As baseball's winter meetings kick into full gear, one of the most captivating storylines has centered around the future of Alex Bregman, the Houston Astros’ star third baseman. While much of the attention has been on Juan Soto's free agency, another significant deal unfolded recently that might offer a glimpse into Bregman’s potential future contract. On Saturday, the San Francisco Giants made waves by locking down shortstop Willy Adames with a seven-year, $182 million deal, drawing direct comparisons to Bregman, who is also entering free agency.
Adames' Deal: What Does It Mean for Bregman?
The deal between Adames and the Giants has raised eyebrows for a number of reasons. Adames, one of the premier left-side infielders available this offseason, joins Bregman as one of the top two players at his position, alongside third baseman Alex Bregman. Adames’ contract might shine a light on what kind of deal Bregman could command—though there are a number of nuances to consider when comparing the two players.
For starters, Adames plays shortstop, a position widely regarded as more demanding than third base. That positional difference could certainly affect the type of contract a player like Adames might earn compared to Bregman. Additionally, Adames is younger—he’s two years younger than Bregman and will be entering his age-29 season in 2024. Bregman, on the other hand, will turn 30 during the upcoming season. With Adames’ deal lasting through his age-35 season, a similar deal for Bregman would take him into his age-37 season, adding another layer of complexity to their contract situations.
Breaking Down the Stats: Bregman vs. Adames
Beyond the ages and positions, the comparison between Bregman and Adames also extends to their on-field production. Bregman holds a clear edge in many categories. For example, Bregman has played 231 more regular-season games than Adames, which reflects his longer track record in Major League Baseball. But it’s not just about the numbers. Bregman’s career OPS+ is 132, a significant jump over Adames’ 109. OPS+ is an advanced stat that adjusts for ballpark factors, giving a true measure of a player’s ability to get on base and hit for power. Bregman’s higher mark shows that, historically, he has been a more productive hitter than Adames.
When it comes to WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Bregman again comes out on top. Bregman has posted six seasons of at least 4 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference. In contrast, Adames has done so just twice. Over the past few seasons, Adames has been a solid contributor, but Bregman’s overall consistency and higher production have made him a more valuable player in terms of WAR.
Looking at their performance over the past five years, Bregman holds a substantial advantage. Since 2019, Bregman has compiled a 25.7 bWAR, compared to Adames’ 20.5. Even though Adames had a breakout 2024 season with 32 home runs and a solid 118 OPS+, his career has been somewhat of a roller coaster. Meanwhile, Bregman has shown steady excellence, even though his OPS has dipped slightly in recent seasons.
Defensive Metrics and Recent Achievements
In terms of defense, Adames is generally considered an above-average shortstop, though his defensive metrics took a bit of a hit in 2024. Still, he is known for his strong arm and has been solid throughout his career at shortstop. Bregman, on the other hand, enjoyed a career milestone by winning his first-ever Gold Glove award in 2024. Though his offensive numbers have dipped a bit in recent years, his defense has remained consistent. His ability to contribute both offensively and defensively is a significant reason why the Astros have made him their top priority this offseason.
The Astros’ Offer and Bregman’s Potential Market
Despite the similarities between Adames and Bregman, Astros’ general manager Dana Brown has been careful not to overstate the comparison between the two players. During the winter meetings, Brown emphasized that while people are naturally drawing comparisons between the contracts of Adames and Bregman, each player’s situation is unique. "It’s a different position, different ages, slightly different profiles," Brown explained. He also downplayed any direct connection between the two contracts, focusing instead on the Astros' strategy for retaining their star third baseman.
As of now, Houston has reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156 million deal, which would carry an average annual value of $26 million, the same as Adames’ contract. However, if Bregman and his agent, the renowned Scott Boras, see Adames’ deal as a benchmark, they might push for a deal that exceeds the Astros' current offer. While Houston has maintained a policy of avoiding long-term contracts—something that has allowed the franchise to remain competitive—it remains unclear if they will be willing to break their self-imposed limits for a player of Bregman’s caliber.
Astros owner Jim Crane has spoken publicly about his reservations regarding lengthy contracts, particularly those that stretch into a player’s mid-to-late 30s. Long-term deals, he’s explained, can make it difficult to remain flexible with payroll and roster construction. Nonetheless, Houston’s recent success has allowed them to stay competitive even without committing to massive contracts, and their hopes of retaining Bregman are certainly high.
Other Teams in the Bregman Sweepstakes
As Bregman’s free agency heats up, other teams have begun to make their interest known. The New York Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays have all reportedly eyed Bregman as a potential addition to their rosters. Specifically, there’s been chatter about Bregman moving to second base, with reports that the Red Sox might see him as an ideal fit there. Though Bregman is primarily known for his work at third base, Boras has stated that Bregman would be open to playing second base, which opens up even more possibilities for potential suitors.
Boston manager Alex Cora, who has firsthand experience with Bregman from his time as the Astros' bench coach, praised Bregman’s all-around skill set. "He’s a complete player," Cora said. "Good defender. Offensively, he’s really good. He’s a guy that a lot of people are talking about." Cora’s endorsement only adds to the growing speculation that Bregman could land with a championship-caliber team, and it also highlights just how valuable the Astros’ third baseman is in the eyes of the league.
The Astros’ Optimism
Despite all the outside chatter, the Astros remain optimistic about keeping Bregman in Houston. Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both expressed confidence that the team will retain their star player. “I’m feeling optimistic,” Brown said when asked about the negotiations. Espada also reiterated that Bregman is the Astros' top priority, showing that Houston is committed to making this offseason count.
As the winter meetings continue and more teams enter the fray, one thing is clear: Bregman’s free agency will be one of the biggest stories of the offseason. Whether or not he returns to Houston remains to be seen, but his future looks incredibly bright, and the competition for his services is fierce.
With a strong defensive track record, a potent bat, and the ability to impact winning teams, Bregman is poised to cash in big, whether it’s with the Astros or another team eager to add him to their lineup. Whatever happens, his future in the league is sure to be exciting, and all eyes will remain on him as the offseason unfolds.
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