The Philadelphia Phillies (63-37) and Minnesota Twins (55-44) are squaring off again on Tuesday for game 2 of a 3-game series. This exciting match-up at Target Field has its first pitch set for 7:40 p.m. ET. We've got the inside scoop on BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Phillies vs. Twins odds, plus our expert MLB picks and predictions for your best bets. Buckle up!
Monday's Game Recap
Let's rewind to Monday night where the Twins absolutely dominated the Phillies with a 7-2 victory. The win was secured despite a shaky start from SP Bailey Ober, who allowed a 2-run homer to 1B Bryce Harper in the first inning. But Ober found his groove, pitching 7 innings with just 2 earned runs, 4 hits, 1 walk, and 4 strikeouts. The Twins’ bats were on fire, out-hitting the Phillies 12-4. LF Manuel Margot went 2 for 5 and SS Willi Castro chipped in going 1 for 4, both driving in 2 runs. 1B Carlos Santana (2 for 4) and RF Max Kepler (2 for 3) each added an RBI, and 2B Edouard Julien scored on a wild pitch. This win snapped a 3-game losing streak for the Twins, while the Phillies fell to 1-3 since the All-Star break.
Projected Starters
For the Phillies, RHP Zack Wheeler is taking the mound. He's been lights out this season with a 10-4 record, 2.70 ERA, and an impressive 0.99 WHIP. Wheeler's last outing saw him pitch 5 innings, giving up just 1 earned run with 7 strikeouts in a 10-1 win against the Dodgers on July 9. Interestingly, Wheeler has never faced the Twins before.
On the other side, the Twins are sending RHP Simeon Woods Richardson to the hill. Richardson holds a 3-1 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. In his last start, he went 4 1/3 innings with 2 earned runs, 7 hits, and 7 strikeouts in a no-decision against the Giants on July 13. Just like Wheeler, Richardson has never pitched against the Phillies before.
Betting Lines and Predictions
Let's dive into some betting lines and make some predictions:
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -165 | Twins +140
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Twins +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Moneyline
Lean Twins (+140) - Minnesota is entering this game slightly hotter, with a 3-2 record in their last 5 home games. They've also had the Phillies' number lately, winning the last 3 matchups dating back to last August. With a 6-4 record in the last 10 head-to-head games and a 3-1 record at home since 2016, there's value in taking the Twins at +140.
Run Line/Against the Spread
Pass - While I like the Twins to cover as +1.5 underdogs at -125, the moneyline offers safer odds. The Twins have only finished within 1 run of the Phillies in one of their last 4 losses to Philly. Plus, Minnesota is just 46-53 ATS this season, whereas Philly is 52-48 ATS.
Over/Under
Lean Over 8 (-105) - The Over has been hitting consistently for both teams lately. It's hit in each of Minnesota's last 3 games and is 50-47-2 for the Twins this season. For Philly, the Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games. Historically, the Over has hit in the last 4 Philadelphia-Minnesota matchups in Minnesota and is 6-3-1 in the last 10 overall. Despite the Over being 5-5 in both teams' last 10 games, the trends suggest a slight lean towards the Over at 8 runs.
Exciting Elements
- Bryce Harper’s Homer - Even though the Phillies lost, Harper’s early 2-run homer off Bailey Ober was a highlight. It’s always thrilling to see a star player make a big impact.
- Bailey Ober’s Recovery - After giving up that homer, Ober's ability to settle down and dominate the Phillies' lineup was impressive.
- Minnesota's Balanced Attack - The Twins had contributions from several players, showing off their depth. Margot, Castro, Santana, and Kepler all drove in runs, making it a true team effort.
Fun Fact
- Never Faced Each Other - Both starting pitchers, Wheeler and Woods Richardson, have never faced their respective opponents before. This unknown factor adds an extra layer of intrigue to the game.
Predictions Recap
- Prediction: Twins 6, Phillies 4
- Moneyline: Lean Twins (+140)
- Run Line/Against the Spread: Pass
- Over/Under: Lean Over 8 (-105)
Additional Notes
- Twins' Recent Form: Minnesota is 3-2 in their last 5 home games.
- Phillies' Struggles: Philadelphia is just 1-3 since the All-Star break.
- Head-to-Head: Minnesota is 6-4 in the last 10 games against Philadelphia, with a 3-1 record at home since 2016.
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So, gear up for what promises to be an exciting game between the Phillies and Twins. Whether you're betting or just watching, it's going to be a thrilling matchup at Target Field. Enjoy the game!
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