Trump’s 2024 Odds Take a Hit Post-Biden’s Campaign Exit: What’s Next?
So, here’s the latest buzz in the political arena. Donald Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House in the 2024 election have seen a dip since President Joe Biden decided to step out of the race. This unexpected turn has left bookmakers recalculating the odds and political pundits buzzing with speculation.
The Shift in Odds
Just a week ago, on July 18, Trump seemed to be riding high with a 71% chance of winning, according to several bookmakers from the U.K. and Ireland. This was right after Biden had a rough debate performance on CNN back in June, which stirred up a lot of talk about whether he should even bother with a re-election bid. Fast forward to now, and the landscape looks a bit different.
Biden, acknowledging the pulse of his party and perhaps the nation, announced on Sunday that he wouldn't be running again. He emphasized it was in the “best interest of my party and the country” to step aside, making way for a new Democratic contender. In a move that surprised few, Biden endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, for the Democratic nomination.
Trump’s Chances: A Closer Look
With Biden out, Trump’s odds have slightly declined. Some bookmakers now peg his chances at 66%, while others are a bit more optimistic, holding at 69%. It’s a noticeable drop but not a game-changer, at least not yet.
Enter Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, thanks to Biden’s endorsement. Currently, her odds of winning the presidency stand at 33%. This might seem like a steep climb, but political landscapes can shift dramatically, especially with the dynamic duo of endorsements and public sentiment.
Harris confirmed her candidacy with a powerful statement, “I will do everything in my power to unite the Democratic Party—and unite our nation—to defeat Donald Trump and his extreme Project 2025 agenda.” This marks the beginning of what promises to be a fierce campaign season.
Biden’s Debate Debacle
To understand why Biden stepped down, we need to rewind to June 27. During a CNN debate, Biden, who is 81, stumbled through his performance, reigniting concerns about his ability to handle the demands of another presidential term. His physical and cognitive capacities were already under scrutiny, and this debate didn’t do him any favors.
Trump: The Oldest Nominee
With Biden stepping aside, Trump, at 78, is now the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history. If Harris secures the Democratic nomination, she will be 60 by the November election, making her 18 years younger than Trump. Age isn’t just a number in this race; it’s a significant factor for voters weighing experience against vitality.
Trump’s Legal Troubles
Trump isn’t just contending with political rivals; he’s also grappling with legal issues. He’s the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime, facing 34 felony charges for falsifying business records related to his hush money trial. Despite these legal hurdles, Trump remains defiant. On Truth Social, he taunted Biden, saying, “Tomorrow Crooked Joe Biden's going to wake up and forget that he dropped out of the race today.”
Democratic Unity
In the wake of Biden’s exit, prominent Democrats are rallying behind Harris. Figures like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have thrown their support behind her. This show of unity is crucial for the Democrats as they prepare for a tough battle ahead.
The Money Factor
Biden’s decision to end his campaign hasn’t just shifted political alliances; it’s also opened the floodgates for donations. The Democratic Party has seen a surge in public donations, a clear signal that the base is energized and ready for the fight ahead.
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