Donald Trump has seen a major shift in his approval ratings, hitting a net positive personal approval score for the first time in years. According to RealClearPolling, which has tracked his ratings since July 2015, Trump’s approval has climbed to a net score of +1.8 percentage points as of December 7. This positive approval rating ticked up even further to +2 by December 11. This marks a substantial improvement from earlier in the year, when Trump's approval was at a negative -12.8 percentage points in late June.
This surge in popularity follows his remarkable victory in the November 5 election, where Trump secured a second term as president. With 312 Electoral College votes compared to his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris’ 226, Trump's success in battleground states was especially significant. He won key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that were crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
Trump’s improved approval ratings are certainly a boost as he gears up for his second inauguration on January 20. With the Republican Party holding a majority in both chambers of Congress, as well as a Supreme Court leaning conservative, Trump is in a prime position to push forward with his political agenda once he takes office again.
Recent polling data included in RealClearPolling shows a variety of opinions about Trump's favorability. A survey conducted by The Economist/YouGov, which polled 1,593 American adults between December 8-10, gave Trump a +2 favorability rating. Another poll by Morning Consult, which surveyed 2,270 registered voters between December 6-8, had Trump even higher at +3 approval.
In the days leading up to Thanksgiving, Rasmussen Reports polled 1,266 likely voters, giving Trump a net approval rating of +7. However, Rasmussen Reports has faced some scrutiny for its methodology. The polling group was dropped by FiveThirtyEight in March after being deemed unreliable for meeting their standards.
The news of Trump's approval ratings caught the attention of many, including Newsweek, which reached out to his presidential transition team for comment on Friday. Speaking to the magazine, Mark Shanahan, a professor of American politics at the University of Surrey in the UK, offered some insight into the numbers. Shanahan suggested that Trump's positive favorability could be attributed to what he called "the calm before the storm." Essentially, Trump's rating reflects a moment of anticipation—he’s been elected, but not yet in office, so the rating is based on what people expect rather than actual performance.
For Trump supporters, the anticipation has been about his strong positions on the economy and immigration, while critics may still be skeptical about his stance on issues like abortion and social services. Shanahan also pointed out that Trump’s decisive actions, particularly regarding his cabinet appointments, are in stark contrast to the outgoing Biden administration. Some might see Trump's ratings as driven by optimism or even wishful thinking, which could change once he actually starts his second term.
Trump's approval journey has been anything but linear. When RealClearPolling first started tracking him in 2015, he had a net disapproval rating of -39.3 percentage points, with a whopping 62% of Americans viewing him unfavorably and only 22.7% holding a positive view. After his unexpected victory in the 2016 election, Trump’s popularity saw a sharp rise. By January 2017, his net disapproval was reduced to just -4, but his approval began to dip again in the years following, especially after the Capitol Hill riot on January 6, 2021, when his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. By the time he left office in January 2021, his net disapproval had skyrocketed to -21.6 percentage points.
However, following his narrow escape from an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally in July 2023, Trump’s ratings showed signs of improvement. He went from a -12 approval in July to -7.9 in August. As the November 5 election results rolled in and Trump was declared the winner for a second time, his popularity shot up even more, breaking into positive territory for the first time in several years.
This surge in approval can also be linked to the memes and social media buzz that followed Trump’s victory, particularly the viral videos of him dancing to "YMCA" by the Village People. These playful moments likely helped solidify a positive perception among his base, adding a more lighthearted layer to his political comeback.
In a related development, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski made comments about Trump’s incoming administration, signaling that GOP lawmakers should be ready to "toe the line" to avoid being placed on a "naughty list" for the upcoming primary contests. Murkowski made these remarks at a conference held by the nonpartisan group No Labels in Washington, D.C. Her comments reflect the ongoing power struggle within the GOP as Trump assumes the mantle of leadership once again.
Looking ahead, Trump’s team faces the challenge of maintaining this positive momentum as he approaches his second inauguration. His transition will be watched closely, and it’s clear that both his supporters and critics will be paying attention to the early actions of his new administration. Will Trump’s positive approval ratings hold up once he takes office again, or will the reality of a second term lead to a dip in popularity?
As it stands, Trump’s improved approval ratings are a testament to his resilience and ability to connect with his base. While some may argue that these ratings are based on optimism and anticipation rather than actual governance, they serve as a reminder that the political landscape can shift quickly. With his control over Congress and the courts, Trump’s upcoming term may very well mark a new chapter in American politics, with an agenda that could significantly impact the nation in the years to come.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s surge in approval ratings highlights the shifting tides of American politics. From a historically low disapproval rating in 2015 to a positive approval rating in late 2023, his journey has been full of ups and downs. Whether his current popularity will last once he begins his second term remains to be seen, but it’s clear that Trump is well-positioned to make an impact as he prepares for the challenges of governing in the years ahead.
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