The shape of a peace plan for Ukraine is starting to emerge, much like an object rising slowly to the surface of the water, yet still submerged. The Trump administration, known for its vocal stance on various issues, has maintained relative silence regarding this war. However, the coming weeks might bring significant developments that could lay the groundwork for future negotiations. The critical question remains: Will the Kremlin take the bait?
Last week, President Donald Trump made a notable move by appointing 80-year-old retired Gen. Keith Kellogg as his envoy to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg wasted no time in making his presence felt. One of his first major steps was announcing his intent to discuss the administration’s vision for peace at the Munich Security Conference from February 14-16. Just days later, he is scheduled to visit Kyiv—his first long-awaited trip to Ukraine, as reported by Ukrainian state media. This move has stirred anticipation and speculation among political observers and Kyiv officials alike.
Trump himself has been vocal about ending the conflict, though his ideas remain elusive. Over the weekend, he told The New York Post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin about resolving the war. However, he provided no details, leaving the Kremlin to either confirm or deny the conversation. Russian spokesperson Dmitri Peskov offered a vague response, stating, "There could be something I don’t know."
While one might expect a carefully orchestrated diplomatic effort to end the biggest war in Europe since World War II, the reality is more chaotic. The players involved appear to be struggling to align their strategies, creating a public spectacle more akin to an off-key karaoke performance than a cohesive symphony.
Kellogg, keenly aware of the scrutiny he faces, dismissed speculation that the Munich conference would serve as a stage for unveiling a peace plan. Speaking to Newsmax, he clarified, “The person who will present the peace plan is the President of the United States, not Keith Kellogg.” This suggests that any major revelations will come directly from Trump after Kellogg has consulted with allies in Germany.
Interestingly, Kellogg’s vision for peace has been available to the public since April, serving as a stable reference point for any upcoming negotiations. His proposal includes increasing military aid to Ukraine, contingent on their participation in peace talks, and establishing a ceasefire. There’s also a possibility of deploying European peacekeepers along the frontlines, an idea that has sparked both interest and skepticism.
One of the more contentious aspects of Kellogg’s outline involves Ukraine potentially holding elections during a ceasefire period. A proposed timeline, reportedly leaked to Ukrainian media, suggested a ceasefire around Easter in late April, a peace conference in May, and presidential elections in August. The Ukrainian government was quick to reject these claims as fake news, but leaks—authentic or otherwise—continue to surface as different parties test the waters.
The idea of elections raises critical concerns. Some see it as a maneuver to gently push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of office, perhaps as a means of enticing the Kremlin to the negotiating table. Zelensky has remained steadfast in his resistance to Putin, whose invasion has ravaged Ukraine and led to allegations of war crimes. His relationship with Trump has also been complicated, particularly after the controversy during Trump’s first term over Ukraine’s involvement in investigating the Biden family.
Speculation about Zelensky’s future is growing, particularly as he enters a phase where the two most powerful voices in any peace deal—Trump and Putin—do not necessarily see him as indispensable. Leading in some Ukrainian presidential polls is Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former military chief dismissed by Zelensky last year. Currently serving as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Zaluzhnyi was recently seen meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Kyiv.
Under martial law, elections in Ukraine are postponed, with a strong argument that they cannot be conducted freely while the country remains under attack. Millions of Ukrainians are either engaged in combat or living as refugees, and Russia has a long history of interfering in Ukrainian elections. However, a ceasefire could create a brief window of calm—potentially giving Zelensky an opportunity to step aside gracefully and allow a fresh face to negotiate peace with Moscow.
Yet, holding elections in a war-torn country is fraught with risks. The process could be riddled with corruption, cyber-attacks, or even foreign interference. Any electoral chaos could undermine stability, and the mere idea of negotiations might embolden pro-Russian factions within Ukraine. Officials are also wary of corruption investigations, which could lead to further internal instability. These are the perils of wartime politics, making the prospect of elections one of the most contentious elements of any peace plan.
Meanwhile, another major question looms: Does the Kremlin even want peace at this stage? Russian forces continue to make slow but steady advances. Reports suggest they have captured Toretsk and are closing in on Pokrovsk, pushing deeper into Ukraine’s Donetsk region. If they break through, they could have a relatively open path toward the strategic cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. Given these gains, Moscow may see no reason to halt its progress unless compelled by overwhelming diplomatic or military pressure.
As the details of any potential peace plan trickle into the public domain, the stakes remain extraordinarily high. The decisions made in the coming weeks will shape the future of Ukraine, influence European security for decades, and even impact global power dynamics—Taiwan, for example, watches closely to see whether Russian aggression is rewarded or restrained.
Ultimately, the world waits as the outlines of a plan inch toward the surface. Whether it becomes a serious pathway to peace or another fleeting illusion remains to be seen.
Login