Recently, NBC News released a poll conducted between September 13-17 that reveals a fascinating shift in the political atmosphere. One particular question in this survey highlights the changing fortunes of Kamala Harris. Since July, her favorability rating has skyrocketed by an impressive 16 points—the most substantial increase for any politician's favorability since the spike experienced by President George W. Bush in the wake of the September 11 attacks in 2001. Prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Harris found herself in a precarious position, with 50% of the country holding an unfavorable view of her and only 32% viewing her positively. Fast forward to now, and the same poll indicates that 48% of respondents view her positively, while only 45% hold a negative opinion—a remarkable turnaround in such a brief time.
Context is key here. NBC News began tracking Harris's national favorability back in August 2020, shortly after Biden selected her as his running mate. Throughout this entire period, she has never enjoyed numbers like these. Her highest favorability rating prior to this came in October 2020, when she had a 42% positive and 38% unfavorable rating. As Vice President, her most favorable numbers were recorded in January 2021, with an even split of 41% positive and negative views.
Now, while favorability isn’t a perfect predictor of a candidate’s ability to mobilize voters, it certainly plays a pivotal role, especially in such a closely contested race. To put this into perspective, at this same point in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a favorable rating of just 37%, while Trump’s was even worse at 28%. Fast forward to September 2020, and Trump held a 41% positive view while Biden edged him out slightly with 43% favorability in the NBC News poll. In this cycle, the shifting dynamics could be attributed to multiple factors. For months, Democrats have been quietly worrying about Biden’s chances of not only winning but also serving another term effectively. The floodgates of concern truly opened after a disastrous debate performance where Biden appeared hesitant and uneven on stage against Trump.
In a remarkable twist, Harris’s ascent and impressive rebranding have all but erased any unfavorable comparisons to Selina Meyer, the fictional Vice President from HBO's Veep. As TIME’s Charlotte Alter pointed out in a recent cover story, the political landscape has changed, and suddenly, Trump appears to be the “old guy” lagging behind, continuously peddling conspiracy theories that are alienating even his staunchest supporters.
The NBC News data tells a compelling story about this shift. When pollsters asked about a hypothetical matchup between Harris and Trump back in July, things looked bleak for the Democrats; Trump held a slight edge at 47% to Harris’s 45%. However, as the narrative has changed and the reality of Harris's candidacy has set in, she now leads Trump, 49% to 44%. This seven-point swing in favor of the Democrats since Biden’s exit is significant, indicating a potential momentum shift that could impact the final outcome. Other polls suggest that while she’s ahead, it’s not by much, so the race remains competitive.
One of the critical factors driving Harris’s surge is a growing public perception of her ability to do the job effectively. While Biden was still in the race, only 21% of voters believed he was physically and mentally fit to hold the presidency compared to Trump. Now, that number has dramatically increased; 54% of voters feel confident that Harris can handle the responsibilities of the role. Perhaps the initial criticisms aimed at Biden’s capabilities were overly harsh, but once that image took hold, it became nearly impossible to shake off.
In response to this newfound momentum, Harris’s campaign has been diligent in reminding supporters that they still consider themselves the underdogs. Particularly as Trump seems to be performing better in battleground states compared to his national standing, both the campaign team and Harris herself emphasize the importance of remaining grounded. They understand that this election is still very much within the margin of error, and they need to maintain at least a two- to three-point lead nationally to have a realistic shot at victory in the Electoral College, which historically favors Republicans.
As we approach the final stretch of the campaign—just six weeks until Election Day, with early voting already beginning in some states—it’s essential to recognize how much this race has shifted in both subtle and significant ways. While it remains the closest election in the past six decades, the dynamics are not quite the same as they were three months ago. The ground has shifted, and in politics, once the ground starts to wobble, it can pave the way for more substantial changes ahead.
Looking ahead, the question remains: will this shift continue to propel Harris and the Democrats forward, or will Trump and the Republicans find a way to regain their footing? As we navigate this unpredictable terrain, one thing is clear: the stakes have never been higher, and the excitement surrounding this election is palpable. From dramatic debates to shifting polls, the coming weeks promise to be a rollercoaster ride of political intrigue that will keep us all on the edge of our seats.
In conclusion, the evolving political landscape is not just about numbers and statistics; it’s about the stories, the characters, and the very real implications these changes have for the future of the nation. With so much on the line, each moment of this campaign is critical, and as voters engage with the process, their voices will shape the outcome. Whether you’re a staunch supporter or a curious observer, it’s an exciting time to be a part of this democratic journey. Let’s buckle up and see where the next chapter of this political saga takes us!
Login