U.S. Arms Sales Take a Hit as European Confidence Wavers
A Blow to U.S. Arms Sales
U.S. arms exports have hit another roadblock as Portugal has officially ruled out purchasing fighter jets from Washington. Meanwhile, other European nations are raising concerns over America’s reliability as a defense partner. These doubts have intensified following former President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily halt military aid to Ukraine—a move that sent shockwaves across NATO allies.
Portugal’s decision and the broader skepticism across Europe come at a time when U.S. arms sales to the continent have been at their peak. A report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), released on March 10, found that a significant 35% of U.S. arms exports from 2020 to 2024 were directed toward Europe. Even more notably, Washington’s arms exports surged by 21% when compared to the previous five-year period. But with growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments, European allies are now reconsidering their dependence on American weaponry.
Portugal Steps Back
In an interview with the Portuguese newspaper Publico on March 13, Portugal’s Minister of Defense, Nuno Melo, made it clear that his country is steering away from acquiring F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. to replace their aging F-16s. Instead, Lisbon is looking at European alternatives, citing unpredictability in Washington’s defense policies.
Melo emphasized that Portugal must make decisions based on the geopolitical climate, noting, “The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO and in the international geostrategic plan, must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”
He further pointed out that long-term maintenance, component availability, and the certainty of U.S. support in various scenarios are crucial factors. “We must believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side,” he stated. With this in mind, Portugal is now actively considering European-manufactured aircraft that could also bring economic benefits to the country.
Poland and Other Allies Express Concerns
Portugal is not alone in its apprehension. Poland, one of the U.S.’ most steadfast European allies, is also voicing concerns about America’s reliability as a defense partner.
Polish journalist Stuart Dowell recently took to social media to highlight potential risks tied to the U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). He referenced a previous intelligence blackout imposed by the Pentagon that briefly hampered Ukraine’s ability to utilize these systems. “Fears arose that America could disable them remotely,” Dowell noted. However, Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister, Cezary Tomczyk, reassured that Poland’s arms contracts safeguard against such vulnerabilities.
Poland has structured its HIMARS agreements directly with private U.S. arms manufacturers rather than the U.S. government. This distinction ensures that Poland has full operational control over the systems. Additionally, with plans to launch its own military satellites this year, Warsaw aims to achieve independent access to satellite intelligence, thereby reducing reliance on American data.
Broader European Doubts and Strategic Shifts
Beyond Portugal and Poland, other European nations are also rethinking their defense strategies. The United Kingdom, for instance, is reportedly concerned about continued U.S. support for Trident, the aging submarine-launched nuclear missile system critical to its national defense. According to The Guardian, this concern has pushed discussions on alternative defense partnerships.
Meanwhile, the European Commission is exploring collective arms procurement from within the European Union. This shift could significantly reduce Europe’s dependency on the U.S. for military hardware. As reported by the Financial Times, the EU’s move comes in response to Washington’s increasingly unpredictable defense commitments.
Industry and Expert Reactions
Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, sought to downplay Portugal’s decision, emphasizing its long-standing partnership with the Portuguese Air Force. In a statement to Politico, a Lockheed Martin spokesperson reiterated, “The F-35 is the most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter aircraft in the world, enabling 21st Century Security and allied deterrence.” However, the company also deferred questions about foreign military sales to the U.S. government.
Not everyone is convinced of America’s reliability. Bob Holley, a retired U.S. foreign service officer, expressed strong criticism online, stating, “No freedom-loving country anywhere on the planet that cares for its own self-defense should be buying U.S. equipment now. Unreliable supplier and in important cases, unreliable equipment. There are good alternatives available in Europe. Protect yourselves!”
Former U.K. Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind echoed similar sentiments. Speaking to The Guardian, he warned, “It really is necessary for Britain and France to work more closely together because if American reliability ever came into question, then Europe could be defenseless in the face of Russian aggression. The contribution by America must now be to some degree in doubt, not today or tomorrow, but over the next few years and certainly as long as Trump and people like him are in control in Washington.”
The Big Picture
The uncertainty surrounding U.S. arms sales is not just about individual deals—it’s about trust. For decades, America has been the go-to supplier for European defense, but shifting political landscapes and unpredictable policy changes have shaken that foundation. With nations like Portugal actively looking elsewhere and Poland bolstering its autonomy, the future of U.S. arms sales in Europe is at a crossroads.
The question remains: will Washington’s European allies continue to rely on the U.S. for their defense needs, or will they pivot toward homegrown solutions? One thing is clear—the old security dynamics are evolving, and the U.S. will have to work hard to maintain its role as Europe’s top arms supplier in the years to come.
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