The surprise victory of President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 election was largely driven by impressive gains in suburban working-class communities around Philadelphia, as a new analysis from The Inquirer reveals. Trump managed to reverse some of the momentum that Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden had built in the region, particularly in the key suburban counties, preventing Harris from securing the kind of margins that Biden enjoyed in 2020.
Trump’s impact in these suburbs was significant—he managed to secure 37,000 more votes in the area than in 2020, contributing around a third of his total statewide margin. When factoring in losses for the Democratic Party, the suburbs collectively shifted towards Trump by about 51,000 votes. This shift represents a substantial change in the voting patterns of a region that had seen a notable leftward trend in recent elections.
In 2020, Biden’s victory was largely attributed to flipping parts of traditionally Republican suburban areas blue and gaining huge support in Democratic strongholds like the affluent Main Line communities. This was seen as a key to his win in Pennsylvania. In 2024, however, the suburbs were once again a focal point for both campaigns, given that nearly one-third of the state's electorate resides in these areas. Both Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, campaigned heavily in these regions, with Trump visiting seven times and Harris making six stops of her own. Trump’s efforts clearly paid off as he made major gains in several suburban areas, even flipping some working-class townships like Bensalem in Lower Bucks County.
Bucks County: A Crucial Flip
One of Trump’s most significant victories in the suburbs came in Bucks County, the last remaining purple county in the region. Although Trump lost three of the four suburban counties in the area, he narrowly flipped Bucks County, making him the first Republican presidential candidate to win there since 1988. The success was especially apparent in Lower Bucks County, where Trump made notable inroads.
Trump's team focused on flipping towns that had voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, and their efforts yielded substantial results. Among the four towns that switched from Democratic to Republican in 2024, three were located in Bucks County—Bensalem, Tullytown, and Penndel. The fourth was Lower Moreland in Montgomery County. Trump’s campaign also made a memorable appearance in Bucks, with a particularly hands-on visit where he worked the fryer and served food at a drive-through event, showcasing his direct connection with voters.
Shifting Trends in Delaware County and Montgomery County
Trump’s success wasn’t limited to Bucks County. Across the broader suburbs, a large number of precincts shifted Republican in 2024, with more than 1,000 out of approximately 1,400 precincts turning toward the right. Only 304 precincts moved left, and even in traditionally blue areas like southeast Delaware County, Trump made significant gains. In Upper Darby, the easternmost part of the township experienced an 11.3 percentage-point swing in favor of Trump from 2020 to 2024. Although some of this was balanced by gains in the more Democratic Drexel Hill neighborhood on the west side of Upper Darby, the overall trend in the area was clear—Upper Darby shifted roughly 1.9 percentage points toward the right.
Even Montgomery County, long considered a Democratic stronghold, saw key Democratic strongholds diminish in size. Towns that had voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020—like Upper Merion, Whitemarsh, Conshohocken, and Whitpain—remained Democratic, but their margins were notably smaller. This signaled a shifting political landscape in once-safe blue areas.
While the suburbs of Philadelphia remain predominantly Democratic, with 25 municipalities that Biden flipped to blue in 2020 maintaining their Democratic status in 2024, Trump’s inroads in these areas were significant. He managed to win back 10 towns that had switched from Republican to Democratic between 2016 and 2020, giving him a critical foothold in a region that had been a key battleground in previous elections.
Trump’s Success in Working-Class Communities
One of the most striking aspects of Trump’s victory in the suburbs was his ability to appeal to working-class communities. These were areas where incomes were lower than average and educational attainment was also on the lower side. These communities, which have often been less responsive to traditional political messages from both parties, responded to Trump’s economic populism and focus on issues like inflation, which was a major concern for many voters, especially those in lower-income brackets.
Trump’s performance in these working-class suburbs mirrors his broader appeal in other parts of the state, where inflation was a driving issue for many voters. While turnout in these precincts was generally lower than in areas with higher incomes, Trump still managed to make meaningful gains, especially in areas where fewer than half the population held a bachelor’s degree.
Changing Suburbs: From Chamber-of-Commerce Conservatism to Democratic Growth
For years, suburban counties in Pennsylvania have been seen as critical to the success of both parties. Once bastions of chamber-of-commerce-style conservatism, these areas have shifted dramatically since Trump took office in 2016. Over the years, they have become key battlegrounds for Democrats, who have seen substantial growth in suburban regions across the nation.
However, Trump’s strong performance in 2024 signals that Democrats may have reached their ceiling in the collar counties. His gains, particularly in working-class suburbs, suggest that the leftward shift in these areas might not be as entrenched as once thought. While the suburbs remain largely Democratic, Trump’s success in reducing Democratic margins and flipping key towns demonstrates that there is still room for Republicans to make inroads, especially in areas where economic issues resonate strongly with voters.
In summary, the 2024 election marked a significant shift in the political landscape of the Philadelphia suburbs. Trump’s strategic campaigning, particularly in working-class communities, paid off in a big way. He not only flipped key towns in Bucks County but also made meaningful gains in other suburban areas, narrowing the Democratic lead and signaling potential changes for future elections. The suburbs, which were once seen as Democratic strongholds, have become more competitive than ever before, and Trump’s 2024 performance shows that the political dynamics in these regions are far from settled. As inflation remains a key issue, the impact of these working-class communities on future elections will likely continue to shape the political landscape in Pennsylvania and beyond.
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