As California turns its attention toward the 2026 gubernatorial race, one question stands out: Will Vice President Kamala Harris, a native Californian and one of the state's most prominent political figures, decide to enter the race? While Harris has yet to publicly indicate her intentions, and insiders suggest she isn’t immediately focused on running for governor, the mere possibility of her entering the contest would dramatically shake up the race for California's top office.
A Game-Changer for California Politics?
Polling data offers a glimpse into just how seismic a Harris candidacy could be. According to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, co-sponsored by The Times, 46% of likely voters said they were somewhat or very likely to support Harris if she were to run for governor in 2026. That’s a commanding number, and political insiders agree that a Harris entry would have a significant impact on the crowded field of Democratic candidates already eyeing the governor’s mansion.
California Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Irvine), a prominent Democrat who has long been rumored to be considering a gubernatorial run, recently expressed her belief that if Harris decides to enter the race, it would "clear the field" for her, effectively eliminating most other serious contenders on the Democratic side. Porter’s assessment was echoed by several other political operatives in California, all of whom agreed that Harris’ presence in the race would cause a ripple effect down the ballot, leading to a scramble among other ambitious politicians vying for different opportunities.
“Politics is a game where the big dogs get to eat first,” quipped Democratic consultant Peter Ragone, capturing the essence of how a high-profile figure like Harris could clear out much of the competition.
The Current Field of Gubernatorial Hopefuls
Right now, the field for California's governorship is a mix of well-known and up-and-coming political figures, but none have achieved the sort of widespread name recognition or dominant polling numbers that would position them as clear frontrunners. While California's 22 million voters are still largely disengaged from the race, the names currently being floated include a number of ambitious and seasoned politicians.
Some of the most notable Democratic candidates include:
- Antonio Villaraigosa, former Los Angeles mayor and the first Latino mayor in over a century.
- Toni Atkins, the first woman and openly LGBTQ leader of the California State Senate.
- Eleni Kounalakis, the sitting lieutenant governor and the first woman to hold that post.
- Tony Thurmond, the current state superintendent of public instruction.
- Betty Yee, former state controller.
California’s current governor, Gavin Newsom, is ineligible to run again after serving two terms, leaving the position open and creating an opportunity for a new leader. Several other Democrats, including Porter, Health and Human Services Director Xavier Becerra, and Attorney General Rob Bonta, have also publicly hinted at the possibility of running for governor.
But if Harris enters the race, it could change everything. In fact, some speculate that it would cause many of these candidates to rethink their plans, shifting the political landscape in ways that are difficult to predict.
Would Other Candidates Stand a Chance?
Despite the seemingly overwhelming advantage Harris might have, there are still many variables at play. One big question is what billionaire real estate mogul Rick Caruso might decide to do. Caruso, who has been mulling a gubernatorial run, might present a contrast to Harris as a more centrist candidate. His status as a former Republican until 2019 further complicates the potential dynamic, offering voters a different choice should Harris decide to run.
However, it's unclear when or if Harris will make her decision public. Some political insiders believe she is likely to remain quiet for now, taking her time before making a final call. Harris’ office has not yet responded to requests for comment, and she is known for being deliberate and strategic when it comes to political moves.
The Psychological Toll of Political Battles
What’s also fascinating is the psychological element of this decision. For Harris, a former senator and attorney general, the idea of running for governor may not hold the same allure as it might for other politicians. Political insiders suggest that Harris, like many others who have faced a major defeat (such as Hillary Clinton after her 2016 loss), may be spending time evaluating what’s next for her career. Some speculate she is focused on a potential presidential run in 2028 rather than a 2026 race for governor.
One political insider who has worked with Harris suggested that she likely doesn't feel a deep need to run for governor, as she has already established herself as a major political figure with influence both nationally and internationally. "She could do a lot of big, wonderful things without the burden of negotiating California's budget or dealing with the intricacies of state politics," said the source.
If Harris does choose to run, it would almost certainly impede any aspirations she might have for the presidency in 2028, as a successful gubernatorial run would make it difficult to pivot to a White House bid shortly thereafter. However, history shows that an unsuccessful run for California governor doesn't necessarily preclude a future presidential bid—just look at Richard Nixon. After losing the 1962 California governor’s race, Nixon made a remarkable comeback, becoming the 37th president of the United States in 1969.
The Timing of Harris’ Decision
Harris has until March 2026 to make her decision, but political strategists believe that she would likely need to make a move by late spring to avoid creating chaos among other candidates. A late entry in June, they suggest, could create unnecessary confusion and frustration, giving other candidates less time to adjust their own campaigns or pursue different political opportunities.
If Harris does decide to run, one thing is for certain: her candidacy will be closely watched, and it will undoubtedly influence the decisions of others in the field. Harris has longstanding relationships with several of the other potential candidates, including Kounalakis, and many believe her entry could lead to some surprising shifts in political allegiances.
A Scramble for Opportunities
In California, candidates have the flexibility to fundraise for multiple statewide races, meaning that money raised for a gubernatorial run could be redirected to another office, like lieutenant governor. Several candidates, including former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs, former state Senator Steven Bradford, and former state Treasurer Fiona Ma, are already in the race for lieutenant governor. However, if Harris were to run for governor, it’s expected that the lieutenant governor’s office would see even more interest, as it has historically served as a stepping stone to the governorship.
But even if Harris enters the race, there are no guarantees. Political strategist Mike Murphy, a Republican, cautioned that Harris would not necessarily have a smooth path to victory. "It’s like Hollywood. Nobody knows anything," Murphy said. "She’s famous enough to look credible in early polling, but that doesn't predict the future. There are definitely downsides to a potential Harris candidacy."
What’s Next?
As we move into 2025 and beyond, the question of whether Kamala Harris will run for California governor will likely remain unanswered for some time. However, as political insiders continue to speculate, one thing is clear: her entry into the race could reshape California politics in dramatic ways. Whether she runs or not, it’s clear that the 2026 race will be one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested in California’s history.
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