Michigan's presidential primary presents contrasting scenarios for Democrats and Republicans. On Tuesday, Democrats have a clear path to 117 delegates, as President Biden successfully advocated for Michigan's advancement in the 2024 calendar. Conversely, Republicans face a more complex situation.
For Republicans, the primary outcomes will decide the allocation of 16 out of Michigan's 55 Republican National Convention delegates, with the remaining 39 to be determined at a state party convention on Saturday. This allocation will be based on the preferences of delegates from each congressional district.
However, the Michigan GOP is currently embroiled in a contentious leadership dispute. Two individuals, Kristina Karamo and former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, both claim to be the state party chair. Consequently, two rival conventions have been scheduled, with the Republican National Committee backing Hoekstra as the legitimate chair.
Despite the RNC's recognition of Hoekstra, Karamo refuses to concede and plans to proceed with her convention in Detroit, arguing that Hoekstra lacks the legal authority to convene a convention. This has created uncertainty over which convention will be deemed valid.
The origins of this discord can be traced back four years when Biden's slow start in the Democratic primaries prompted a reshuffling of the calendar for 2024, elevating Michigan to third place. While Democrats swiftly adapted to this change, the GOP was less enthusiastic about an earlier primary. To comply with national party rules, Michigan Republicans devised a hybrid model, dividing delegate allocation between the primary and a state party-run convention.
Adding to the complexity, Michigan experienced a Democratic sweep in the 2022 midterm elections, leaving Republicans in a challenging position. Karamo, despite losing an election that year, ascended to the position of state party chair, promising a grassroots-focused party. However, her tenure has been tumultuous, leading to her ousting in January and Hoekstra's endorsement by Trump and recognition by the RNC.
Unless there is legal intervention or a change of heart by Karamo, rival conventions are set to occur. Delegates from each congressional district will need to choose between attending Karamo's or Hoekstra's convention to determine the delegate allocations for each district. The outcome of these conventions is uncertain, with the possibility of further legal battles or challenges ahead.
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