Germany’s political landscape is shaking up, and Sunday’s state elections in the eastern regions of Thuringia and Saxony could be a game-changer. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is polling strong, with around 30% in Thuringia and neck-and-neck with the conservatives at 30-32% in Saxony. If these numbers hold, the AfD could make history as the first far-right party to win the most seats in a German state parliament since World War Two. However, the path to actual governance looks rocky. Despite their lead, the AfD is unlikely to form a state government as they fall short of a majority, and other parties have steadfastly refused to collaborate with them.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition is facing a tough time, with predictions of a significant setback just a year before federal elections. The discontent is real, and all three parties in Scholz's federal coalition—the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats—are seen as losing ground in these elections. There’s frustration over the federal government, partly because it’s a coalition of ideologically diverse parties that often clash. Analysts warn that a poor performance in the East could intensify these tensions, although they believe the coalition is unlikely to disband before the next federal election in September 2025.
Adding to the mix is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new populist party that shares anti-migration, eurosceptic, and Russia-friendly positions with the AfD. Named after its founder, a former communist, the BSW has seen a rapid rise since its creation in January. It’s projected to win between 12-20% of the vote, potentially placing it in a kingmaker position in both states. The BSW’s foreign policy stances, however, make it an unlikely partner for any of the mainstream parties at the national level.
There’s a palpable sense of frustration in the former East Germany, where concerns about the cost of living, the Ukraine war, and immigration are more pronounced than in the West. This divide is more than just political—it reflects deeper economic and social disparities that have persisted since reunification. Despite recent multi-billion euro investments in sectors like chipmaking and electric vehicles, these efforts haven’t been enough to win over locals who remain skeptical of Germany’s democratic structures and closer ties with the West.
Recent events have also stirred the pot. A deadly stabbing spree linked to Islamic State in Solingen, in western Germany, has heightened anxieties about immigration and sparked criticism of the government's handling of the issue. At a recent campaign event in Nordhausen, Thuringia, AfD leader Bjoern Hoecke, a polarizing figure with a controversial past, told supporters that "our freedoms are being increasingly restricted because people are being allowed into the country who don't fit in." Hoecke, a former history teacher, is no stranger to controversy—he’s been known for making provocative statements, including calling Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a "monument of shame."
For many voters, the AfD’s rise signals a desire for change, but it’s also a worrying sign of polarization. A strong showing for the AfD and the BSW complicates coalition-building efforts, and even if they win, other parties' refusal to work with them could lead to political deadlock. The results of these elections could very well be a political earthquake, as Wagenknecht herself suggested at a rally in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia.
This election highlights the stark East-West divide that still exists in Germany. Party allegiance is weaker in the East, and there’s a greater affinity for Russia along with skepticism about Germany’s democratic structures. The AfD and BSW are expected to capture around 40-50% of the vote in the two states, compared to 23-27.5% nationally, showcasing the ongoing regional disparities.
What’s at stake isn’t just who wins or loses—it’s about the broader implications for Germany’s political future. Will we see a shift in power dynamics, or will the establishment parties manage to hold their ground despite their current struggles? As voters head to the polls, there’s a clear message: the political status quo is being challenged, and the results could reshape the German political landscape in significant ways.
So, what’s next? As the polls close at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), all eyes will be on the exit surveys to see if the AfD can pull off a historic win. Will the far-right continue its ascent, or will the traditional parties find a way to regain their footing? The answers will have ripple effects far beyond these state elections, setting the stage for the national political battles ahead.
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