On Tuesday, CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, took a deep dive into President Donald Trump’s recent proposal to bring back the infamous Alcatraz prison in San Francisco Bay. He argued that this move ties into Trump's strong polling numbers regarding crime. As Enten pointed out during his conversation with CNN’s Kate Bolduan, while some might dismiss the proposal as just another late-night talking point, there’s more beneath the surface.
Enten’s analysis showed that Trump is bringing attention to an issue where Americans generally approve of his actions. And that's no small feat. "What it actually speaks to is Donald Trump focusing the American people’s attention on an issue in which they actually do like what he’s doing," Enten explained. This proposal—one that has raised eyebrows—could play well with the public’s growing concern over crime.
Just this past Sunday, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to announce that he was directing federal agencies to reopen a “substantially enlarged and rebuilt” Alcatraz, specifically to house what he called “America’s most ruthless and violent offenders.” The idea of reopening such a notorious prison has sparked conversations across the country, raising questions about its feasibility, its cost, and whether it’s more of a publicity stunt than a practical solution.
Alcatraz, for many, is a name synonymous with inescapable conditions and notorious criminals. This maximum-security facility, once located in the waters of San Francisco Bay, operated for nearly three decades before being closed in 1963 after falling into disrepair. During its 29-year run, Alcatraz housed some of the most infamous criminals in American history.
But, as Enten highlighted, the proposal is more than just an idea rooted in nostalgia for one of the most infamous prisons in U.S. history. According to a recent poll from Ipsos, Trump’s approval ratings on crime are higher than those of President Joe Biden by a significant margin. Trump’s net approval on the handling of crime was a solid two percentage points above the positive mark when voters were asked last month. This stands in stark contrast to Biden’s net approval rating, which hit a low point of -26 percentage points last year. This gap, Enten noted, is something “you rarely ever see.”
In fact, Trump’s approval on crime has improved substantially in recent months. Between March and April of 2024, polling data revealed that Trump’s net approval on the issue of crime had jumped a significant 15 percentage points. This could be a clear signal that crime is an issue where Trump has captured the attention and approval of voters in ways that are hard to ignore.
The idea of reopening Alcatraz might sound like a publicity stunt to some, and experts have cautioned that the costs of such an endeavor could be astronomical. One sociology professor who has studied Alcatraz even suggested to Time Magazine that a new prison on the island would likely be more about Trump’s political image than an effective solution to crime. While that’s a fair point, the mere mention of such a proposal is enough to keep the conversation alive.
Let’s not forget the history behind Alcatraz. Beyond its reputation for housing criminals like Al Capone, the island became a symbol of resilience and resistance during the 1969-1971 Native American occupation. Now, it draws over 1.2 million visitors every year, commemorating that historic stand. So, Trump’s proposal also sparks another conversation: Could such a dramatic return to the island’s prison roots overshadow its more recent cultural significance?
While many critics focus on the potential financial drain of reopening Alcatraz, the underlying reality is that Trump is framing this as a solution to what many perceive as America’s growing crime problem. In his mind, reviving a piece of history like Alcatraz could serve as a bold statement on crime, a message that resonates with the public’s frustration over rising violence in certain urban areas.
Trump has long framed himself as the “law and order” candidate, a stance that helped propel him to the presidency in 2016. His approach to crime—backed by tough rhetoric—resonates with voters who are concerned about safety and security. “So Donald Trump ran in part on law and order. It was one of the reasons that he got elected. And at this particular point, Americans like what they’re hearing from him on the issue of crime,” Enten remarked. His words ring true when we look at how the public has responded to his stance on crime over the years.
This idea of “law and order” is more than just a campaign slogan; it’s a part of Trump’s political DNA. His handling of crime is not a new narrative—it’s one he’s consistently played up in his time on the national stage. Whether you agree with his policies or not, there’s no denying that this is an issue he’s shown a knack for tackling in ways that keep his base engaged.
Could Trump’s proposal to reopen Alcatraz be another political chess move? Given the current polling data, it seems like Trump is tapping into an issue that keeps his supporters and potential voters intrigued. With crime rates rising in various parts of the country, particularly in larger cities, it’s no surprise that law and order remain top concerns for many voters. Trump’s narrative on this issue is designed to give the American public a sense of reassurance. By proposing such a bold move as reopening Alcatraz, he’s telling voters that he understands their frustrations and is willing to take drastic action to fix the problem.
And let’s not overlook the fact that Trump’s approval on crime matters far outweighs Biden’s approval, making this an even more significant point in the lead-up to the 2024 election. If Trump can continue to capitalize on the public’s growing concern over crime and position himself as the solution, it could play a major role in his campaign.
The question remains, though: Is reopening Alcatraz the answer, or is it just another political stunt? Only time will tell, but as Enten pointed out, there’s one thing we know for sure—Trump has managed to keep crime at the forefront of the political conversation, and whether you love him or loathe him, you can’t deny that he’s playing this issue to his advantage.
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