New Jersey Governor’s Race: Sherrill Leads Ciattarelli as Election Approaches

New Jersey Governor’s Race: Mikie Sherrill Holds a Slim Lead Over Jack Ciattarelli as Election Day Nears

With the November election just around the corner, New Jersey voters are gearing up for what many political experts are calling a crucial bellwether for the 2026 midterms. According to a fresh StimSight Research Poll commissioned by InsiderNJ, Democrat Mikie Sherrill currently holds a six-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with 48% backing Sherrill versus 42% for Ciattarelli. But beneath these headline numbers, the race remains surprisingly fluid — and full of nuances that could tip the balance in either candidate's favor.

The Numbers Behind the Race

While the poll shows Sherrill ahead, a closer look reveals that only about a third of voters on either side are fully committed. Specifically, just 32% said they were definite about voting for Sherrill, and 31% said the same for Ciattarelli. That means roughly a third of voters are still up for grabs, which leaves plenty of room for either campaign to gain ground before Election Day.

The survey, conducted from July 18 to 24 among probable voters, also highlighted that just 1% planned to vote for a third-party candidate, and 9% remained undecided. With these small but potentially pivotal groups, both campaigns have significant opportunities — and challenges — in turning out their supporters and winning over fence-sitters.

What Voters Care About: Affordability, Taxes, and More

Digging into what’s driving voter decisions, affordability and taxes stand out as the top issues in this race. A majority — 53% — of respondents said affordability is the most important issue, followed closely by 43% who pointed to taxes as their primary concern.

Among those focused on affordability, the race for which candidate can best handle the problem is nearly neck-and-neck: 36% believe Sherrill is the right choice, while 34% back Ciattarelli. However, when it comes to taxes, Ciattarelli clearly has the edge, with half of voters saying he’s best suited to lower them. Sherrill, by contrast, was chosen by only 15% on this issue.

Economic opportunity also features prominently in voters' minds. The poll found that 54% think Sherrill is better positioned to provide economic opportunities for New Jersey families, while 49% feel the same about Ciattarelli. This split suggests voters are weighing various factors and qualifications rather than falling purely along party lines.

Social Security, Medicare, and the “Big, Beautiful Bill”

An interesting element shaping voter attitudes is concern over Social Security and Medicare. About 30% of respondents cited protecting these programs as part of the larger affordability crisis impacting New Jersey families.

Meanwhile, President Trump's legislative agenda, dubbed the "big, beautiful bill" by his supporters, is met with skepticism by most voters in the state. Only 36% support the plan, whereas 51% believe it would hurt New Jersey families. This division illustrates the challenge Republicans face in balancing Trump’s influence with local voter priorities.

Trump, Murphy, and the Question of Leadership

When asked about job approval, President Trump and incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy received nearly identical ratings — 44% and 45%, respectively. This parity reveals that the political battle in New Jersey isn’t simply about party loyalty but about which candidate voters trust to tackle pressing state issues.

Opinions on who’s responsible for New Jersey’s current challenges are equally split: 37% blame state leadership in Trenton, 27% point fingers at the federal government in Washington, and 34% believe both share the blame.

Patrick Murray, president of StimSight Research, summed it up well: “The Murphy and Trump numbers are basically a wash. That suggests voters are looking for someone they can trust to address their economic worries, and not someone who just takes swings at the leadership of the opposite party.”

The Trump Factor and Republican Identity

The poll also delved into perceptions of the Republican Party’s current direction. More than half of respondents (54%) strongly agree, and another 12% somewhat agree, that today’s GOP is too focused on catering to Trump. This sentiment could influence how Ciattarelli’s campaign shapes its message, especially given his Trump endorsement.

Candidate Backgrounds: Experience and Endorsements

Mikie Sherrill brings a unique resume to the table. A former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, she has represented New Jersey’s 11th congressional district since 2019. Sherrill gained momentum in the Democratic primary by standing out from a crowded field of five experienced candidates, partly by criticizing Trump and former Department of Government Efficiency chief Elon Musk. Her military and legal background, combined with her focus on government efficiency, appeals to voters seeking a pragmatic, results-driven leader.

Jack Ciattarelli, on the other hand, is no newcomer to New Jersey politics. A businessman and former state legislator, he earned the Republican nomination by defeating four rivals. Ciattarelli is also the Republican nominee from the 2021 governor’s race, which he lost but managed to run a competitive campaign. Endorsed by Trump, Ciattarelli has built his platform around lowering taxes and economic growth — positions that resonate with a significant portion of New Jersey voters.

What This Means Going Forward

With the general election only three months away, the stakes are high. New Jersey’s governor’s race isn’t just about who will lead the Garden State — it’s also a key indicator of how the national political winds might blow heading into the 2026 midterms.

Both candidates face an electorate that is deeply concerned about economic issues, but voters are also weighing who can genuinely deliver solutions rather than just criticize the opposing party. The sizable portion of undecided and flexible voters means the campaigns will likely double down on grassroots outreach, targeted messaging, and debate performances to sway those on the fence.

And while Trump’s shadow looms large over this race, New Jersey voters appear to be sending a message that they want practical problem-solving over political posturing. How Sherrill and Ciattarelli navigate that balance could ultimately determine who wins the governor’s mansion this fall.