Will the 2024 NFL Draft's overall depth, considered weaker than in past years, push Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst to take a more aggressive approach?
According to an article by Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports, there were only 58 early entrants into the 2024 draft, the lowest since 2011. Wetzel notes that in 2019, there were 135 early entrants, with an average of 115 from 2016 to 2022.
This trend continued in 2023, with only 82 early entrants, as players opt to use the transfer portal for immediate eligibility and the Name, Image, Likeness (NIL) rules to stay in college and improve their draft stock. This has resulted in 60-80 additional high-caliber talents returning to college football for the 2024 season.
Gutekunst acknowledged this trend at the NFL Combine, stating, "There are fewer underclassmen... the transfer portal, COVID, and extra years have limited some guys from coming out. NIL, as well, if you can make a little money and go back and try to improve your draft stock compared to coming out." While the draft's top end will still be strong, the depth in later rounds might be lacking compared to previous years.
Although Gutekunst didn't reveal his strategy, this could lead to a more aggressive approach from the Packers, potentially trading away Day 3 picks. Gutekunst has shown a willingness to trade up, having done so in every draft from 2018 to 2022.
Last season, the Packers traded a fifth-round pick for Rasul Douglas to Buffalo, receiving a third-round pick in return. Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, the net difference between pick 91 (which the Packers received) and pick 160 (sent to Buffalo) is 34 points—or pick 101, the first pick of the fourth round.
With 71 players under contract compared to 62 before the 2023 draft, the Packers have less roster space for draft picks and undrafted signees. Gutekunst values draft picks, even those in Day 3, but he might be more willing to trade up for the right player, especially at safety or linebacker, where there's already a limited pool of players who meet the Packers' criteria.
Despite the draft class's size or depth, having 11 draft picks gives the Packers flexibility to move around and draft the best available players. This year, there might be more incentive to maximize that flexibility.
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