At a recent debate, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faced some sharp criticism from a voter who expressed frustration about the current state of governance in Germany. The voter lamented that the government was unable to effectively govern, and instead, its ministers were bickering like children. Rather than dismiss the comment, Scholz surprised many by conceding the point. "The truth is: You are right," he acknowledged. “But what would be your solution? I mean, I’m asking for a friend.” This moment highlighted a growing sentiment of disillusionment among voters, as the political landscape in Germany, once admired for its effective governance, seems increasingly fractured.
The exchange, rather than igniting controversy, seemed to reinforce a prevailing understanding among the populace: political agreement is elusive, and action even more so. Recent electoral gains by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party only intensified the struggles of Scholz’s already divided government. With the AfD gaining traction in state elections, it’s clear that voters are seeking alternatives, even if those alternatives are rooted in populism.
Similarly, France is grappling with its own political paralysis. For decades, France and Germany were seen as the twin engines of the European Union. However, recent elections in June have left the French Parliament in disarray, divided among a multitude of parties, leading to a government that struggles to forge effective coalitions. President Emmanuel Macron has formed a center-right government, despite left-leaning parties winning the most seats in the National Assembly. This situation leaves Macron’s administration vulnerable to challenges from Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, particularly if it chooses to back a no-confidence vote or withhold support for the budget.
This fragmentation and polarization have severely limited the capacity of political leaders to govern effectively. The challenge of finding common ground on fundamental issues is exacerbated by the need for unwieldy coalitions that bring together parties from across the political spectrum. In the face of significant challenges, such as managing rising immigration numbers, addressing the war in Ukraine, and reviving stagnant economies, the ability of these governments to act decisively is in jeopardy.
Mujtaba Rahman, a senior director with the Eurasia Group consulting firm and a former EU official, succinctly captures the crux of the problem: “Leaders are not—and will not be—able to build majorities around a consensus for doing what’s needed.” The absence of decisive reforms to tackle the root causes of the populist surge—namely a weak economy and mass migration—reinforces a vicious cycle of political dysfunction. As a result, both the EU and its member governments are struggling to fulfill their commitments to voters, risking a decline in their competitive standing against powers like the U.S. and China.
In Germany, Scholz’s three-way coalition—comprising the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats—has managed to find common ground on some less urgent policies, such as legalizing marijuana and supporting gender self-identification. However, on more pressing matters, such as the housing crisis, infrastructure improvement, and crime reduction, consensus remains elusive. Trains are notoriously late, corporate taxes are among the highest in Europe, and infrastructure issues have reached a crisis point, highlighted by the recent collapse of a bridge in Dresden due to delayed repairs.
Meanwhile, Macron’s tenure has not been without its challenges. Despite promises to cut public spending, France’s deficit and debt have increased during his time in office. As voter dissatisfaction with mainstream politics grows, the political landscape has fragmented further, with seven significant parties now competing for influence. Notably, three of these parties exist on the political fringes, complicating coalition-building at both the federal and state levels. According to Professor Manfred Güllner, founder of Forsa, one of Germany’s largest polling agencies, the far-right AfD has emerged as the second-largest party in national polls, while in some eastern states, it has become the dominant political force.
This fragmentation has led to an increasing difficulty for traditional parties to form coherent coalitions, with rivals forced into complex arrangements designed to keep the AfD out of power. A new far-left party, BSW, which shares some pro-Russian and anti-NATO sentiments akin to the AfD, has also made significant strides in local elections, further muddying the political waters.
In the past, political systems in smaller nations like Sweden or the Netherlands have experienced similar dysfunction, but now the paralysis has become a structural characteristic of Europe’s largest political entities. Güllner emphasizes the absence of a plausible majority or uniting force in Germany’s political landscape, stating, “The prospect is hopeless.” This situation is compounded by historical struggles within the German government to implement significant changes, a challenge that predates Scholz but has intensified under his leadership.
During Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure, her governments were often buoyed by stable economic growth and a relatively secure geopolitical environment. In contrast, the current environment is rife with internal and external shocks that have exposed the government’s limitations in policy implementation. Professor Clemens Fuest, head of the Munich-based Ifo Institute, notes that the inability to enact effective policies now plagues Germany more than ever.
On the other side of the Channel, Macron's rise to the presidency was marked by his establishment of a new political party, positioning himself as a beacon of hope for European integration and reform. While he enjoyed some successes, such as reducing unemployment and attracting foreign investment, after two terms, he has become emblematic of the broader dysfunctionality facing both France and the EU. Manuel Valls, a former French prime minister, points out that the French state is undergoing a crisis of legitimacy, with citizens increasingly demanding more from their government.
“Our institutions and our democracy will be put to the test,” Valls warns, “We risk experiencing a chaotic situation when the country would need clear direction.” This uncertainty is especially troubling given the ongoing war in Ukraine, which presents urgent challenges for Europe. Despite the EU’s commitment to support Ukraine, it has failed to deliver on promises, including the pledge to send one million shells to Kyiv. The military stockpiles of France, Germany, and other nations are rapidly depleting, and there is little indication of the promised enhancements to their defense capabilities. Ivan Krastev, a fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, voices his concerns, stating, “What is happening in Europe with military production, even at a time of a perceived existential threat from Russia, is a joke.” The absence of a governing majority capable of addressing these key challenges has created a vacuum in state legitimacy.
In contrast, some Eastern European countries have managed to achieve more success through strong majorities. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, for instance, has often clashed with EU leaders but has built what he calls an “illiberal state,” attracting foreign investment by providing tax incentives and collaborating with countries like China. This divergence highlights the uneven political landscape across Europe.
In a bid to address the migrant crisis and bolster relations with Eastern European nations, Scholz and Macron have both recently engaged with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. However, Vucic has faced criticism from diplomats and democracy watchdogs for his autocratic tendencies. Despite this, European leaders have sought his assistance in managing migration routes, as Vucic has managed to reduce the influx of migrants into upstream nations like Germany.
Additionally, there is keen interest in Serbia’s substantial lithium reserves, a crucial resource for Europe’s transition away from fossil fuels. Although lithium is found in Germany and across the EU, environmental regulations have hindered its extraction. A senior German official pointedly remarked, “He might be lightly autocratic, but the Serbian president can actually dig out the lithium if he wants to.”
This statement encapsulates the broader dilemmas facing European leaders: navigating the delicate balance between governance and the urgent need for practical solutions. As political fragmentation continues to challenge traditional governance structures, the path forward remains uncertain, marked by the need for clear direction and decisive action. Without effective leadership, Europe risks falling further into dysfunctionality, unable to respond to the pressing challenges of our time.
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