The Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave the Kansas City Chiefs one of their closest calls this season, taking the reigning Super Bowl champions right to the brink of defeat on Monday night. Though the Chiefs walked away victorious, it was far from an easy win. In a thrilling final-minute surge, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield led his team on a gutsy touchdown drive that tied the game at 24 with just 27 seconds left in regulation, ultimately forcing an overtime showdown.
As Mayfield’s pass connected with wide receiver Ryan Miller for that game-tying score, many fans were on the edge of their seats, wondering if Tampa Bay would take an aggressive gamble and go for the win with a two-point conversion. After all, they were on the road, facing a team as formidable as the Chiefs, so why not try to take the game by the horns then and there? Instead, the Bucs opted to kick the extra point, bringing the game to a tie and sending it into overtime. Some fans and analysts questioned the call, especially with the Chiefs’ powerful offense ready to take the field again. However, head coach Todd Bowles and his team had their reasons for playing it safe, and he addressed the decision after the game.
Bowles downplayed the idea that the team seriously considered going for two points. When asked how much thought he gave to that aggressive move, he simply said, “Very minor.” He went on to explain his reasoning, pointing out the rainy field conditions and emphasizing the strategy behind aiming for overtime. “With the wet conditions on the field, we felt like we had to go into overtime,” Bowles told reporters, noting that while the Buccaneers had momentum, a failed conversion could have put the game out of reach.
On the opposing sideline, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was also asked if he was surprised by Tampa Bay’s decision to play it safe and go for the tie. Reid’s response was quick and to the point: “No, but I’m glad he didn’t.” Clearly, the Chiefs were prepared for whatever the Bucs threw their way, but Reid knew a two-point conversion attempt would’ve forced his team to dig even deeper to secure the win.
Statistically, Tampa Bay’s decision had a slim margin of correctness. According to ESPN analyst Seth Walder, the Bucs' win probability with the extra point was 42.8%, compared to 41.2% if they had gone for the two-point conversion. So, by a fraction, the numbers supported the choice to tie, although it was a near-even split. However, these stats don’t account for the intangible factors that make or break a game, like momentum and confidence.
In fact, many analysts argue that the Bucs might have had the psychological upper hand. They had just charged down the field, scoring from the one-yard line—a spot they might have felt comfortable repeating for a two-point play. The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, had been struggling to contain Tampa Bay’s offense in those final moments, which could have made the Bucs feel emboldened to go for the win. However, this was the Chiefs’ home turf, and they’d been performing exceptionally on third downs, especially in the latter half of the game.
In such a high-stakes moment, though, it’s not just about numbers and probabilities—it’s about the gut feel of the players and coaches on the field. For Tampa Bay, going into overtime likely felt like a safer bet against a team that, despite being undefeated, had shown some vulnerability. Yet, on the flip side, some fans and analysts can’t help but wonder if a two-point attempt would have been the bolder, and potentially better, choice. There’s a sense that by going for the tie, the Bucs passed up an opportunity to seize control and throw Kansas City off balance.
The Chiefs, known for their explosive offense led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, didn’t give the Buccaneers any easy outs during the game, especially with their running game firing on all cylinders. On multiple occasions, they broke through Tampa Bay’s defense in the second half, securing crucial third downs and keeping drives alive. It was clear that the Chiefs’ offensive machine, a blend of smart play-calling and Mahomes' ability to scramble for first downs, wasn’t slowing down.
So, looking back, was Tampa Bay's decision to kick the extra point the right one? Hindsight, of course, is 20/20. But here are some of the key takeaways from the game:
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Conditions on the Field: With the rain making the field slippery, Bowles emphasized this as a major factor in opting for overtime. A missed two-point conversion could have handed the game over to Kansas City on a silver platter.
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Confidence in the Extra Point: While it may have seemed conservative, the extra point was a reliable option. This choice leaned on the strength of their kicker rather than risking a play that might’ve gone sideways.
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Chiefs’ Dominance on Third Down: The Chiefs were executing well, especially on third down plays, which might have influenced Tampa Bay's decision to go into overtime. With the Chiefs’ offense looking strong, forcing overtime appeared to give the Bucs another shot rather than risking it all on one play.
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Psychological Momentum: Having just scored from the one-yard line, Tampa Bay was in a strong position to push for two points. That momentum may have carried them into overtime, but some believe they should’ve tried to ride that energy for the win.
The Bucs’ decision has stirred some debate, sparking questions of “what if” among fans and analysts alike. Should they have gone for it? Maybe. But for the Bucs, a young team led by a new quarterback in Mayfield, the decision to play it safe may have been about the bigger picture. In choosing overtime, they weren’t just considering this one game but looking to build long-term resilience and confidence. This matchup highlighted their strengths and weaknesses in a game that many might not have expected them to come so close to winning.
Ultimately, the game ended as another hard-fought chapter in what’s shaping up to be a dramatic NFL season. The Bucs may have walked away without the win, but they’ve shown that they’re a team willing to challenge the best, even if they take the more cautious route sometimes. This team’s journey is far from over, and as they grow more confident, perhaps the next time they’re in a similar position, the call to go for two might feel more enticing.
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