College football season is winding down, and the drama is reaching a fever pitch. One scenario that’s been eating away at me is what the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee might decide if Indiana falls to Ohio State on Saturday. The implications for Indiana, ranked fifth in the latest CFP rankings, are massive. Their fate could swing wildly depending on the outcome of this high-stakes clash.
Let’s set the stage. The committee’s third set of rankings, released Tuesday night, placed Indiana at fifth overall. However, they’re just seventh in the playoff bracket because Miami and Boise State, as conference champions, snagged the third and fourth spots. With two weeks of regular-season action left, this is how things would look if the season ended today. But, spoiler alert: it’s far from settled.
The First Domino: Indiana vs. Ohio State
Circle this game on your calendar—No. 5 Indiana travels to Columbus to face No. 2 Ohio State at noon on Saturday. Vegas has already spoken, favoring the Buckeyes by 13.5 points (nearly two touchdowns). If the oddsmakers are right, it could create a fascinating puzzle for the committee. Will they punish Indiana harshly for a loss, or will they value their overall season enough to keep them in the conversation?
It’s not just about Indiana and Ohio State, though. As things stand, the CFP committee has shown some love to the SEC, ranking four two-loss SEC teams in the top 12. For example, No. 11 Tennessee just missed the bracket because BYU, ranked 14th, edged them out as the highest-ranked Big 12 team. This SEC favoritism might come into play if Indiana stumbles.
A Nightmare Scenario for Indiana Fans
Here’s where things could get dicey for the Hoosiers. Imagine Indiana loses big to Ohio State on Saturday. Meanwhile, the SEC season ends with four teams boasting two losses each. What does the committee do then? Who gets the boot when it’s time to finalize the bracket?
Let’s take it a step further. Suppose Texas runs the table and takes down Alabama in the SEC Championship. That would leave the committee ranking the following:
- Four conference champions
- The Big Ten Championship runner-up (Penn State, in this case)
- Notre Dame
- The Group of Five winner (assuming Penn State and Notre Dame win out).
With that scenario, you’re looking at four playoff spots but five serious contenders:
- 11-1 Indiana
- 10-3 Alabama
- 10-2 Georgia
- 10-2 Ole Miss
- 10-2 Tennessee
Here’s the kicker: Indiana’s résumé doesn’t exactly scream “elite” compared to the SEC powerhouses. Alabama’s wins include Georgia. Georgia has beaten Tennessee, Texas, and Clemson. Ole Miss knocked off Georgia. Tennessee took down Alabama. And Indiana? Their best victory would be against a team like Washington, Nebraska, or Michigan—none of whom are sniffing the Top 25.
The Strength of Wins vs. Quality of Losses
So how would the committee sort through this chaos? On paper, Indiana might argue they have the "best" loss: Ohio State. Alabama’s losses would include Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Texas in the SEC Championship. Georgia would have fallen to Alabama and Ole Miss. Ole Miss would have lost to Kentucky and LSU. Tennessee’s stumbles? Arkansas and Georgia.
But history isn’t exactly on Indiana’s side. The committee has shown a tendency to favor the SEC. Remember 2017? A one-loss Alabama edged out a two-loss, Big Ten champion Ohio State. That precedent suggests Indiana could find itself on the outside looking in, despite having fewer losses than the SEC contenders. The reasoning? The SEC teams’ superior wins might overshadow Indiana’s consistency.
The Controversy Awaits
If the committee does opt for the SEC over Indiana in this hypothetical scenario, it could spark massive backlash. Fans would argue it undermines the very integrity of the playoff system, especially with the 12-team playoff format debuting next year. It would also leave Indiana fans—and college football enthusiasts in general—bitter about how things unfolded.
But, of course, all this hand-wringing could be for nothing if Indiana pulls off the upset on Saturday. This isn’t just any game; it’s arguably the biggest in Indiana football history. The stakes couldn’t be higher. Can the Hoosiers shock the world and rewrite their narrative? Kickoff is set for noon at Ohio Stadium, with Fox featuring it as their Big Noon Kickoff game of the week.
A Glimpse Into What’s Next
Even beyond Indiana’s outcome, the broader playoff picture is fascinating. The CFP committee faces a tough balancing act. Should they prioritize head-to-head wins, conference championships, or overall records? Every choice has ripple effects, and the next two weeks will provide crucial clarity.
So, buckle up, college football fans. Saturday’s showdown between Indiana and Ohio State is more than just a game—it’s a domino that could set off a chain reaction across the playoff landscape. Will it be chaos or clarity? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for sure: this is what makes college football so thrilling.
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