This Sunday, Israel faces a brewing political storm that could redefine its political landscape.
At the stroke of midnight on April 1st, Israel's government faces a critical deadline regarding its military draft policy. This deadline requires the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to send conscription notices to approximately 66,000 ultra-Orthodox men, previously exempted under a law granting special privileges to students at religious academies, or yeshivot.
While this may seem like an internal Israeli affair, the repercussions could resonate far beyond its borders, potentially reshaping the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's trajectory.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is deeply divided over the conscription issue. Netanyahu relies on ultra-Orthodox parties for his parliamentary majority; agreeing to mass conscription of yeshiva students could lead to their withdrawal of support. Conversely, acceding to the ultra-Orthodox demands could alienate key members of his right-wing Likud party, possibly prompting their defection.
Either scenario leads to the same outcome: the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition government and new elections, which current polls indicate Likud would lose by a significant margin. Netanyahu's defeat could pave the way for his centrist rival Benny Gantz to assume power. While their policies towards the conflict may align in some areas, critical differences, particularly regarding Gaza's future and a Palestinian state, could emerge.
Despite the potential for change, uncertainty looms. Netanyahu is scrambling to find a solution to avert the draft crisis, and even if elections are triggered, there's no guarantee of substantial policy shifts under a Gantz administration.
However, this crisis poses a grave threat to Netanyahu's tenure, potentially surpassing any previous political challenges. As Dahlia Scheindlin, a leading Israeli pollster, notes, "Governments in Israel have fallen over this very issue," highlighting the gravity of the situation.
Given that Netanyahu's government is a major obstacle to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the outcome of this crisis holds significant implications.
The Complex Issue of Ultra-Orthodox Conscription
In Israel's multi-party system, no single party holds a majority in the Knesset. Netanyahu's Likud party, while the largest, relies on smaller parties for its majority, including extreme nationalist and ultra-Orthodox factions.
The ultra-Orthodox parties prioritize maintaining and expanding special rights for their community, with the exemption from military service for yeshiva students being a key issue. This exemption is rooted in the belief that studying scripture is paramount, leading many ultra-Orthodox men to forgo paid work, relying instead on government support.
However, this exemption has long been contentious, viewed by many Israelis as unfair. Successive governments have tried to find a balance, but the Supreme Court has consistently ruled these attempts as favoring the ultra-Orthodox unfairly. The Court has set an April 1 deadline for conscription to begin, adding pressure to an already fraught political situation.
Potential Outcomes and Implications
Experts outline three possible scenarios for the crisis:
1. Failure to Act: If Netanyahu fails to address the issue, conscription notices will be sent, leading the ultra-Orthodox parties to withdraw from the government, triggering elections.
2. Policy Framework: If Netanyahu proposes a framework that satisfies the ultra-Orthodox but alienates key Likud members, his government could collapse, leading to elections.
3. Temporary Solution: Netanyahu could secure an extension from the Supreme Court, buying time to find a legislative solution. However, this path is fraught with challenges, and time is running out.
If Netanyahu's government falls, elections would follow, potentially bringing Gantz to power. Unlike Netanyahu, Gantz might adopt a more moderate approach, which could impact the conflict's resolution. His coalition partners would likely range from mainstream right to left, possibly leading to a shift in policy towards Gaza and a Palestinian state.
While predicting the future is difficult, the possibility of change exists if Netanyahu's government falls. This could open the door to a new approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, offering a glimmer of hope for peace and justice in the region.
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