You can't miss it. The writing isn’t just on the wall for Deebo Samuel—it's on the floor and ceiling, too. The 49ers made it crystal clear with a move on Tuesday. That's when the team and running back Christian McCaffrey agreed to a contract extension, adding a year to his deal and sweetening the pot a bit more. While it seems like a strange deal, the message to Samuel is clear: this is likely his last year in Santa Clara.
Meanwhile, the McCaffrey deal doesn't really impact Brandon Aiyuk's contract extension talks. Don't expect a quick resolution there, given the skyrocketing wide receiver market. With guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson landing massive deals, Aiyuk and the 49ers' negotiations might drag into late summer or even fall. But rest assured, that deal will eventually get done.
In the NFL's hard salary cap world, the 49ers need to budget roughly $50 million—or 20% of the cap—for their quarterback after the 2025 season. There’s only so much cash to go around. Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams are all near the top of their pay scales. Aiyuk will soon join them, likely making over $30 million a season. McCaffrey reset the running back market and will stay there until at least 2026. Add in Brock Purdy potentially signing one of the NFL’s most lucrative contracts next year, and it all adds up to a ton of money.
And while the NFL’s salary cap keeps going up, it’s not growing fast enough to keep pace with these costs. Cuts are going to have to be made. The process began this past offseason when defensive tackle Arik Armstead was let go. No surprise that McCaffrey and the 49ers struck a new deal in June—Armstead officially came off the books on the first.
Deebo Samuel, who inked a three-year, $73.5 million extension before the 2022 season, is undoubtedly next. He wasn’t alone in being shopped around this past offseason; the 49ers had serious talks to trade him to the AFC before the draft. That deal fell through, and the Niners, still hellbent on winning the Super Bowl, decided to keep Samuel for the 2024 season. They’re a better team with him, after all.
Samuel himself acknowledges the situation. "At the end of the day, the contract was signed, I know what I signed up for, and we’re just focused on this year,” he said on Tuesday. If Samuel has a stellar season, he might force the 49ers to reconsider the seemingly inevitable. At the very least, he’ll ensure a big contract awaits him after a release or trade next spring.
This is the last dance for the current No. 1. And to his credit, Samuel isn’t pretending otherwise. The era of free-wheeling spending is over for the 49ers, and a period of austerity is coming. In the meantime, San Francisco is locking up the players they want for the future. Favorites are being picked, priorities set. Samuel is part of the 49ers' present, but he’s not part of their future. He'd be the first to tell you, “That’s just business.” Cold, ruthless, but ultimately smart business.
And for the 49ers, there’s going to be a lot more of it in the days, weeks, months, and years to come.
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