If You Thought Trump’s Trade War Was Cooling Off—Think Again. Tariffs Are Back on the Rise.
Just when many thought the dust had settled on President Donald Trump’s trade battles, he dropped a curveball: tariffs are about to go up again.
The Latest Twist: Tariffs Are Climbing
Wrapping up his recent trip to the Middle East, Trump made it clear—trade talks with dozens of countries are moving way too slow. So, instead of endless back-and-forths, he’s set a deadline: a few weeks from now, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will notify countries of their new tariff rates. No more waiting around.
“We have 150 countries lined up wanting to make deals, but it’s impossible to see them all,” Trump said during a business roundtable in Abu Dhabi. “So, in the next two to three weeks, Scott and Howard will be sending letters out—fairly—but they’ll be telling countries what it’s going to cost to do business here.”
This isn’t just talk. It’s a signal that the U.S. is moving toward setting firm tariff rates for those who don’t reach an agreement soon.
What’s Behind the Hold-Up?
Back on April 9, Trump put a pause on what he called the “massive reciprocal tariffs” he had introduced on April 2—his so-called “Liberation Day.” This pause was meant to last 90 days, giving countries a chance to negotiate.
But here’s the kicker: around 100 countries jumped at the chance to negotiate. That’s a huge challenge for U.S. trade officials, who now have to juggle dozens of complex negotiations, all racing against the clock. If they fail to close deals, some tariffs could spike as high as 50%.
Now, while Trump calls these tariffs “reciprocal,” many experts disagree, pointing out that for smaller countries with big trade deficits, the tariffs could be devastating.
“They could appeal, sure,” Trump acknowledged, “but honestly, it’s just not possible to meet with everyone.”
Flashback: Trump’s Earlier Deadline
This idea of setting tariffs for non-negotiating countries isn’t brand new. Back on April 23, in the Oval Office, Trump announced a similar plan—giving countries a few weeks to negotiate, or else tariffs would be set.
“If we don’t make deals, we’re going to set the tariff,” Trump said. “In the next two or three weeks, we’ll be setting the numbers.”
So far, the administration has hammered out two major trade frameworks that eased tariff pressures: one with the United Kingdom and another with China, negotiated in Geneva.
Where the Deals Stand Now
According to trade negotiators, active talks are ongoing with about a dozen countries. Trump hinted he’s close to finalizing several more agreements. India, Japan, and South Korea have all been named as countries nearing deals, though political changes in South Korea are slowing progress.
But despite these hopeful signs, it’s unclear exactly what tariffs the U.S. will impose on countries that don’t strike deals in the next few weeks. Will these new tariffs replace the paused reciprocal tariffs? Or will they serve as temporary measures while talks continue? No one knows for sure.
For now, America is still running with a 10% universal tariff on nearly every imported good, with some items facing even steeper charges.
The Reality of Rising Tariffs
Commerce Secretary Lutnick has called the 10% tariff a “baseline,” but Trump shot down that idea, suggesting tariffs could be much higher.
Remember the UK deal? It set a tariff at 10%, but Trump said other countries wouldn’t be so lucky. They’ll likely face even steeper tariffs.
Key point: Fitch Ratings reports that, even with the 90-day pause, the U.S. averages a 13% tariff on imported goods—way up from the pre-Trump era’s 2.3% average.
The question on everyone’s mind: How high could tariffs really go? Trump has said he’d celebrate a “total victory” if import taxes hit 50% within a year.
Businesses and Consumers Are Feeling the Heat
Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs has created a whirlwind of uncertainty. Businesses don’t know what to expect, and consumers could soon be paying more for everyday products.
Economists have been ringing alarm bells, warning that the risk of a U.S. recession is about 50/50, especially given the trade tensions.
Markets have reacted, too—plunging sharply at times before rallying again when Trump hinted at negotiation talks.
The Deal-Making Race
Trump has repeatedly claimed his administration is cranking out a wave of new trade deals designed to make trade “fair” and bring manufacturing back to American soil.
In a Time interview last month, Trump said he had already made “200 deals” and planned to announce them within a few weeks.
“I’m dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We’re meeting with China, doing fine with everyone,” Trump said. “Ultimately, I’ve made all the deals.”
But here’s the reality check: actual trade agreements usually take years to negotiate. They involve tons of legal fine print, complex negotiations over goods and non-tariff barriers, and political compromises to protect local industries.
Trump’s concession on Friday—that it’s unrealistic to finalize hundreds of deals quickly—highlights the limits of trying to force quick results through threats of tariffs.
What Does This Mean for Americans?
For now, it means Americans could face higher prices on imported goods as trade tensions persist.
Without swift and smooth trade deals, tariffs could stay high—or even go higher—putting pressure on both businesses and consumers alike.
So while Trump touts progress and promises more deals ahead, the reality is the U.S. trade scene is still very much in flux—and those tariff letters from Treasury and Commerce could change the game sooner than anyone expected.
Key Takeaways:
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Tariffs are likely to rise again soon, with a hard deadline for countries to negotiate deals.
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The U.S. is juggling trade talks with over 100 countries—an enormous and complex challenge.
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Two trade frameworks with the UK and China have eased tariffs, but many countries are still in negotiation limbo.
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The current 10% tariff is just a baseline; Trump hinted tariffs could go as high as 50%.
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Businesses and consumers are caught in a swirl of uncertainty and potentially higher costs.
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Real, comprehensive trade deals take years, despite Trump’s claims of fast progress.
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Americans may face higher prices unless trade talks yield concrete results.
This trade saga is far from over, and if history’s taught us anything, it’s that tariffs and trade wars have unpredictable effects—not just on countries, but on everyday people trying to make ends meet. Stay tuned, because the next few weeks could bring some major moves in the world of U.S. trade policy.
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