Poland’s Presidential Showdown: Trzaskowski and Nawrocki Head to a Nail-Biting Runoff

Poland’s Presidential Race Heats Up: Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki Head to a Nail-Biting Runoff

Poland’s presidential election just delivered a dramatic twist, setting the stage for a high-stakes runoff showdown between two very different candidates — liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki. According to exit polls released right after the polls closed, Trzaskowski narrowly led with 30.8% of the vote, while Nawrocki was close behind at 29.1%. But since neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold, Poland’s next president will be decided in a tense second-round vote on June 1.

What the Numbers Tell Us

The election featured a crowded field of 13 candidates, yet none secured an outright majority. This fragmented vote forced a runoff — a scenario that could reshape the country's political future in unexpected ways.

Before election day, many polls had predicted Trzaskowski would pull ahead by 4-6 points, but the actual margin was much tighter, leaving the contest wide open. This narrow lead means both candidates now have two weeks to rally support from voters who backed others in the first round.

Who Are These Two Leading Candidates?

Rafal Trzaskowski is no stranger to Poland’s political scene. As Warsaw’s mayor and deputy leader of the centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, he has positioned himself as a champion of liberal values and progressive reforms. During his campaign, Trzaskowski promised to work closely with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition to push for liberalizing Poland’s strict abortion laws and accelerate judiciary reforms — two hot-button issues that have deeply divided the nation.

At a rally in Sandomierz, southern Poland, Trzaskowski confidently told his supporters, “We’re going to win.” But he also acknowledged the tough road ahead, emphasizing the “great determination” and hard work needed to secure victory in the runoff. “I’m convinced that all Poland will win,” he added — signaling his belief that a win would benefit the entire country, not just his base.

The Conservative Challenger: Karol Nawrocki

On the flip side, Karol Nawrocki is a relative newcomer on the national stage but has gained momentum as the conservative candidate backed by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. A historian by profession, Nawrocki’s rise surprised many political observers, given his initial low profile. Yet PiS is known for its formidable voter mobilization efforts, which could prove decisive in the runoff.

Nawrocki has rallied conservative and far-right voters by positioning himself as the defender of Poland’s traditional values and Catholic identity. At a rally in Gdansk, he made a strong plea to supporters of two far-right candidates — Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, who together took over 20% of the vote — urging them to unite and “save Poland” from the growing influence of Tusk and his allies.

The Far-Right Factor: A Wildcard in the Runoff

Speaking of the far-right, the surprisingly strong results of candidates Slawomir Mentzen (15.4%) and Grzegorz Braun (6.2%) have added a new twist to the election dynamics. Mentzen, a young and anti-establishment candidate from the Confederation party, has built a growing base of mainly young voters who are skeptical of the two main political camps. Braun, on the other hand, is a highly controversial figure known for his extreme views.

Braun made headlines recently for igniting outrage among liberal Poles — notably when he extinguished candles on a Jewish menorah during a parliamentary Hanukkah ceremony, calling the festival “satanic.” He also sparked major controversy by claiming in a presidential debate that “Jews have far too much say in Polish affairs.” His shocking rhetoric has alienated many voters but energized a hardline fringe.

What Happens Next?

The big question now: who will Mentzen and Braun’s supporters back in the runoff — if anyone?

• Many young far-right voters lean toward Nawrocki for his strong Catholic, family-oriented stance, but they’re wary of PiS’s left-leaning economic policies like generous state benefits.

• Some of Mentzen’s base may refuse to support either candidate, frustrated with the political establishment altogether.

• On the other side, Trzaskowski will need to attract not only his Civic Platform base but also voters from the Left (Magdalena Biejat) and the conservative Third Way party (Szymon Holownia), his coalition partners.

This delicate balancing act means both candidates will have to campaign hard to expand beyond their core supporters.

The Power of the Polish Presidency: Why It Matters

While Poland’s president traditionally holds largely ceremonial powers, the office carries significant influence through veto rights over government legislation. This power means the president can effectively block or delay laws passed by the ruling coalition.

Currently, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition lacks the parliamentary majority to override a presidential veto. President Andrzej Duda, a conservative aligned with PiS, has already used this veto power multiple times to block key government initiatives. If Trzaskowski wins, he would remove this major roadblock — but if Nawrocki takes the office, he might prove even tougher than Duda in opposing Tusk’s agenda.

The Broader Political Context

Tusk himself has faced a frustrating political landscape. Many of his campaign promises remain unfulfilled due to a combination of presidential vetoes and internal coalition disagreements on divisive topics like abortion and civil partnerships. This fragmented political environment has made governing a real challenge.

Trzaskowski’s potential victory is seen by many liberals as a chance to push Poland toward more progressive policies, especially in socially sensitive areas. But conservatives warn that Nawrocki’s election would defend traditional Polish values and resist what they call “left-wing overreach.”

Key Takeaways:

• Narrow lead: Trzaskowski leads by just 1.7 percentage points in the exit poll.

• Runoff required: Neither candidate hit 50%, so June 1 will decide Poland’s next president.

• Far-right impact: Mentzen and Braun’s combined 21.6% could swing the runoff.

• Presidential veto: Whoever wins could control crucial legislative veto powers.

• Polarized electorate: The country remains deeply divided between liberal reforms and conservative tradition.

What To Watch For

• How effectively will Trzaskowski and Nawrocki court the far-right and centrist voters in the next two weeks?

• Will voter turnout spike in the runoff compared to the first round?

• Could unexpected alliances or shifts in public opinion alter the outcome?

• How will the international community respond to Poland’s political direction after the runoff?

In summary, Poland’s presidential election has set up a gripping face-off that will shape the country’s political and social future. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki face uphill battles — and the voters who turned out for third and fourth-place candidates hold the keys to the final result.

The next two weeks will be critical. Expect intense campaigning, strategic appeals, and perhaps some surprises before Poland’s next president is crowned.