John Harbaugh's High-Stakes Challenge Strategy: Risk vs. Reward in the Ravens' Recent Games

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Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has an interesting philosophy when it comes to the use of challenge flags: the best way to maintain a solid winning percentage might be to keep that red flag snugly tucked into your belt. But of course, that's not how Harbaugh thinks.

“I don’t think that way,” Harbaugh said, confidently owning his approach.

Since 2008, Harbaugh has challenged 129 calls in total, with a success rate of 54 overturned calls against 75 upheld ones. That's the most challenge losses among active NFL coaches—just edging out Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, who’s had 72 unsuccessful challenges in 143 attempts. Even Bill Belichick, widely regarded as one of the greatest NFL coaches ever, has lost 78 challenges out of 131 tries.

In the Ravens’ recent 26-23 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, Harbaugh reached for his challenge flag twice. And both times, it didn’t go his way, costing the Ravens a couple of precious timeouts and ultimately contributing to their 0-2 record for the first time since 2015. Harbaugh’s current streak? Six straight lost challenges. His last successful challenge came on Jan. 1, 2023, per Pro Football Reference.

Yet, despite the numbers, Harbaugh isn’t rattled by his record with challenges. “I’m not worried about the record,” Harbaugh said the day after the game. “I’m trying to think about the opportunity in the game to see if we have a chance to use a challenge to our advantage and try to win the game.”

This mindset speaks to Harbaugh’s risk-taking nature—one that sometimes pays off but, recently, has been more costly than beneficial. His first challenge during the game came in the second quarter when he questioned a low throw to rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers along the left sideline. Flowers, convinced he had made the catch, was heard repeatedly saying, “That’s a catch!” while CBS’s rules analyst Gene Steratore called it “a pretty clean short hop.”

Harbaugh acknowledged that it was a tough call to overturn, but with Flowers insisting, he figured it was worth a shot. “That’s probably a situation where I don’t mind taking a chance there because Zay did have his hand under the ball,” Harbaugh explained. “Maybe there’s a chance they’ll turn that over. I thought it was probably less than 50-50 when I saw it."

Ultimately, Harbaugh didn’t mind risking the timeout in that situation, thinking it was a strategic gamble. However, Lamar Jackson threw an incomplete pass on the next play, followed by Justin Tucker missing a 56-yard field goal attempt wide left. What could have been a two-possession game remained a tight three-point contest heading into halftime.

His second challenge proved even more costly. The Ravens’ defense was battling, and when Davante Adams of the Raiders made an impressive toe-dragging catch along the sideline, Harbaugh threw the challenge flag. “It was moving fast,” he said. “I saw it from afar and I saw it quickly on the replay board. It was a quick shot in the replay booth. I thought to myself, ‘It’s really close. There’s a good chance his toes are still on the ground, but there’s a chance his toes are off the ground.’ And we didn’t have enough time to get another look at it.”

With little time to deliberate, Harbaugh made a gut decision. If the call got overturned, it could’ve been a momentum-shifter. If not, he hoped the lost timeout wouldn’t bite them later in the game. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the challenge was unsuccessful, and they paid the price.

The Raiders trimmed Baltimore’s lead to 23-16 after Las Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson nailed a 25-yard field goal just four plays after the failed challenge. The Ravens, lacking that extra timeout, found themselves without a safety net when they got the ball back with just 27 seconds on the clock, a final attempt at a comeback slipping through their fingers.

But for Harbaugh, it’s not just about the numbers or the stats. His philosophy on challenges extends beyond simply trying to win more than he loses. It’s about making quick, game-altering decisions—sometimes with only a fleeting glance at a replay—and hoping for the best outcome. “I decided on that one to take a shot,” Harbaugh said of the Adams catch. “And it hurt us because we didn’t have the timeout at the end of the game.”

That challenge call, along with the absence of timeouts, played a significant role in the Ravens' inability to close out the game in the fourth quarter. And while Harbaugh is willing to shoulder the blame for his challenges, his decision-making process remains steadfast: “I’m trying to win the game,” he reiterated.

As the head coach of a team that’s consistently competitive, Harbaugh understands the stakes. In the NFL, split-second decisions can mean the difference between winning and losing, and that pressure doesn’t escape him. Even so, the Ravens’ recent struggles with challenges have opened the door to debate. Should Harbaugh become more conservative with his flags, or is his aggressive approach simply part of the package?

In any case, the stakes couldn’t be higher. In a league where margins for error are razor-thin, every timeout, every call, every flag can shift the momentum of a game. And while Harbaugh’s recent challenge record might not inspire confidence, his drive to put his team in the best possible position to win is unwavering.

For now, Ravens fans will have to wait and see whether Harbaugh’s gamble pays off down the road. With the season still young and plenty of games left to play, there’s no doubt that challenge flags will fly again. Whether Harbaugh’s challenges continue to hurt or help will be one of the many subplots to follow in the weeks to come.