Negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have hit some major roadblocks. Despite weeks of talks, there's still no solid agreement in sight. However, the pressure from the international community is heating up.
One big indicator of this is the unexpected appearance of William Burns, the head honcho at the CIA, at the recent round of discussions in Cairo, courtesy of the Biden administration.
Hamas is sticking to its guns, publicly demanding a permanent ceasefire, a full pullout of Israeli troops, and the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza without any strings attached. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is adamant that the fighting won't stop until Hamas is crushed and the hostages they hold are released.
"There's definitely more American pressure on Israel, Egypt, and Qatar to squeeze Hamas. It's pretty obvious," noted Gershon Baskin, who played a role in negotiating the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011. "The fact that the CIA chief showed up, making it necessary for all top negotiators to be there, speaks volumes about increased American pressure."
But even with all this pressure, there's no deal in the bag just yet.
Israeli officials are showing some flexibility in the face of mounting frustration from key allies like the US. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently hinted that now might be the time for a ceasefire.
Any potential agreement is likely to involve a swap: Hamas would release some hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. This arrangement formed the basis of a previous ceasefire that temporarily halted hostilities in November. According to Israeli authorities, around 133 people are still held captive in Gaza, with at least 30 confirmed dead.
Under the latest US proposal, the first phase of a six-week ceasefire would involve Hamas releasing 40 live hostages. The focus would be on releasing female captives, soldiers, men over 50, and those with severe medical conditions. In return, Israel would release at least 700 Palestinians, including some serving life sentences for killing Israelis, a move that's stirred controversy in the past.
But Hamas claims it doesn't hold 40 people fitting this description, raising the possibility that more hostages have died than previously thought or that they're held by other groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
As negotiations drag on, pressure is mounting on Netanyahu from various quarters. Public support for the war remains strong, but there are increasing calls for him to prioritize securing the release of hostages. Families of the captives have staged large protests, accusing Netanyahu of putting politics before their loved ones' lives.
Within Netanyahu's coalition, tensions are rising. Far-right allies are pushing for a hardline approach, refusing to make concessions to Hamas and insisting on continuing the fight. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich believes escalating pressure on Hamas is the only solution, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has threatened to topple Netanyahu if he doesn't launch an offensive into Rafah, a Hamas stronghold in southern Gaza.
Internationally, there's widespread opposition to an offensive in Rafah, given the potential civilian casualties. Yet Netanyahu has hinted at plans for such an operation, fueling dissent within his government and party.
Hamas, on its part, hasn't formally responded to the latest proposal. While interested in an agreement to end aggression, it believes the offer falls short of its demands. The White House has described Hamas's response as disappointing.
Ultimately, the fate of any deal may rest with Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza. Communication with him is difficult, and negotiations could face hurdles over issues like prisoner releases and deportations.
Despite the urgent needs of Gaza's population, Hamas leaders may be banking on growing international criticism of Israel to secure favorable terms. But until both sides' decision-makers are ready to compromise, a resolution remains elusive.
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