When President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, it wasn’t just the U.S. media watching. Security experts say the global stage—including China—is closely scrutinizing every handshake, word, and nod between the two leaders. The meeting, officially billed by the White House as a “listening exercise,” was positioned by Trump as a discussion where no deals or concessions would be made. But experts warn that the ripple effects could extend far beyond Ukraine.
“Since China acts as a consistent supporter and enabler of Russia, of course they are watching the talks regarding Ukraine very closely,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė told Fox News Digital during her recent trip to Washington, D.C. She added that any U.S. concession could embolden Beijing to pursue a more hostile path in the Indo-Pacific, lowering perceived risks of retaliation.
The optics of the meeting, analysts say, matter just as much as the substance. For one, Trump indicated he would call European and Ukrainian leaders immediately after the Anchorage talks, hinting at hopes for a potential face-to-face meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin—possibly including Trump and key European figures. Still, questions remain about the true agenda.
Some experts worry Trump could be eyeing a deal with Russia unrelated to the war, particularly in the realm of critical minerals—a sector where the U.S. is trying to counter Chinese dominance. When asked about a potential minerals deal, Trump remained noncommittal, telling reporters, “We're going to see what happens with that meeting.” Yet, even the possibility of such an agreement raises red flags.
“Cutting a business deal with Russia while Putin continues his deadly campaign in Ukraine could be interpreted as aiding Moscow’s war chest,” said Craig Singleton, senior director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “It also risks sending a signal to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Trump values ‘deals over deterrence.’” Singleton explained that Beijing would likely interpret any leniency or transactional approach as an opening for gray-zone pressure in Asia, particularly around Taiwan.
The parallels drawn to past Cold War diplomacy are hard to ignore. Some are even asking: could this be the next Reagan-Gorbachev moment? The difference, experts warn, is that this scenario carries modern high-stakes complications, including the shadow of China’s strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. If Washington appears to be “selling out” Ukraine, the message Beijing could take away is stark: coercion pays and costs are manageable. In other words, aggression in Europe may normalize opportunistic behavior elsewhere.
Singleton also noted another striking element: the absence of Zelenskyy. While the Alaska meeting was reportedly initiated by Putin—who has so far refused to meet with the Ukrainian president—leaving Zelenskyy out of the conversation could carry a message that goes beyond optics. “From Beijing’s perspective, leaving Kyiv out widens the lane for a face-saving freeze that locks in Russia's battlefield gains,” Singleton said. “It’s an implicit nod that great powers can revise borders by force.” Such a precedent could inform China’s approach to territorial disputes in Asia.
This concern ties directly to broader allied trust. If the U.S. is perceived as negotiating without including the affected nation, doubts about American red lines may grow, potentially straining coordination with allies in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila. Singleton explained that Beijing could exploit these perceived gaps to amplify its influence, testing where deterrence holds and where it can push boundaries.
While the White House insisted the Alaska meeting was just an exploratory conversation, the stakes are enormous. Trump’s approach to diplomacy with Russia could inadvertently shift global power dynamics, emboldening Beijing while signaling to Moscow that transactional deals may outweigh deterrence strategies. The world is watching closely to see whether Trump balances negotiations with geopolitical responsibility—or whether short-term deal-making could have unintended long-term consequences.
Experts highlight that even minor signals—body language, phrasing, or noncommittal statements—will be dissected by international audiences. “Every concession or perceived softness will be scrutinized,” said Šakalienė. “Great powers are always reading each other’s moves, and the smallest gesture can have outsized impact.”
Meanwhile, European allies and Ukrainian officials remain in a delicate position. Trump’s pledge to consult them post-meeting is meant to reassure, but without concrete outcomes, doubts linger. The specter of unilateral decisions affecting Ukraine’s sovereignty has amplified concern across the Atlantic.
Looking ahead, the potential ripple effects are vast. If the meeting leads to progress—say, a Zelenskyy-Putin dialogue—it could mark a historic moment in diplomatic mediation. But if perceived missteps dominate headlines, it could embolden Russia and China simultaneously, creating a dual front of geopolitical challenges for the U.S. and its allies.
From Beijing’s perspective, the Alaska talks are more than a bilateral U.S.-Russia matter—they’re a test case for great power behavior. “If aggression pays in Europe, deterrence discounts in Asia,” Singleton said. In other words, what happens in Anchorage doesn’t stay in Anchorage. The outcomes will echo across continents, shaping strategic calculations from Washington to Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila.
Finally, the meeting underscores the intricate web of modern geopolitics: actions in one region can ripple across the globe, influencing everything from territorial ambitions to mineral markets to allied trust. As the world digests the Alaska summit, one thing is clear: every word, gesture, and report will be analyzed not just in Washington or Moscow, but in Beijing, Tokyo, and beyond. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and for global observers, the next moves will be critical in shaping the balance of power for years to come.
Login