There’s no denying that UFC 317 is about to deliver fireworks—and Islam Makhachev is watching every second of it unfold. As the vacant lightweight title hangs in the balance, Makhachev—who recently vacated the belt to move up to welterweight—has a keen eye on who will carry the legacy forward at 155 pounds. But if you ask him to pick a winner between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira, the answer is simple and blunt: it’s a coin toss.
“Honestly, it all comes down to whose game plan works better on fight night,” Makhachev told MMA Junkie in a recent interview. “If Charles gets him down, he can finish him fast. But if Topuria catches him standing up—it’s lights out.”
That’s the kind of thrilling unpredictability fans love. Saturday night’s main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is shaping up to be one of the most compelling fights of the year. It’ll air live on ESPN+ pay-per-view, with plenty of eyeballs tuned in—not least of all Makhachev himself, who seems both analytical and emotionally invested in what’s next for the division he once ruled.
🔥 Two Fighters, Two Styles, One Belt on the Line
Topuria enters this high-stakes battle with an unblemished 16-0 record (8-0 in the UFC). The former featherweight champ has skyrocketed up the rankings with his pinpoint striking, confident composure, and knockout power. Oddsmakers have him as the heavy betting favorite. But don’t sleep on Oliveira.
With 35 professional wins (23 of them in the UFC), “Do Bronx” is one of the most seasoned and dangerous fighters on the roster. And despite being counted out more than once in his career, he has a knack for proving doubters wrong.
Makhachev knows firsthand just how dangerous Oliveira can be. After all, it was Makhachev who handed the Brazilian a decisive loss in October 2022, submitting him to claim his first UFC title. Since then, Oliveira has gone 2-1 and remains firmly in the title picture.
“Charles always fights well against strikers,” Makhachev said, nodding to Oliveira’s performances against elite punchers like Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. “Both those guys are excellent on the feet, but Charles was able to hang with them—and even finish them.”
👊 The X-Factors: Ground Game vs. Firepower
Let’s break it down:
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If Oliveira gets the fight to the mat? It could be a wrap. His submission game is among the best in MMA history. He holds the UFC record for most submissions, and he’s made top contenders tap in ways that seemed effortless.
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If Topuria keeps it standing? He’s got the kind of power and precision that could end the fight in the blink of an eye.
Makhachev isn’t trying to make bold predictions—he’s keeping it real. “It’s 50/50,” he said. “Both guys have a clear path to victory. It just depends who executes better.”
That kind of even matchup is what makes this fight so compelling. No matter which camp you’re in, the stakes are high, the narratives are juicy, and the outcome is far from predictable.
🧠 Mind Games & Strategy
While fans often focus on highlight-reel knockouts and slick submissions, fighters like Makhachev know it’s the strategy that wins championships.
“This fight is about more than skills. It’s about focus, discipline, and sticking to what you’re good at,” he said. “It’s going to be who imposes their will first.”
Will Oliveira’s experience and deadly jiu-jitsu be the key? Or will Topuria’s aggression and timing end the night before it even really begins?
😏 Makhachev Throws Some Shade
In classic Makhachev fashion, the Dagestani fighter couldn’t help but throw a bit of sarcasm into the mix.
“I feel bad, man—nobody talk about International Fight Week,” he quipped. “Nobody talk about the main event.”
That tongue-in-cheek comment wasn’t just a joke—it was a subtle jab at the UFC’s promotional focus (or lack thereof) during one of the biggest weeks of the year. Makhachev, who’s had his share of verbal scuffles and tense moments with Oliveira and others, clearly knows how to stir the pot, even when he's not in the cage.
💬 Makhachev's Legacy Looms Large
Although he won’t be fighting on this card, Makhachev’s presence is still felt. After dominating Oliveira to win the belt and defending it in emphatic fashion, he left the lightweight division on top. Now, all eyes are on who will step into the void he left behind.
As he embarks on a new journey at welterweight, Makhachev remains curious about the future of the weight class that made him a superstar.
“Every time I watch, I think—would I beat this guy again? Or how would I do against this one?” he said with a grin. “Of course, I want to see what happens.”
🎯 What’s At Stake at UFC 317?
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A new champion is guaranteed—no interim talk, no asterisks.
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Topuria could make history by becoming a two-division titleholder in record time.
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Oliveira could reclaim his throne and remind the world why he’s one of the greatest lightweights ever.
And for Makhachev? It might just set the stage for future matchups—maybe even a return to 155 for the right payday or a cross-divisional superfight.
📌 Final Take
No matter who walks out of Las Vegas with the belt, Makhachev's fingerprints are all over this moment. He paved the way with his dominance and is now watching as Topuria and Oliveira battle for the crown he left behind.
So, if you're tuning in to UFC 317, keep your eyes glued to that main event. Whether it's a ground clinic from Oliveira or a highlight-reel KO from Topuria, one thing’s for sure—this ain’t a fight you’ll want to miss.
And remember: In Islam Makhachev’s words, it’s a coin toss. And in the UFC, anything can happen when that coin hits the mat.
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