Massive Underdogs or Potential Giant Slayers? Texas Faces Ohio State in High-Stakes Cotton Bowl Showdown
Last week, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t hold back in calling his Longhorns “massive underdogs” against an on-fire Ohio State team. On the eve of their Cotton Bowl clash, he stood firm in his assessment.
“I could probably poll everybody in this room, and you’d probably all agree—they’re the favorite to win the game, and that’s okay,” Sarkisian admitted during Thursday’s press conference at AT&T Stadium, where the College Football Playoff semifinal would unfold the next day. “But that’s football. That’s sports. That’s why we do what we do. I’m not backing off what I said. The reality is the reality.”
And reality hits hard: The oddsmakers pegged the No. 8 Buckeyes (12-2) as 5.5-point favorites over the No. 5 Longhorns (13-2). The red-hot Buckeyes have become a formidable wall standing between Texas and its first trip to the national championship in 15 years. For the Longhorns to overcome the odds, they’ll need nothing less than their best. Let’s break down five key factors that could determine if Texas can pull off the upset.
1. Can Quinn Ewers Keep the Magic Alive?
If Texas is going to topple the nation’s best defense, quarterback Quinn Ewers will have to deliver another jaw-dropping performance—this time for all four quarters.
Flashback to the Peach Bowl: Ewers lit up the scoreboard late in the game, completing 11 of 14 passes for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. That heroic finish propelled Texas past Arizona State.
Against Ohio State, though, Ewers faces an even stiffer challenge. The Buckeyes boast a lockdown run defense that could stifle Quintrevion Wisner and the Longhorns’ ground game. If the rushing attack falters, it’ll be up to Ewers and his arm to carry Texas through.
As the Southlake Carroll alum gears up for his 37th career start (and potentially his last in a Texas uniform), all eyes will be on whether he can rise to the occasion once more.
2. Jeremiah Smith vs. Texas’ Secondary: Clash of Titans
Here’s the golden question: Can Texas stop Jeremiah Smith?
Ohio State’s 6’3” true freshman phenom has been nothing short of spectacular this season, racking up 70 catches for 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns. He torched Oregon in the quarterfinals and now looks to do the same against a Texas secondary that ranks among the nation’s best.
The Longhorns have two options when it comes to covering Smith:
- Option 1: Let senior cornerback Jahdae Barron take him on one-on-one. Barron, a Jim Thorpe Award winner and potential first-round NFL draft pick, leads the nation in coverage grades.
- Option 2: Double-team Smith with Malik Muhammad and a safety, freeing Barron to handle Ohio State’s No. 2 receiver, Emeka Egbuka, one-on-one.
It’s a pick-your-poison situation. Ohio State’s third receiver, Carnell Tate, could exploit the gaps if Smith draws double coverage.
“These opportunities are amazing,” Barron said when asked about the challenge. “It’s a chance to showcase not just our team’s work but the effort we’ve put in as individuals.”
3. The Arch Manning Factor: A Secret Weapon?
Could Arch Manning be Texas’ X-factor?
Sarkisian surprised everyone when he used his high-profile backup quarterback in a late-November game against Texas A&M, where Manning ran for a touchdown. However, opposing defenses have since caught on, limiting his effectiveness in limited appearances against Georgia and Clemson.
While Manning hasn’t seen much action in big moments, he’s shown potential as a versatile runner. Against Ohio State’s top-ranked defense, he could provide a much-needed wrinkle in the Longhorns’ offensive scheme.
Texas offensive coordinator Kyle Flood expressed confidence in Manning’s readiness: “We’ve seen tremendous growth in him. He practices like a pro, and we know he’ll perform well if we need him.”
4. Can Texas Solve Its Kicking Woes?
If it comes down to a field goal, things could get dicey for Texas.
Bert Auburn’s recent struggles nearly cost the Longhorns their spot in the national semifinals. The Flower Mound native missed two crucial kicks in the Peach Bowl, including a potential game-winner in regulation. Over the last three games, Auburn has missed four field goals, raising serious concerns.
Sarkisian was tight-lipped about whether Auburn would remain the starter for the Cotton Bowl. With three other kickers on the roster, including junior Will Stone, who handles kickoffs, the Longhorns might consider a switch.
“There’s a psychological approach we’ve tried, along with the physical,” Sarkisian explained. “We’ll monitor things in pregame and make a decision.”
5. Starting Strong: The Key to Keeping Up
Playoff games might not be won in the first quarter, but they can definitely be lost.
Both Texas and Ohio State have proven capable of fast starts. In their quarterfinal win over Arizona State, the Longhorns scored two touchdowns on just three touches in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes racked up 35 total first-quarter points in their first two playoff games, including against top-ranked Oregon.
For Texas, matching Ohio State’s offensive pace early will be crucial. Falling behind could make a comeback nearly impossible against a team as disciplined and explosive as the Buckeyes.
“Hopefully, the ones we script tomorrow night work,” Sarkisian said of Texas’ opening plays.
The Final Word
This Cotton Bowl showdown isn’t just another game—it’s a chance for Texas to rewrite its story and punch a ticket to the national championship for the first time in over a decade. The odds may not be in their favor, but that’s exactly what makes college football so exhilarating.
Whether it’s Ewers channeling his inner hero, Barron locking down the unstoppable Smith, or Manning delivering a game-changing moment, the Longhorns have the talent to make this a classic. And while the road to victory won’t be easy, it’s the kind of challenge that defines a program’s legacy.
Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride under the bright lights of AT&T Stadium.
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