pain point, promising voters relief in areas that impacted their daily lives. He pledged to lower taxes, decrease energy costs, and reduce regulations, presenting a stark contrast to Biden’s approach. Trump’s economic promises resonated especially well in states where people felt the sting of inflation the most.
Real Wages and the Trump Swing
A fascinating analysis from Business Insider reveals how real wages—essentially, wages adjusted for inflation—painted a clear picture of why so many people shifted their votes toward Trump. This study found that in states where real wages had declined the most, there was a larger swing in favor of Trump. For instance, states like New York and Maryland, traditionally Democratic strongholds, saw real wage declines of 8.3% and 11.2%, respectively. In New York, Trump’s share of the vote increased by 6.5 percentage points compared to the 2020 election, while in Maryland, he gained 5 percentage points.
These are significant shifts, and they didn’t happen in a vacuum. Many of these areas are high-cost states, where the impact of inflation is felt acutely due to already elevated prices. While residents in these states might typically lean blue, the economic squeeze pushed them to consider Trump’s promises of relief.
Cost of Living: A Key Factor in Swing Votes
The analysis also uncovered that counties with a higher cost of living were more likely to lean toward Trump this election cycle. Trump didn’t win over these areas outright, but he closed the gap significantly, reflecting the frustration people felt with rising costs. For example, in major cities along the coasts, where the cost of living is among the highest in the country, voters moved toward Trump in notable numbers, even if he didn’t carry these counties.
Jed Kolko, an economist who served in the Biden administration, noted that counties with higher costs of living were more likely to swing in Trump’s direction in 2024 compared to 2020. Expensive, urban counties that are typically solidly blue, like those in big coastal cities, saw Harris winning by narrower margins than Biden did in 2020. Kolko’s research highlights that these economic pressures crossed party lines, making cost of living a bipartisan concern in the 2024 election.
Trump’s Bold Promises for Economic Relief
Throughout his campaign, Trump’s economic messaging was straightforward and relentless. He painted a picture of low taxes, reduced energy costs, and rapid economic growth. In a September speech, he said, “My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices, and reignite explosive economic growth.” This message of economic revitalization tapped into a deep vein of frustration and financial strain that many Americans have been feeling.
He also promised lower interest rates, secure borders, and what he described as a “low, low, low crime” America. His emphasis on surging incomes for all Americans regardless of race, religion, color, or creed helped him gain a broader appeal, reaching voters who might not typically support him.
While some experts argue that Trump’s economic policies, particularly his tariffs, could lead to increased consumer prices, Trump assured voters that his approach would lower costs. In an August speech, he boldly proclaimed, “Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
Examining Local Impacts and Federal Spending
Interestingly, local job growth didn’t seem to have a major impact on voting patterns. Kolko’s analysis also pointed out that areas that saw an influx of federal spending through Biden’s infrastructure and industrial investments didn’t necessarily reward Biden at the polls. While these projects brought money and jobs to various counties, the effects of federal spending appeared to be overshadowed by more immediate concerns, like cost of living and inflation.
The Role of Real Wage Decline in Swing States
Real wages—wages adjusted to account for inflation—are a powerful measure of people’s true earning power, and their decline in key states could explain why many voters felt financially stretched. Although nominal wages (the number you see on a paycheck) may have gone up, inflation outpaced these increases in many states, making it harder for people to afford the same things they did just a few years ago. This gap between wage growth and inflation became a tipping point for many voters.
In fact, Rhode Island was one of the few states where real wages grew. In most other states, the gains workers saw were quickly eaten up by inflation. This disparity was especially pronounced in states where Trump made some of his biggest gains. Business Insider’s analysis showed that states with the sharpest declines in real wages were also among those where Trump performed best.
Key Takeaways
Let’s break down some of the main takeaways that highlight why economic concerns shifted votes toward Trump in the 2024 election:
- High Inflation: Biden’s term was marked by rising prices, especially during the early years, which led to a perception of financial strain among voters.
- Decline in Real Wages: Despite low unemployment and job growth, real wages declined in many states, especially high-cost states, leading people to feel like their paychecks had lost value.
- Cost of Living Pressures: Counties with a higher cost of living leaned more toward Trump than they did in 2020, reflecting a desire for economic change.
- Trump’s Promises: Trump’s message of reducing costs and lowering inflation resonated deeply, especially with those feeling the economic squeeze.
While Biden’s economic team highlighted job growth and other metrics, Trump’s campaign tapped into a pervasive sentiment that these improvements didn’t benefit everyone equally. This economic narrative—highlighted by rising prices and real wage struggles—undoubtedly played a crucial role in Trump’s success with certain voter demographics. With economic uncertainty still looming, the coming years will show whether Trump’s promises of lower prices and broader financial relief will resonate long-term or if other factors will eventually take center stage in the political landscape.
This election proved that the economy remains a central issue for American voters, especially when financial pressures weigh on everyday lives.
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