When Donald Trump first entered the White House, he brought his unique brand of diplomacy to the world stage, often surprising allies and adversaries alike. His strategy during his first term involved publicly cultivating relationships with some of the U.S.'s most contentious adversaries, including Russia and North Korea. Meanwhile, he applied intense pressure on other rivals, such as China and Iran. But as Trump begins his second term, the global landscape has shifted. Now, instead of facing separate, isolated adversaries, he's dealing with a more unified group of foes—one that has drawn closer in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
From the get-go, Trump has made it clear that his agenda for this term will focus heavily on ending Russia's war in Ukraine, curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, and countering China, all while strengthening the U.S. military. These are no small challenges, and the dynamics have evolved since his first time in office. In the years since, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have formed what many call a "no-limits partnership," where Beijing has provided Russia with vital economic support to continue its invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the stakes have grown significantly higher.
In an indication of how much deeper the ties between China and Russia have become, Putin and Xi held a lengthy phone conversation just after Trump was sworn in, where they proposed deepening their strategic partnership even further. The situation is now more complicated than ever: Russia has expanded its partnerships, signing strategic pacts with North Korea in June 2024 and with Iran just days ago. This alliance between four of the U.S.'s key adversaries—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—has raised concerns in Washington. According to Biden’s ambassador to China, this "unholy alliance" represents a real loss of leverage for the United States and its allies.
This new reality has created a significant dilemma for Trump, who has long expressed a desire to “get along with Russia,” yet at the same time is pushing for a harder stance on China. Analysts point out that the Russia-China partnership has severely limited U.S. ability to exert pressure on either Moscow or Beijing. As Daniel Russel from the Asia Society Policy Institute explained, the intertwined relationship between Russia and China means that Moscow is less likely to engage with Washington, while Beijing is much more resistant to U.S. economic or diplomatic pressure.
To make matters worse, the U.S. has seen Russia weather harsh Western sanctions with the help of Chinese support. While China has been buying Russian oil at discounted prices, it has also been supplying Russia with dual-use goods, which experts argue are essential to sustaining Russia’s military efforts, especially its defense industries. Although China has denied this, the evidence is hard to ignore. Meanwhile, North Korea’s role in the Ukraine conflict is also escalating—Pyongyang is supplying soldiers and weapons to Russia, all while making rapid advancements in its own nuclear missile program. Then there's Iran, which, despite being weakened by Israel’s attacks on its regional proxies, is still considered a major threat in the Middle East and could revive its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Trump’s team recognizes the complexity of the challenge ahead. In a November interview, Mike Waltz, the incoming National Security Advisor, highlighted how China’s purchase of oil from Iran is being used to fund missile and drone attacks into Russia, which then target critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State, has labeled China as the United States' gravest threat, pointing to the chaos and instability being stoked by Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang. For Trump, dealing with this global challenge requires a carefully crafted approach.
One strategy that Trump’s team seems to be exploring is peeling countries away from China. Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, believes that the Trump administration will focus on trying to separate Russia, North Korea, and Iran from China. Cooper suggests that Trump might look to differentiate these threats, rather than treating them as part of a monolithic bloc, in hopes of forging separate deals with Pyongyang and Moscow. This approach, however, may not be as simple as it sounds.
North Korea, for instance, may have less incentive to engage directly with the U.S. than it did in the past. Michael Froman, who served as U.S. Trade Representative under Obama, points out that North Korea’s relationships with Russia and China have only grown stronger. In fact, Trump’s earlier attempts to reach a deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may have set a precedent, but it’s unclear whether Pyongyang would still be interested in negotiating with Washington. That said, Trump’s team is reportedly once again exploring the idea of pursuing direct talks with Kim.
In the case of Iran, there are some cracks beginning to show in its relationship with Russia. Robert Wood, the former deputy U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Biden, has pointed out that Russia has previously abandoned its allies—most notably, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad—when it suited its interests. If Iran is paying attention to such moves, they may start to question how dependable Russia really is as an ally.
Looking at the broader picture, Trump seems poised to return to the hardline stance he took during his first term when it came to Iran. His strategy of imposing crippling economic sanctions on Iran was designed to force the country into negotiations over its nuclear program, its ballistic missile activities, and its actions in the region. With Russia, China, and North Korea forming a tight-knit bloc, experts agree that Trump’s best chance at breaking the impasse will be to strengthen U.S. alliances. In fact, this was something he often downplayed during his first term, but now, many believe it will be critical to success.
“The key to dividing these countries and reasserting leverage is strengthening U.S. alliances,” Wood argued. “You can’t take on all of these adversaries by yourself.” It’s a strategy that may involve strengthening ties with countries in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East in order to counter the combined influence of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. If the U.S. can draw clear distinctions between each of these nations and create fractures in their collective unity, it may be able to weaken their resolve. Ultimately, Trump’s second term presents a complex diplomatic puzzle. The landscape has shifted significantly since his first time in office, and the growing alliances between these powerful adversaries will require nimble, strategic thinking.
The challenges ahead are formidable, but for a president who thrives in high-stakes negotiations, there’s no doubt that Trump will approach these issues with a bold strategy and perhaps a willingness to rethink old alliances in pursuit of new objectives. Whether or not his approach will succeed remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: the world is watching.
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