In a shocking and coordinated strike on September 17, militants infiltrated Mali's capital, Bamako, just before the early dawn prayers. These jihadis unleashed a brutal assault on an elite police training academy, tragically taking the lives of dozens of students. But they didn’t stop there; they stormed Bamako’s airport, setting the presidential jet ablaze. This audacious attack marked the most brazen display of violence in a Sahelian capital since 2016, underscoring the escalating threat from jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The Sahel Crisis: A Hidden Conflict
The Sahel region—a vast expanse of arid land stretching across sub-Saharan Africa—has been in turmoil for years. This area, encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has been plagued by an insurgency that has claimed thousands of civilian lives and displaced millions. Despite its severity, the conflict often fades into the shadows, overshadowed by wars in places like Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan. Yet, the violence in the Sahel is a significant contributor to rising migration toward Europe, especially at a time when far-right parties across Europe are tightening their borders and ramping up anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Recent data from the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM) reveals alarming trends in migration. This year, the most significant increase in migrant numbers has been along the route from West African coastal nations to Spain’s Canary Islands. In the first half of 2024, the number of migrants arriving in Europe from Sahel countries jumped 62%, soaring from 10,700 to 17,300. Experts attribute this surge to ongoing conflicts and the devastating effects of climate change, which have forced many to flee their homes in search of safety and stability.
A Growing Threat
The jihadist groups operating in the Sahel, many of whom have established a stronghold in the region, pose a serious threat not just locally but also globally. Fifteen diplomats and experts interviewed by Reuters expressed concern that these groups are transforming vast swathes of territory into training grounds and launchpads for further attacks on major cities like Bamako and even on Western targets. The violence has been particularly acute, especially since the military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which have replaced Western-backed governments with military juntas.
These juntas have turned to Russian military assistance, notably from the Wagner Group, as they’ve distanced themselves from the U.S. and French military support. However, despite this shift, they have continued to lose ground to jihadist forces. Caleb Weiss, an editor at the Long War Journal, raises a troubling possibility: “I don’t really see the regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina holding on forever. Eventually, one of them is going to fall or lose substantial territory.” The implications of such a collapse could be dire, potentially leading to the emergence of jihadi-controlled states in the Sahel.
The Reality of Military Withdrawal
The diminishing military presence of Western powers in the region compounds the challenges faced by Sahelian nations. Following a coup in Niger, the U.S. was ordered to vacate its significant drone base in Agadez, a strategic site used for monitoring jihadist movements. Without U.S. intelligence and air support, local governments are left vulnerable. Wassim Nasr, a senior research fellow at The Soufan Center, noted, “Nobody else filled the gap of providing effective air surveillance or air support, so the jihadis are roaming freely in those three countries.”
An analysis by Reuters of data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) group reveals a staggering increase in violent incidents involving jihadists in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—almost doubling since 2021. As of now, the average number of attacks per month has escalated to 224, up from 128 in the previous years.
The Human Cost of Conflict
The humanitarian crisis is profound, with conflict driving an increase in migration from the West African coast. Insa Moussa Ba Sane, the regional migration and displacement coordinator for the International Federation of the Red Cross, highlighted the growing number of women and families embarking on perilous journeys in search of safety. The interplay of armed conflict and climate change—manifested in both droughts and floods—compounds the struggles faced by these communities, resulting in more people fleeing to urban centers.
One particularly harrowing incident in Burkina Faso illustrates the grim reality. On August 24, jihadists linked to al-Qaeda massacred hundreds of civilians in the town of Barsalogho, located just a couple of hours from the capital, Ouagadougou. The Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Terrorism Index recently reported that Burkina Faso now leads the world in terrorism-related deaths, with fatalities soaring by 68% to 1,907 this year alone.
The Complex Web of Jihadist Activity
The Sahel’s jihadist landscape is intricate, with groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State vying for control and influence. A U.N. panel estimates that the al-Qaeda-aligned group JNIM commands between 5,000 to 6,000 fighters, while the Islamic State boasts 2,000 to 3,000 militants. These organizations have made their intentions clear—they aim to impose Islamic rule across the region.
Their methods of gaining control often involve a mix of coercion and the provision of essential services, including local governance through makeshift courts. Many rural communities, feeling abandoned by corrupt and ineffective central governments, are drawn to these groups. As one young man from Mali recounted, "Come with us. We will help you, we will give you money." However, he warns, “But you can’t trust them, because they kill your friends in front of you.” This stark reality underscores the moral dilemmas faced by individuals living in these regions.
A Divided European Response
The response from European governments is fraught with division. Southern European nations, directly affected by rising migration, often advocate for continued dialogue with the Sahelian juntas. However, there are strong objections rooted in concerns about human rights and the democratic process. Diplomats stress the need for the EU to remain engaged with the Sahel, as migration issues are unlikely to dissipate.
Even if a unified approach were to be developed, the harsh reality is that European nations lack the military resources and political relationships to make a significant impact. Many Sahelian governments are reluctant to accept Western involvement, which limits the influence that nations like the U.S. and those in Europe can exert over local extremist groups.
General Ron Smits, head of the Dutch Special Forces, succinctly summed up the situation: "We do not have any influence in those countries on extremist groups." The potential for the Sahel to morph into a new base for global jihad—similar to what was seen in Afghanistan or Libya—looms large. General Michael Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command, expressed concern, stating, "All these violent extremist organizations do have aspirations of attacking the United States."
The Path Forward
Despite the grim landscape, experts maintain that immediate and strategic action is crucial. Will Linder, a retired CIA officer, emphasized that the recent attacks in Bamako and Barsalogho showcase the failures of current security strategies in Mali and Burkina Faso. He argues that "the leadership of both countries really need new strategies for countering their jihadist insurgencies."
As the Sahel grapples with escalating violence and instability, the international community faces a crucial decision: will they step up their efforts to combat this growing threat, or will they continue to stand by as the situation deteriorates? The stakes are high, not just for the Sahel but for global security as a whole. The time to act is now, before the seeds of extremism take deeper root and lead to an even more chaotic future.
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