As President Trump embarks on his first Middle East trip after securing re-election, his decision to skip Israel—America’s long-standing ally in the region—has raised eyebrows. This move follows a series of surprises and announcements by the Trump administration that have left Israel questioning the alignment of U.S. and Israeli interests on key regional issues.
For instance, earlier this week, a deal between the U.S. and Hamas led to the release of Edan Alexander, the last living American hostage held in Gaza after 18 months in captivity. While this was a victory for the U.S., it stirred mixed reactions in Israel. The country has long feared that the U.S. might engage in separate negotiations to secure its citizens’ release, potentially at the expense of broader regional concerns. Some on the left felt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t doing enough to free hostages, while others on the right feared that Netanyahu might cave to U.S. pressure and agree to a broader deal that could end the war before Hamas was defeated.
This was just one instance where Trump’s actions took Israel by surprise. In another surprising move, he abruptly ended a seven-week air campaign against the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, calling a truce even though the Houthis had not agreed to stop attacking Israel. The timing of the truce—shortly after a missile strike on Israel’s main airport—only heightened the sting. It was a reminder that the U.S. wasn’t always in sync with Israel’s security priorities, especially when it came to the broader Middle East strategy.
Trump’s decision to enter direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program was another source of friction for Israel. Netanyahu had hoped for the U.S. to give Israel the green light to take military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, but that prospect now seemed more distant. Even more concerning was Trump’s recent statement that he hadn’t yet decided whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium under a new nuclear deal, signaling that the administration might be flexible on this critical issue.
In addition to these shifts in foreign policy, Israel was also slapped with a 17% tariff on products exported to the U.S., despite efforts by Israel to ease tensions by scrapping levies on American goods. The tariff came as part of Trump’s broader “America First” economic policy, which aims to prioritize U.S. interests over long-standing alliances.
The growing sense in Israel is that Trump’s attitude toward the country has shifted significantly since his first term. Whereas he was once seen as one of Israel’s strongest allies, his second term is proving to be more unpredictable, with decisions that reflect a changing U.S. foreign policy direction under his leadership.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, summarized the shift by saying, “When Israelis thought of a second President Trump, what they had in mind was the first presidency.” However, the reality seems to be different. There is now a clear understanding in Israel that Trump isn’t their prime minister—he is the president of the U.S. And as such, his decisions are guided by America’s broader interests, which may not always align with those of Israel.
Trump’s ambassador to Jerusalem, Mike Huckabee, echoed this sentiment during a press conference, stating that the U.S. didn’t have to consult Israel on every decision it made. Huckabee’s comments underscored the sovereignty of both nations, emphasizing that Israel, like any country, has the right to make its own choices, even if they don’t always align with U.S. interests.
One of the key challenges for Netanyahu is his long-standing alliance with the Republican Party. As a result, he has found it more difficult to criticize or pressure Trump the way he did with former President Biden. This alliance complicates Israel’s ability to push back on some of Trump’s more controversial policies or decisions. In fact, Netanyahu’s confidant, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, recently traveled to Washington to meet with U.S. officials and get a clearer sense of where the two countries stand. The feedback from these discussions seemed to indicate that while there may be differences, the U.S. and Israel remain aligned on key issues such as Iran’s nuclear program and cease-fire negotiations in Gaza.
The situation isn’t entirely negative for Israel, though. Despite some of the tensions, most Israelis still view Trump as a more favorable leader than Vice President Kamala Harris, with 65% of those polled believing he would be more supportive of Israel’s interests. And since taking office, Trump has reversed some of the Biden administration’s policies that were seen as detrimental to Israel, including rolling back sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank and approving arms sales that had been frozen under the previous administration. Additionally, Trump has bolstered the U.S. military presence in the region by deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.
However, there’s no denying that Trump’s approach to the Middle East is evolving, and that evolution may not always be in sync with Israel’s interests. While the Trump administration has avoided pressuring Israel to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, there’s growing concern that U.S. policy is starting to shift away from prioritizing Israeli security. Yoel Guzansky, a former Gulf expert for Israel’s National Security Council, noted, “The U.S. is working on a different script in the region, it doesn’t necessarily contain Israel.”
At the heart of this shift is Trump’s desire for diplomatic and economic wins. As he looks to reposition the U.S. globally, there’s an emphasis on ending wars and securing favorable trade deals. This strategy has created a dynamic where countries in the Middle East—Israel included—are competing to secure Trump’s favor by offering something that aligns with his broader goals.
The tension within Trump’s own administration has only added to the uncertainty. Some of his senior advisers, such as Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, hold more isolationist views, which are often at odds with pro-Israel positions. These conflicting perspectives have created a complex web of policies that leave Israel in a precarious position as it navigates its relationship with the U.S.
By April, a survey from the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that Israelis were divided on how much Trump’s negotiations with Iran would prioritize their security. Some 46% of Israelis thought it would be a significant issue, while 44% felt it would be less important. This growing uncertainty reflects a shift in Israeli sentiment toward Trump, as many are left wondering how much of their security interests will be considered in U.S. diplomatic efforts.
As Michael Oren, a former Israeli envoy to the U.S., put it, there’s a genuine concern in Israel about Trump’s evolving foreign policy, though he’s unsure how justified that concern is. It’s clear that the once-unshakeable bond between the U.S. and Israel is now more complex, shaped by changing priorities, shifting alliances, and the unpredictable nature of Trump’s second term.
In summary, while President Trump’s first term was marked by strong support for Israel, his second term has been far more unpredictable. From shifting policies on Gaza to less-than-ideal timing of military actions and direct negotiations with Iran, it’s clear that Israel must now navigate a more uncertain and potentially less supportive U.S. relationship. Trump’s “America First” agenda is reshaping the Middle East, and Israel, as one of the U.S.’s closest allies, is left figuring out where it stands in this new global landscape.
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