The 2026 NBA Playoffs have been packed with drama, but for a handful of teams sitting at home, the biggest moment of the offseason is about to arrive. On May 10, the NBA Draft Lottery will officially decide which franchises get a shot at changing their future overnight.
Even with all the recent talk about changing lottery rules to stop teams from tanking, nothing changes until next season. That means the current system stays in place for now, with the league’s worst teams holding the best odds to land the top picks.
And as history keeps proving, one lucky bounce can completely reshape a franchise.
Last year was the perfect example. The Dallas Mavericks somehow grabbed the No. 1 pick with only a 1.8% chance, landing Cooper Flagg after the shocking Luka Dončić trade shook the league. Now, several teams are hoping for their own miracle moment.
Here are the five franchises with the most riding on the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery.
Indiana Pacers
Nobody may be sweating harder on lottery night than the Indiana Pacers.
After Tyrese Haliburton suffered a torn Achilles during Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, Indiana’s season quickly spiraled into a rough rebuilding year. The Pacers finished with a brutal 19-63 record while basically waiting for Haliburton’s return next season.
But things got risky at the trade deadline.
Indiana traded its 2026 first-round pick for Clippers center Ivica Zubac, but the pick comes with complicated protections:
- Indiana keeps the pick if it lands top four
- They also keep it if it falls outside the top 10
- Anywhere between 5-10? The Clippers get it
That means the Pacers could either:
- Add an elite young superstar to pair with Haliburton
- Or walk away from a terrible season with absolutely nothing
Indiana owns a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, making this one of the wildest boom-or-bust lottery situations in years.
Los Angeles Clippers
On the flip side, the Clippers are watching Indiana’s lottery position very closely.
L.A. made a major pivot this season after trading James Harden for Darius Garland, signaling a shift toward the future. Because of previous trades involving Paul George, the Clippers still don’t fully control their own draft future for several years.
That makes this Pacers pick incredibly valuable.
If the ping-pong balls fall the right way, Los Angeles could suddenly land a franchise-changing young player in a loaded draft class. And honestly, the team needs it.
Kawhi Leonard is no longer in his prime, and the Clippers still lack a clear long-term direction. Landing a top prospect could finally give the organization a fresh foundation to build around.
Without it? The franchise may still be stuck searching for answers.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Somehow, the rich could get even richer.
The Thunder already won a championship last season and might grab another one this June. Yet thanks to the never-ending benefits of the Paul George trade, Oklahoma City also owns the Clippers’ 2026 first-round pick.
That selection is expected to land around picks 12-14, but there’s still a small chance things get crazy.
And if OKC somehow jumps to No. 1?
That would be terrifying for the rest of the NBA.
The Thunder could add another elite prospect like AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, building a dynasty-level roster for years to come.
Even if they don’t use the pick themselves, GM Sam Presti could flip it in another blockbuster trade and continue stacking assets like he always does.
Either way, Oklahoma City stays in a win-win situation.
Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks may quietly be in one of the best positions in the league.
Thanks to a smart trade made last summer, Atlanta owns the Pelicans’ 2026 first-round pick after New Orleans finished with the seventh-worst record in basketball.
That gives the Hawks a real shot at landing another top-tier player without even tanking themselves.
The odds:
- Strong chance at a mid-lottery pick
- 6.8% chance at No. 1 overall
That may not sound huge, but it could completely change the franchise.
Atlanta already has a promising young core featuring:
- Jalen Johnson
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker
- Dyson Daniels
Now imagine adding another elite talent to that group.
It’s the same kind of setup Boston used years ago when the Celtics built around Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum using Brooklyn’s draft picks while still competing in the playoffs.
If things break perfectly on Sunday, the Hawks could become the next rising power in the Eastern Conference.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks enter the lottery with pressure, uncertainty, and plenty of chaos.
Milwaukee collapsed to a 32-50 record this season while Giannis Antetokounmpo publicly clashed with the organization. Whether he eventually stays or leaves, the roster clearly needs major help.
The problem?
The Bucks are running low on assets after years of aggressive win-now moves.
That makes this lottery absolutely critical.
But Milwaukee’s situation is also incredibly confusing because of its pick swap arrangement with Atlanta.
Here’s the simple version:
- The Hawks own the right to swap picks with Milwaukee
- Milwaukee cannot end up with a better lottery pick than Atlanta’s New Orleans selection
- No matter what happens, the Bucks are guaranteed a lottery pick
So while Milwaukee fans may dream about the No. 1 pick, the final outcome depends heavily on where New Orleans lands too.
Still, a high selection could completely reshape the offseason:
- It could help the Bucks rebuild around Giannis
- Or become a major trade asset if changes are coming
One lucky bounce might even influence whether the greatest player in modern Milwaukee sports history stays with the franchise long term.
Why This Lottery Feels Massive
This year’s draft lottery isn’t just about young talent. It’s about:
- Franchise direction
- Superstar futures
- Rebuilds vs. contention
- And possibly the next NBA dynasty
One ping-pong ball can change everything in the NBA. And on May 10, several teams are hoping their future finally swings in the right direction.
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