NFL Playoff Picture Heating Up: Thanksgiving Marks the Start of the True Season
Smart folks around the NFL will tell you that the regular season doesn’t truly begin until Thanksgiving. By then, the experimental phase is over—it’s time to zero in on what works, ditch what doesn’t, and make that final push toward the playoffs.
With Week 13 in full swing, the playoff race is as hot as ever, even as temperatures drop. The stakes are high, and every game counts. Let’s break down where things stand as the holiday weekend wraps up, updated to the latest results. All playoff probabilities come courtesy of The Athletic’s expert model.
AFC Playoff Picture: The Powerhouses and Contenders
1. Kansas City Chiefs (11–1)
- Playoff Probability: 100%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 4
The Chiefs, reigning supreme in the AFC West, have clinched a playoff spot following their Friday win. A victory against the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday will officially secure the division title. Kansas City continues to set the standard, boasting a balanced attack and an unwavering focus on postseason glory.
2. Buffalo Bills (9–2)
- Playoff Probability: 99%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 1
Buffalo has its sights set on the AFC East crown, which it can clinch with a win against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. With an explosive offense and solid defense, the Bills are a force to be reckoned with as the playoffs loom.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9–3)
- Playoff Probability: 98%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
The Steelers are hitting their stride at the right time. Their dismantling of the Bengals was nothing short of spectacular, racking up over 500 yards of offense and 44 points. Pittsburgh looks poised for a deep playoff run if they can maintain this momentum.
4. Houston Texans (8–5)
- Playoff Probability: 97%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 2
Despite a scare against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans pulled out a win and now enjoy a much-needed bye week. Houston is in great shape, leading the AFC South and showing resilience when it counts most.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8–4)
- Playoff Probability: 94%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 4
The Chargers delivered a clutch win over the Atlanta Falcons despite playing on short rest and traveling cross-country. Their defense shined, sealing the game with a pick-six. With four challenging opponents left, they’ll need every ounce of that grit moving forward.
6. Baltimore Ravens (8–5)
- Playoff Probability: 97%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 4
Baltimore’s playoff hopes took a slight hit after losing to the Eagles. Saquon Barkley ran wild, and the Ravens couldn’t overcome a tough Philly defense. However, with their talent and experience, they remain a solid contender in the AFC North.
7. Denver Broncos (7–5)
- Playoff Probability: 69%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 2
The Broncos are riding a two-game win streak and look to make it three against the Cleveland Browns on Monday night. Denver’s confidence is growing, and a win could further solidify their playoff aspirations.
AFC Wildcard Race: Who’s Still in the Hunt?
- Indianapolis Colts (6–7): A last-minute win over the Patriots keeps their playoff hopes alive.
- Miami Dolphins (5–7): A tough loss in Green Bay snapped their streak, leaving them with an uphill battle.
- Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): Technically still in the hunt, but realistically out of contention.
NFC Playoff Picture: Dominance and Drama
1. Detroit Lions (11–1)
- Playoff Probability: 99%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
The Lions continue to roar, solidifying their NFC North lead with a Thanksgiving win over the Bears. They’re also eyeing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, staying just ahead of the Vikings and Eagles.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10–2)
- Playoff Probability: 99%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
The Eagles showcased their dominance in a marquee win against the Ravens. With Barkley tearing up the field and the defense locking opponents down, Philly is a top contender for the NFC crown.
3. Seattle Seahawks (7–5)
- Playoff Probability: 37%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
Seattle narrowly escaped disaster against the Jets, overcoming special teams mishaps to pull off a win. Geno Smith’s steady performance keeps them atop the NFC West—for now.
4. Atlanta Falcons (6–6)
- Playoff Probability: 62%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
The Falcons had a rough outing against the Chargers, with Cousins throwing four costly interceptions. They remain tied with the Buccaneers in the NFC South, setting up a thrilling finish.
5. Minnesota Vikings (10–2)
- Playoff Probability: 99%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 5
The Vikings are on a tear, winning nail-biters and blowing past expectations. A last-minute comeback against the Cardinals highlights their resilience.
6. Green Bay Packers (9–3)
- Playoff Probability: 97%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 3
The Packers are surging, with their latest win coming in chilly conditions against the Dolphins. Can they catch the Lions in the NFC North? Stay tuned.
7. Washington Commanders (8–5)
- Playoff Probability: 71%
- Remaining Opponents Above .500: 2
After enduring a three-game skid, the Commanders roared back with a dominant win over the Titans. Their playoff hopes remain very much alive.
NFC Wildcard Race: Who’s Still in the Hunt?
- Arizona Cardinals (6–5): Slipped out of the playoff picture but can rebound with a win in Minnesota.
- Los Angeles Rams (5–6): A loss to the Eagles stings, and they’ll need a win over the Saints to stay afloat.
- San Francisco 49ers (5–6): A tough task awaits in Buffalo after being dismantled by the Packers.
Final Thoughts
As Week 13 unfolds, the playoff picture becomes clearer but no less thrilling. Teams are solidifying their spots, others are clinging to hope, and every snap matters. From dominant powerhouses like the Chiefs and Lions to scrappy contenders like the Seahawks and Commanders, the drama is far from over.
Buckle up—December football is here, and it promises to deliver unforgettable moments.
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