Recent Performance and Standings
The Mets have been on a tear recently, surging back into the National League Wild Card race. They have won 8 of their last 9 games and an impressive 13 of their last 16. In their latest game, they crushed the Cubs 11-1, scoring 10 runs off Chicago's LHP Shota Imanaga. This hot streak has ignited their playoff hopes and bolstered their confidence as they continue their campaign.
On the flip side, the Cubs have struggled mightily. They have a dismal 9-18 record over their last 27 games and are 3-4 on their current homestand, which concludes on Sunday. Their pitching staff has shown signs of wear and tear, with their ERA slipping to 15th in the league at 3.96.
Pitching Matchup
Projected Starters:
- Mets: RHP Tylor Megill (2-3, 3.52 ERA) is set to make his 7th start of the season. He sports a 1.30 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9, and 10.9 K/9 over 30 2/3 innings. In his last outing, he secured a win with a 5-inning, 2 earned run performance against the San Diego Padres.
- Cubs: RHP Jameson Taillon (3-3, 3.08 ERA) will make his 12th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, and 6.3 K/9 through 61 1/3 innings. His last game saw him pitch 6 innings, giving up 2 earned runs in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Previous Encounters:
- Megill has only faced the Cubs once in his career, resulting in a loss where he allowed 4 earned runs over 3 2/3 innings on May 23, 2023.
- Taillon has fared better against the Mets, holding a 3-0 record with a 2.10 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last 5 starts against them, striking out 21 in 34 1/3 innings.
Betting Lines and Odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook, the odds are:
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -105 | Cubs -115
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Cubs -1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 12 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Moneyline: The Mets' offense has been on fire, ranking 2nd in weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) in June and scoring 46 runs in their last 5 games, averaging 9.2 runs per game. Conversely, the Cubs' bats have cooled off, managing just 41 runs over their last 13 games, an average of 3.2 runs per game.
Despite Taillon's solid season, his pitch-to-contact approach leaves little room for error, and his stats suggest he may be due for some regression. Given the Mets' current form, betting on the Mets at -105 is a sound choice.
Run Line/Against the Spread: While the game promises to be closely contested, the value isn't quite there for the run line bet. The Mets are expected to win, but with a +1.5 spread carrying steep odds of -200, it's advisable to pass on this option.
Over/Under: Both teams have been scoring differently, with the Mets showcasing a powerful offense while the Cubs have struggled to put runs on the board. Megill has a tendency to give up home runs on the road (1.8 HR/9), but the Cubs' lower home run and runs per game stats, coupled with the favorable wind conditions blowing out at 18 mph to straightaway center, suggest a high-scoring potential. However, with the line set at 12, it's slightly inflated. A bet on the UNDER at -115 seems prudent, anticipating a closer, lower-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction
Mets 6, Cubs 4
With these insights and predictions, it's clear that the Mets' current momentum and offensive prowess make them a strong pick for Saturday's matchup against the Cubs. Keep an eye on the weather and final lineup announcements as game time approaches to make any necessary adjustments to your betting strategy. Enjoy the game and good luck!
Login