Odds and Regular Season Performance
According to DraftKings, Boston has been given -210 odds to win it all, compared to Dallas' +175. The Celtics finished the regular season with an NBA-best 64-18 record. They boast a league-leading +11.6 net rating, a 123.2 offensive rating, and an impressive 111.6 defensive rating, ranking third. Their dominance on both ends of the court has been evident all season.
Boston's Path to the Finals
Boston's journey to the Finals saw them capitalizing on a particularly banged-up Eastern Conference. They faced a Miami Heat team missing its best player, Jimmy Butler, and starting point guard Terry Rozier in the first round. In the second round, they took down a Cleveland Cavaliers team without center Jarrett Allen and All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell for the final two games. The Eastern Conference Finals saw them sweep an Indiana Pacers squad missing All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton for the final two contests. None of the teams Boston has faced in these playoffs have won 50 or more games, a notable metric of quality.
Dallas' Road to the Finals
The 50-32 Mavericks, meanwhile, had a tougher road to the Finals. They defeated the L.A. Clippers, who were missing All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard for all but two games in the first round. They then toppled the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and swiftly handled the Minnesota Timberwolves in a five-game Western Conference Finals series. Each of their playoff opponents had won 51 or more games, providing stiff competition and homecourt advantage.
Key Matchups to Watch
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How Boston Guards Luka Doncic: Luka Doncic is a powerhouse, and despite Boston's strong perimeter defenders, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, they might struggle to contain him. Doncic's size and skill will be a critical factor. Look for Joe Mazzulla to experiment with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum on Doncic for extended stretches. Doncic has been averaging 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game in the playoffs, leading in several key categories.
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How Dallas Defends Kristaps Porzingis: On the flip side, Dallas will need to figure out how to stop the 7-foot-3 Porzingis. Head coach Jason Kidd might start Daniel Gafford on Porzingis, but rookie Dereck Lively II and PJ Washington could also see time guarding him. Porzingis's ability to stretch the floor or dominate around the rim presents a significant challenge.
Boston's Starting Five and Depth Concerns
The Celtics' starting five is a force to be reckoned with: All-Defensive Second Team guards Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, All-Star swingman Jaylen Brown, All-NBA power forward Jayson Tatum, and one-time All-Star center Kristaps Porzingis. Al Horford, a former five-time All-Star, has been crucial as the sixth man, filling in for the injured Porzingis. However, beyond this top six, Boston's depth is questionable. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard have been inconsistent, and Joe Mazzulla has had to toggle between Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman to spell Horford.
Dallas' Dynamic Duo
Dallas is led by its dynamic All-Star backcourt, Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving. Both are among the top late-game scorers in the league, creating magic off the dribble and setting up teammates. They're supported by a young, athletic supporting cast capable of providing solid defense, lob threats, and floor spacing.
The Celtics' Late-Game Decision Making
Late-game decision-making could be crucial for Boston. While Jayson Tatum is the team's best player, his three-point shooting has been shaky this postseason, hitting only 29% of his attempts. Jaylen Brown has had some big moments but is streaky. Jrue Holiday has been reliable from deep, and Porzingis is a consistent inside scorer, but Boston might need to focus more on interior scoring to secure close-range looks and draw fouls.
Get ready for an epic showdown, as the Celtics and Mavericks battle for the championship in what should be an unforgettable NBA Finals.
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