If Donald Trump makes a triumphant return to the White House, there's one crucial voting group that might just have his name all over it: men. This isn't just speculation; it's at the heart of the Trump campaign's strategy for the upcoming election. As we inch closer to the final weeks before voting, the former President and his political team are laser-focused on mobilizing low-to-mid propensity male voters, particularly those who are younger. The goal? To strategically push these voters to the polls and secure a victory that many thought was lost.
This ambitious approach marks a significant departure from traditional political strategies. Instead of sticking to the usual media interviews and sound bites, the Trump campaign is diving into long-form discussions with popular podcast hosts who appeal to a young male audience. Think of names like Theo Von, Lex Friedman, Logan Paul, the Nelk Boys, and the king of podcasts himself, Joe Rogan. This shift aims to tap into their massive followings, reaching men who may not be as engaged with conventional news outlets.
But the unconventional methods don't stop there. Instead of relying solely on endorsements from the usual political heavyweights, Trump's campaign is highlighting support from professional athletes. These endorsements are from recognizable figures like Brett Favre, the legendary former quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, and boxing sensation Jake Paul. The campaign has set up its operations in Palm Beach with an extensive data system to pinpoint irregular GOP male voters and unregistered young men in critical swing states, those who might just tip the scales back in Trump’s favor.
Top Trump officials have shared insights into the strategy with TIME, emphasizing a clear truth: the majority of regular voters have made up their minds about Donald Trump. But, as recent internal surveys and focus groups reveal, a segment of men under 40 appears more flexible in their political leanings, particularly those who don't consume traditional news. One Trump aide put it bluntly: “We are not doing super-political media. You see us talking to younger and more male audiences. It’s data driven.” This analysis also draws from historical trends; while Joe Biden performed similarly with women as Hillary Clinton did in the previous election, he made significant inroads with men. Trump outperformed Biden among men in 2020, winning by a six-point margin, while he had an eleven-point lead over Clinton in 2016. The Trump campaign has zeroed in on a simple but compelling strategy: “Max out the men and hold the women.”
But let's not kid ourselves; this approach faces its own set of challenges. The American political landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation, particularly after the Supreme Court, influenced by three of Trump's conservative appointments, dismantled the constitutional right to abortion. Following the 2022 Dobbs decision, Republicans have struggled in various races nationwide. Women voters are showing heightened motivation to get to the polls, with a recent New York Times/Siena poll indicating that they favor Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump by a solid 12 points. Trump’s advisers are acutely aware of this reality and understand that while they may not win women voters outright, the goal is to maintain the same level of support as in the past two elections. This is why the campaign has tried to steer the conversation back to the economy, immigration, and crime—topics they believe resonate particularly well with suburban women. As one aide succinctly put it, the aim is to “hold them steady, don’t lose ground.”
Yet, the power of female voters could prove to be a formidable obstacle in Trump’s path to victory. A recent analysis by POLITICO highlights that women make up approximately 55% of early voters in key battleground states, leaving men at 45%. This gender gap is evident in states like Pennsylvania, where early voting trends indicate a notable skew toward female voters. With Pennsylvania holding 19 electoral votes, it's deemed essential for both candidates. In response, Trump-aligned groups are investing hundreds of millions into voter registration and mobilization efforts there. This has recently received a boost thanks to billionaire Elon Musk, who contributed $118 million to enhance Trump’s prospects in this critical swing state.
The concerted effort extends beyond Pennsylvania, with similar operations cropping up across other battleground states. Groups aligned with Trump are establishing field organizations to connect with potential voters. Thanks to a ruling from the Federal Elections Commission in March, Trump's campaign can maintain communication with PACs and nonprofits, allowing for a more synchronized strategy across the board.
In some swing states, this strategy is already showing positive signs. In Arizona, for example, the Trump campaign's voter registration and turnout initiatives have been largely managed by the right-wing group Turning Point USA. Their efforts are paying off, with Republican males emerging as the leading demographic for early voting among new voters. Turning Point's “Chase the Vote” initiative was born out of necessity after the 2022 midterms saw Republican candidates face significant losses, including a narrow defeat for gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who lost by about 17,000 votes. In the previous presidential election, Trump himself lost Arizona by roughly 10,000 votes.
Turning Point has created what they call a “community-organizing model” aimed at energizing both staunch MAGA supporters and more casual conservative voters to cast their ballots early, whether by mail or in person. Tyler Bowyer, the group's chief operating officer, articulated their focus: “We’re concentrated on highly-likely Republicans who are low-propensity voters.” They recognize that these individuals might not regularly vote but share their ideological beliefs. To facilitate this, Turning Point has brought on thousands of paid staffers to assist with voter registration and offer a “concierge service” to ensure mail ballots are returned.
If polling trends hold true, this election could hinge on the margins. The Trump campaign believes their future rests on the shoulders of younger men who may not be deeply engaged in politics but could ultimately help deliver a victory. It’s a bold gamble, relying on a historically fickle segment of the electorate. But this is the essence of Trump’s unconventional campaign approach. “We start with what the data tells us our highest opportunities are, then we pursue that,” a Trump official explained. “Sometimes that runs up against what the outside world expects.”
In conclusion, as the election looms closer, it’s clear that Trump’s campaign is honing in on men, particularly younger voters, while attempting to hold onto as much female support as possible. Whether this strategy will pay off remains to be seen, but it certainly showcases the evolving dynamics of American politics. With unconventional tactics and a focus on specific voter segments, the Trump campaign is gearing up for a high-stakes battle that could redefine the landscape of the 2024 election.
Login