On October 7, 2023, the image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as "Mister Security" took a significant hit, marking a catastrophic day that was dubbed the deadliest for Jews since the Holocaust. The stark reality was evident: both the Jewish homeland and its leader had failed to protect their people during one of the darkest chapters in their history. Questions swirled around Netanyahu's ability to survive this political storm and maintain his grip on power.
A Shift in Political Landscape
In the wake of the unprecedented attacks by Hamas, opinion polls reflected a grim picture for Netanyahu and his Likud party. After forming an extremist coalition government in November 2022, riding high on the 32 seats they secured in the Knesset, polls suggested a dramatic decline. Were elections held immediately after the Hamas attack, Likud would likely have plummeted to just 17 seats. This stark reduction put the government’s long-term survival in serious jeopardy.
However, fast forward nearly a year, and Netanyahu has orchestrated an impressive turnaround. Although Likud would still struggle to form a government if elections were held today, recent military campaigns—marked by airstrikes in Lebanon and targeted assassinations across the Middle East—have catapulted Netanyahu's political fortunes. His popularity surged, and recent polling from Israel's Channel 12 indicated that Likud would now secure 25 seats, reclaiming its status as the largest party in the Knesset.
Veteran pollster Dahlia Scheindlin pointed out that Netanyahu's revival could largely be attributed to the ongoing regional confrontations. “The regional confrontations are good for Netanyahu,” she explained, noting that these conflicts have played a pivotal role in restoring the sense of agency and strength that was shattered by the October 7 attack.
A Complex Military Campaign
The military operations carried out by Israel have garnered domestic support, though they raise complex questions surrounding long-term occupation, relations with Palestinians, and the plight of hostages still held by Hamas. Currently, 101 hostages are being held in Gaza, creating an emotional backdrop against which Netanyahu operates.
While the war in Gaza presents a complicated narrative, Israel's military actions elsewhere are perceived more clearly. “It’s clear enemies of Israel,” Scheindlin stated, referring to the targets of Israel's military operations, which eliminate any ambiguity around the moral questions associated with occupation.
This aggressive military campaign began in earnest in April, highlighted by an airstrike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria that took out a top commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Though Israel refrained from claiming responsibility, it was widely understood that they were behind the strike. This was quickly followed by a deadly airstrike in Beirut in July, which eliminated Fu’ad Shukr, a high-ranking Hezbollah official, and another explosion in Tehran that targeted Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
In a shocking escalation, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel on October 8, expressing solidarity with Hamas. This led to a rapid escalation in violence, resulting in an intense Israeli bombing campaign targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure. The death toll in Lebanon has soared, with over 1,000 lives lost and around 20% of the Lebanese population—approximately 1 million people—forced to evacuate their homes.
Political Machinations Amidst Conflict
Amidst the backdrop of conflict, Netanyahu has faced intense scrutiny from the families of hostages in Gaza, who accuse him of prioritizing his political survival over the national interest. Nevertheless, his actions suggest a focus on domestic political strategies even as Israel engages in conflicts across multiple fronts.
In a notable political maneuver, Netanyahu appointed former rival Gideon Sa’ar as a minister without portfolio, a move largely viewed as a political strategy rather than a functional appointment. “When I ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, we all knew that an entire nation was behind this decision,” Netanyahu declared alongside Sa’ar, emphasizing the need for unity during such trying times.
Initially, Netanyahu had intended to replace his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, with Sa’ar, but that plan faced backlash from national security veterans. With tensions escalating in Lebanon, Netanyahu chose to recalibrate his approach.
Strategic Alliances and Political Calculations
Political strategist Nadav Shtrauchler, who has closely collaborated with Netanyahu, highlighted three primary reasons behind bringing Sa’ar into the government. Firstly, Sa’ar, a seasoned right-wing politician, could provide Netanyahu with leverage over far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has a history of inciting terrorism.
Secondly, Sa’ar's connections with ultra-Orthodox parties could serve as a buffer for Netanyahu against these factions, which hold the power to destabilize his government. These parties aim to pass legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, a move that could undermine Netanyahu’s coalition.
Finally, as the war with Hezbollah intensifies, bolstering broader political support is crucial for Netanyahu as he prepares for the possibility of a ground invasion.
It’s difficult to determine how much political strategy influences Netanyahu’s military decisions, but restoring stability for civilians in northern Israel is undoubtedly a pressing concern. Scheindlin expressed that after a year marked by trauma and uncertainty, a decisive response could offer Israelis a sense of catharsis and closure.
Opposition and Popular Support
Netanyahu's most significant political rival, Benny Gantz, a former military leader and head of the Israeli Defense Forces, has also supported the escalating military actions in the region. Gantz's party has consistently polled second in recent surveys, indicating that Netanyahu’s approach has effectively neutralized opposition.
On Sunday, Gantz publicly praised the political leadership for its decisions regarding the military actions in Lebanon, stating, “Better late than never.” This acknowledgment underscores how Netanyahu has managed to align a significant portion of the political landscape behind his military strategies, further solidifying his position.
Despite these developments, a pervasive sense of depression looms over Israel, even amid fleeting moments of euphoria following military successes. Scheindlin remarked, “There’s no real joy in Israel now.” While the assassination of Hezbollah leaders might elicit some satisfaction, the shadow of ongoing conflict and the fate of hostages continues to cast a somber pall over the nation.
Looking Ahead
As the region remains volatile, Netanyahu's political maneuvering and military strategies seem to be intertwined in a complex web of survival and dominance. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining not only his political fate but also the broader implications for Israel and its neighbors.
As Israelis grapple with the harsh realities of conflict and the psychological toll it exacts, one thing is clear: the quest for security and stability remains at the forefront of the national consciousness. The challenge lies in navigating the delicate balance between political aspirations and the pressing needs of a nation yearning for peace amidst turmoil.
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