Japan’s Ruling Coalition Faces Major Setback as Election Exit Polls Signal Possible Loss of Majority

Japan’s Ruling Coalition Faces a Tough Blow as Election Exit Polls Signal Loss of Majority

Japan’s political landscape looks like it’s about to shift dramatically. Exit polls from a crucial election held on Sunday suggest that the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is on track to lose its majority in the upper house of parliament. This isn’t just any election — it’s a key moment that could shake the foundations of Japan’s government, with Ishiba now under intense political pressure.

What’s at Stake?

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The ruling coalition, made up of Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito, needed at least 50 out of 248 seats in the upper chamber to maintain control. The exit polls from NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster, paint a grim picture: the coalition is projected to win somewhere between 32 and 51 seats, making it uncertain whether they’ll even hold on to a slim majority.

To put this in perspective, if the coalition ends up with fewer than 46 seats, it would be their worst performance since the alliance formed in 1999. Half of the 248 seats were up for grabs during Sunday’s election, with those elected serving six-year terms, meaning this vote is a big deal for the country’s legislative future.

Voter Mood: Frustration and Discontent

The election happened against a backdrop of rising public frustration. Many Japanese voters are grappling with the reality of increasing living costs — and that includes some staples that hit home hard, like rice prices climbing higher than expected. Inflation, economic headwinds, and the looming threat of U.S. tariffs have left a bad taste in the mouths of many.

Ishiba and his coalition haven’t managed to inspire much confidence lately. The economic challenges, coupled with ongoing trade talks with the United States, have made voters uneasy. Political scandals surrounding the LDP over recent years haven’t helped either. These scandals have added fuel to the fire of dissatisfaction, making it harder for the coalition to hold steady.

A History of Political Change

The LDP has been the dominant force in Japanese politics for decades. Ishiba’s center-right party has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, although leadership changes within the party are frequent. Still, a loss in this election would be a major blow for Ishiba, who’s only been in office for less than a year.

It’s worth noting that the last three LDP premiers who lost their majority in the upper house quickly stepped down — all within two months. Analysts have been predicting that Ishiba might face a similar fate if this election results in a major loss. The pressure on him to resign is palpable, and the political drama could be just getting started.

Who’s Poised to Take Over?

If Ishiba steps down, it would open the door for several other high-profile LDP members to vie for leadership. Among the frontrunners are Sanae Takaichi, who came in second to Ishiba in last year’s general election; Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister; and Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of the iconic former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. A leadership shakeup like this would inevitably bring political instability at a delicate moment, especially with critical U.S.-Japan trade negotiations underway.

The Rise of the Sanseito Party

One of the more surprising developments in this election was the rise of a fringe right-leaning party called Sanseito. This small party drew conservative voters away from the ruling coalition by pushing a "Japanese First" agenda, emphasizing anti-immigration rhetoric that resonated with a segment of the electorate concerned about national identity and cultural preservation.

Sanseito first gained attention on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic, where it spread conspiracy theories about vaccinations and claims of a secret global elite pulling strings behind the scenes. Its nativist message struck a chord in the run-up to the election, especially as immigration and foreign resident policies became hot topics across many campaigns.

According to the NHK exit polls, Sanseito is set to win around seven seats — a small number, but significant enough to impact the political balance.

Japan’s Changing Demographics and Economic Pressures

Japan is famous worldwide for its isolationist culture and strict immigration policies, but recent years have seen an unprecedented surge in tourists and foreign residents. While this influx has helped boost certain sectors of the economy, it’s also pushed prices higher for everyday Japanese citizens.

This economic squeeze, combined with cultural concerns about the growing number of foreigners in the country, has stirred unease among parts of the population. Some feel that foreigners are unfairly benefiting from Japan’s resources and opportunities, further stoking nationalist sentiments that parties like Sanseito have capitalized on.

Ishiba’s Tough Stance on Immigration Issues

Just last week, Ishiba announced a new task force aimed at addressing what he described as "crimes or nuisance behaviors committed by some foreign nationals." This includes concerns about immigration policy enforcement, land acquisitions by foreigners, and unpaid social insurance contributions.

This move seems directly targeted at calming the fears of voters uneasy about immigration, but it also highlights the political tightrope Ishiba must walk — balancing economic realities with rising nationalist pressures.

Key Takeaways:

• Ruling Coalition at Risk: The coalition needs 50 seats to hold the majority but is projected to get between 32 and 51.

• Worst Result Since 1999: Losing fewer than 46 seats would mark their worst showing in over two decades.

• Voter Frustration: Inflation, rising costs (especially rice), economic uncertainty, and political scandals weigh heavily.

• Sanseito’s Rise: The fringe “Japanese First” party appeals to nationalist and anti-immigration sentiments, poised to win seven seats.

• Leadership Shakeup Likely: Ishiba may be forced to resign, opening the door for other LDP contenders.

• Trade Negotiations at Risk: Political instability could impact critical U.S.-Japan trade talks.

• Demographic Tensions: Increased foreign residents and tourists drive price surges and cultural anxiety.

• Ishiba’s Task Force: A controversial crackdown on foreign nationals aimed at addressing public concerns.