This week’s four-game stretch leading up to the 4 Nations Faceoff break might just be the most critical for the Tampa Bay Lightning this season. Every game counts, and with the playoff race heating up, the Bolts need to step up and secure crucial points.
A Pivotal Week Ahead for the Lightning
Who would have thought that facing teams that didn’t even make the playoffs last season—Ottawa at home on Tuesday and Thursday, followed by road games in Detroit on Saturday and Montreal on Sunday—would be so crucial? But here we are. The Eastern Conference playoff battle is tight, and the Lightning can’t afford to take their foot off the gas.
As of Monday, Tampa Bay (27-20-4) found itself one point out of the eighth and final playoff spot. The Ottawa Senators sat two points ahead in third place in the Atlantic Division, while the Detroit Red Wings held the first wild-card spot, just one point ahead of the Bolts. Meanwhile, the Canadiens were lurking five points behind, though Montreal has already won both meetings against Tampa Bay this season.
Momentum is everything, but even more than that, the Lightning need points. They’re 2-4-1 in their last seven games, and a strong showing this week could be the boost they need heading into the mini-break. Here’s what to watch as this crucial stretch unfolds.
1. Are the Senators Finally Living Up to Their Potential?
For the past few seasons, Ottawa has been a team with loads of talent but little success to show for it. That narrative seems to be changing this year, thanks to a defensive improvement that now matches their dangerous offensive firepower.
Heading into Monday’s game in Nashville, the Senators were riding a four-game winning streak, outscoring opponents 16-6 in that span. Their defense has stepped up significantly, ranking sixth in the league and allowing just 2.67 goals per game. That’s a massive improvement for a team that’s been all about offense in recent years.
The Lightning, however, have struggled against the Sens lately, going just 1-5-1 in their last seven matchups. Ottawa has averaged five goals per game against Tampa Bay in that stretch, including a 5-4 win in October. They’ve been deadly on the rush and even scored a shorthanded goal in their last meeting. Add in their power-play success—going 5-for-13 in their last two games—and this is a team the Lightning can’t take lightly.
2. Do the Numbers Tell a Different Story for the Bolts?
If you’re looking at the stats, the Lightning’s offensive struggles over the last seven games might seem misleading. Their “process over outcome” approach has been tested, as they’ve averaged just over two goals per game despite generating plenty of scoring chances.
The advanced metrics suggest that Tampa Bay should be scoring far more. In fact, their expected goals per game over this stretch is 3.89—almost double what they’ve actually put on the scoreboard. They’ve had multiple games where they were expected to net at least 4.50 goals, including a frustrating 3-2 loss to the Islanders on Saturday (where their expected goals were 4.73) and another 3-2 defeat in Montreal on Jan. 21 (where their expected goals were 4.62).
Simply put, the Lightning are generating chances. They’re just not finishing them. If they can start converting at a higher rate, they’ll be in much better shape.
3. Another Hot Goaltender Standing in Their Way?
If there’s one thing that’s been haunting the Lightning lately, it’s running into goalies playing out of their minds. Montreal’s Samuel Montembeault, Detroit’s Cam Talbot, and the Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin have all frustrated Tampa Bay in recent games, and now they might have to deal with another one: Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark.
Ullmark has been out since before the holiday break, but all signs point to his return. He traveled with the team to Nashville, and Ottawa sent Leevi Merilainen to the AHL—indicating that Ullmark is ready to go.
If he is indeed back, expect him to get the nod in net for Tuesday’s game in Tampa and possibly again on Thursday. Ullmark, who was acquired from Boston in the offseason, has a history of shutting down the Lightning. While with the Bruins, he posted a 5-2-1 record against Tampa Bay, boasting a stellar .927 save percentage and a 1.78 goals-against average over eight games since the 2021-22 season.
If he’s back in form, the Bolts will have their work cut out for them.
4. What’s Going on in the Lightning’s Goaltending Situation?
The Lightning made a surprise move on Monday by signing goaltender Brandon Halverson to a two-year, two-way contract and calling him up from AHL Syracuse. Halverson, who is having the best season of his eight-year pro career, was previously on an AHL deal, making this a significant step.
His signing raises questions about the status of backup goalie Jonas Johansson, who has been unavailable since Jan. 28 due to a lower-body injury. Johansson was solid in relief of Andrei Vasilevskiy earlier in the season, but his health remains a concern.
This situation gives Tampa Bay a chance to take a closer look at Halverson, who has been impressive in Syracuse. With a 12-7-7 record, a .918 save percentage, and a 2.20 goals-against average this season, he’s proving he could be a viable option moving forward. If Johansson remains out, Halverson might get his second NHL start this weekend—either Saturday in Detroit or Sunday in Montreal.
The Bottom Line: This Week Could Make or Break the Lightning’s Playoff Push
The stakes are high. With the Eastern Conference race so tight, every point matters. The Lightning need to find a way to convert their chances into goals, avoid letting opposing goaltenders steal games, and get the most out of their own netminders.
With Ottawa looking stronger than ever, Detroit holding onto a key wild-card spot, and Montreal already proving to be a tough matchup, this stretch is no cakewalk. But if Tampa Bay can emerge with a few big wins, they’ll be in a much better position heading into the 4 Nations Faceoff break.
Buckle up, Bolts fans. This week is going to be a wild ride.
Login