Taiwan has been closely monitoring the Trump administration’s approach to China, and recent developments have sparked both surprise and reassurance. The revelation of a secret internal guidance memo, which explicitly prioritizes deterring a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, has shifted perspectives. Analysts and former officials in Taiwan, who had previously been concerned about Trump’s "America First" stance, now view this move as a significant military commitment by the U.S. government.
For years, Taiwan has relied on U.S. support to counter Beijing’s territorial ambitions. However, this support had seemed uncertain, particularly as Trump exhibited a willingness to engage with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, often referring to him as a "good friend." Like Ukraine, Taiwan exists in the shadow of a much larger neighbor, and the increasing military pressure from China has only intensified concerns. Beijing’s near-daily sorties of fighter jets and naval exercises near Taiwan’s territory have heightened tensions, making U.S. backing more critical than ever.
A major turning point came with the release of the memo, signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which was distributed across the Pentagon. It explicitly identifies China as "the Department’s sole pacing threat" and asserts that preventing a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan is a top strategic priority. This strong stance took many by surprise, particularly in Taiwan, where fears of being sidelined like Ukraine were growing.
William Chung, a researcher specializing in U.S.-China-Taiwan relations at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, remarked, "I am personally very surprised. This memo makes Taiwan the focus of U.S. global defense strategy as never before." This clear and forceful commitment from the U.S. military has reshaped the conversation around Taiwan’s security.
Taiwanese leadership has also taken proactive steps in response to these developments. President Lai Ching-te has adopted a tougher stance against China, cracking down on espionage and increasing defense spending to meet Trump’s demands for U.S. allies to bolster their own military capabilities. The pledge to raise defense spending to 3% of Taiwan’s GDP is a direct response to these expectations.
Moreover, Taiwan is strategically engaging in economic and military cooperation with the U.S. Deputy Defense Minister Alex Po recently attended a ceremony in South Carolina to mark Taiwan’s $8 billion purchase of F-16V fighter jets. Meanwhile, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy visited Taiwan to discuss trade deals, including Taipei’s interest in Alaskan liquefied natural gas.
Notably, Taiwan’s economic influence extends beyond military purchases. C.C. Wei, the head of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), recently announced a staggering $100 billion investment in U.S. chip manufacturing. This move aligns with the broader U.S. strategy to reduce dependence on China for critical semiconductor components, further strengthening the Taiwan-U.S. relationship.
However, despite these advancements, concerns persist. Some analysts warn that hardening the U.S. stance against China could have unintended consequences for Taiwan. Huang Kwei-bo, a diplomacy professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, cautioned that an aggressive U.S. position could provoke Beijing into escalating military activities. "If the People’s Liberation Army sees that the United States has such an attitude, it will in theory take measures to make the United States feel like it is not dealing with soft tofu but a piece of iron," Huang explained.
This could lead to an increase in military exercises near Taiwan or heightened PLA naval operations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. If tensions continue to escalate, Taiwan could find itself bearing the brunt of Beijing’s retaliatory measures, including economic sanctions, misinformation campaigns, and other gray-zone tactics designed to weaken Taiwan without triggering outright conflict.
Under both the Trump and Biden administrations, China has been consistently framed as the most significant threat to U.S. security. While Biden has publicly declared that the U.S. would support Taiwan in the event of an attack, his statements have tested the limits of Washington’s long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity.
In contrast, Hegseth’s memo goes beyond rhetorical commitments by detailing specific military strategies, including an increase in submarines, bombers, unmanned ships, and specialized Army and Marine Corps units to counter a Chinese invasion. This level of detail marks a shift in U.S. military planning, emphasizing Taiwan’s strategic importance like never before.
Jun-ji Shih, a former vice premier and advisory member of Taiwan’s National Security Council until 2020, emphasized the significance of this shift. "Taiwan has not seen such a clear statement from the United States until now," he said. This policy pivot signals that Taiwan remains a central focus of U.S. defense planning, reassuring Taiwanese officials who had feared a potential shift away from American support.
While the Taiwanese government has declined to officially comment on the memo, the overall response from analysts and policymakers suggests a growing confidence in the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense. However, the reality remains complex. As China continues to expand its military capabilities and assert its claims over Taiwan, the island must navigate an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
Ultimately, Taiwan’s approach appears to be a blend of military preparedness, economic engagement, and strategic diplomacy. By aligning itself closely with the U.S., investing in defense capabilities, and strengthening economic ties, Taiwan is signaling its resilience against Chinese pressure.
With a global semiconductor powerhouse in its arsenal and increased U.S. military support, Taiwan is positioning itself as a critical player in the ongoing U.S.-China power struggle. Whether this renewed commitment from Washington translates into long-term security remains to be seen, but for now, Taiwan is reassured that it is not being abandoned on the world stage.
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