For the first time in the ongoing U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ted Cruz is facing a significant challenge from Democrat Colin Allred, according to a recent Morning Consult poll. The poll, conducted between September 9 and 18, reveals that Allred has taken a slight lead over Cruz, coming in at 45 percent to Cruz’s 44 percent among 2,716 likely voters. This marks a dramatic shift in momentum as Cruz had maintained a lead in earlier polls, and now the race is tighter than ever.
While the poll shows Allred ahead by just one point, it’s crucial to note that the lead falls within the margin of error, which is +/- 2 percentage points. Nevertheless, this is a significant moment in the campaign, as it is the first time that Cruz, the incumbent Republican Senator from Texas, has trailed his opponent in the race. Allred didn’t waste any time celebrating this news. In a spirited post on X (formerly Twitter), Allred expressed his enthusiasm: “For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don't know about y'all but I'm fired up and ready to WIN! We've got 47 days, let's do this Texas.”
Despite this development, not everyone is convinced that Cruz is in serious trouble. The Cook Political Report still categorizes the Texas Senate race as “Likely Republican,” suggesting that Cruz has a strong chance of holding onto his seat. However, this new polling data does raise some eyebrows, especially among Republicans. Historically, Texas has been a stronghold for the GOP, with the state consistently sending Republicans to the Senate since 1990. Yet, the fact that this race is so close has some Republicans on edge.
If we take a step back and look at the polling history in this race, we can see how volatile things have been. For instance, a previous Morning Consult poll conducted between August 30 and September 8 had Cruz ahead by a comfortable 5-point margin, with 47 percent support compared to Allred’s 42 percent. Other polls have similarly shown Cruz with a lead, though by varying margins. A YouGov and University of Texas poll, conducted between August 23 and 31, found Cruz ahead by 8 points among 1,200 registered voters. Meanwhile, another poll by ActiVote, held between August 13 and 29 with 400 likely voters, showed Cruz leading by 10 points. Clearly, the numbers have been bouncing around, and Cruz's lead has fluctuated, ranging from smaller gaps of 2-4 points to larger leads like the 8-point advantage seen in the YouGov poll.
Still, this new poll from Morning Consult paints a different picture, and it’s hard to ignore the fact that the race is now closer than it’s ever been. RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker has Cruz on average ahead by 6 points, but Allred’s latest surge has injected new life into the contest. Could Texas, a long-standing Republican stronghold, be on the verge of a political shift?
Adding fuel to the fire, some notable Republicans have expressed concern about Cruz's campaign strategy. Chris LaCivita, who was Donald Trump’s campaign manager, voiced his frustration on social media last week. "What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas? I think I know... and I think I know his name... time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz," he wrote on X, implying that Cruz’s campaign needs a major shake-up to maintain his position.
Republicans are beginning to feel the pressure as they look at how tight the race has become. Cruz, who famously won a close race against Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018 by just over 214,000 votes out of more than 8.3 million cast, may be facing an even tougher battle this time around. And it’s not just the polling numbers that have caused concern—Cruz’s political record is being called into question as well.
In a significant blow to Cruz’s campaign, former Republican Representative Liz Cheney has openly voiced her support for Allred. On Monday, Cheney told voters in Dallas that she had made the trip to the city to back Allred’s bid for the Senate. Cheney’s criticism of Cruz was harsh, and she didn’t hold back. "I've known Ted Cruz for 20 years. And it's been clear—everybody who knows Ted Cruz, and I'm sure most of you in this room know Ted Cruz, nobody thinks Ted Cruz is a man of great honor," Cheney stated. She went on to slam Cruz for his role in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. "What Ted Cruz did after the 2020 election makes him clearly unfit for office," Cheney declared, pointing out that Cruz had pushed Donald Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud, despite knowing that Joe Biden had won and that the election results had been certified across all states.
Cheney’s comments are significant because they reflect growing dissatisfaction with Cruz from within his own party. As a prominent Republican voice, Cheney’s condemnation could sway moderate Republicans and independents who are on the fence about Cruz. Cheney didn’t mince words when she emphasized the stakes in this race, saying, "These jobs really matter, and in this race, I want to do everything I can to help ensure that the people of Texas elect Collin Allred."
With this endorsement from Cheney, Allred gains not only a political ally but also a figure whose criticism of Cruz resonates with voters frustrated by the events surrounding the 2020 election. While Cruz remains a formidable opponent, these internal GOP rifts and the tight polling margins spell trouble for his reelection bid.
On the Democratic side, excitement is building. Monique Alcala, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, told The Hill that “enthusiasm is high” among Democrats for Allred’s candidacy. The tight polls have energized Democratic voters, many of whom see Allred as a viable candidate who could flip the seat and break the Republican stronghold in Texas.
The next few weeks will be crucial as both campaigns ramp up their efforts to rally voters. Cruz, a seasoned politician with deep ties to the GOP, has a significant base of support, but Allred’s momentum is undeniable. As the race continues to tighten, both candidates will be working tirelessly to sway the undecided voters who could ultimately determine the outcome of this high-stakes Senate race.
It’s clear that this election is about much more than just one Senate seat—it’s a referendum on the future of Texas politics. Will Texas remain a Republican stronghold, or could Allred’s campaign mark the beginning of a new era for the Lone Star State? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain: this race is far from over, and the outcome is anything but guaranteed.
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